An occluded front produced a brief period of high winds for the Central Oregon Coast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
An occluded front produced a brief period of high winds for the Central Oregon Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 20, 3:15 AM PST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
315 AM PST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING BREEZY AND RAINY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC LOOKS RATHER POTENT...WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SW WA MON THAT WILL BRING RAINY
WINDYCONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE REGION. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...RAIN WAS SPREADING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WAS STILL ABOUT 75 NM
OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE
OREGON COAST MEASURED ABOUT 10 MB...EXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
MORE AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNING FOCUSED ON THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND BEACHES AS THIS FRONT
MOVES IN. WHILE POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL WITH THE FRONT
TODAY...RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
EARLIER THIS MONTH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK LIKELY TO PEAK
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE OREGON COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE CASCADES SUPPORT HOLDING ON TO SNOW ADVISORY IN
THE S WA CASCADE FOOTHILLS WHERE SNOW LEVELS COULD DIP AS LOW AS 2K
FT TODAY...BUT FURTHER S WILL LIMIT WINTER WEATHER ADVIORY FOR SNOW
TO THE CASCADES ABOVE 2500 FT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY
ALSO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT DOWN NEAR HOOD RIVER TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL
EARLY THIS MORNING...GENERALLY ABOUT 34 DEGREES WITH A 34 DEWPOINT.
THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL GORGE LIKELY TO BE MORE
OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE GORGE WILL HANG ON TO THE ADVISORY THERE ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TO JUST AROUND AN INCH IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT TODAY AIR MASS TURNS MORE
SHOWERY IN A WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MON. A STRONG WESTERLY
PACIFIC JET BEGINS TO POKE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY MON
AS THE NOSE OF THE 250/300 MB JET REACHES THE S OREGON COAST WITH
WINDS UP TO 140 KT. MODELS HAVE COME IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS INLAND ACROSS SW WA
DURING THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS IMPRESSIVE ON SEVERAL ACCOUNTS...IT
IS MOVING RATHER FAST... ITS W TO E TRACK IS AN ODDITY IN ITSELF...A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 TO 990 MB IS RESPECTABLE FOR MOVING INLAND
OVER THE PACIFIC NW...AND THE LOW MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
INLAND. WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MEASURED
THE LENGTH OF THE OREGON COAST ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 20 MB AS IT
MOVES INLAND...IT LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE NORMAL WINDSTORM FOR THE
COAST. ONE DETRIMENT THOUGH IS THE GRADIENTS FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY
WIND WHICH LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL
JET...WHICH PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WIND
SPEEDS SEEN IN THE UW WRF-GFS AND MM5-NAM. IN LOOKING FOR AN
HISTORICAL COMPARISON...THE WINDSTORM OF JAN 7-8 1990 BEARS A STRONG
RESEMBLANCE IN A NUMBER OF KEY AREAS...FROM THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET. THE STORM OF NOV 3 1958 ALSO BEARS SOME SIMILARITIES. BOTH OF
THESE HISTORICAL STORMS SUGGEST THE WIND POTENTIAL EXTENDS WELL
INLAND ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND E OF THE CASCADES. WHILE AN
UNUSUAL LOOKING EVENT...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND HISTORICAL
COMPARISONS SUGGEST IT HARBORS STORNG WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...SO WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCHES. THE BEST BETS
FOR WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NW OREGON...AS
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW MAKE THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
WINDS EXTENDING UP INTO SW WA A LITTLE MORE IFFY.
WHILE THE SYSTEM BRINGS GOOD MOISTURE WITH IT...THE SPEED OF THE
STORM IS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN. OFFSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW
LEVELS LOW IN THE GORGE AND UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY SUN NIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT MON
AFTERNOON PROMISES GOOD OROGRAPHICS FOR SNOW IN THE CASCADES INTO
MON EVENING...BUT THIS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY LATER MON NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM APPEARS ON TRACK TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN
BACK INTO THE REGION TUE WITH SNOW CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...BROAD ZONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN AROUND 2000-3000 FT...THIS IS A VERY
GOOD PATTERN TO BRING LOTS OF SNOW TO THE CASCADES AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE COAST RANGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF RAIN AND SNOW AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN CASCADES
AND WILLAMETTE VALLEY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 500 TO 1000 FT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM EARLY ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD MIX IN A FEW
SNOWFLAKES ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY FLOOR.
FURTHER SOUTH...SNOW LEVELS STAY UP AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FT. BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY...RIDGING BUILDS IN ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA AND KEEPING THE AREA DRY INTO SATURDAY. WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME
SUN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
-MCCOY
&&
.AVIATION...A FRONTAL RAIN BAND MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GO FROM A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO MAINLY MVFR WITH
PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KHIO.
AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARDS PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS 21Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT ANY POINT AFTER 03Z
MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW IN ATTEMPTING TO IDENTIFY
WHICH SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO DETERIORATE AT THIS POINT. A WARM
FRONT SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN
MANY LOCATIONS TRENDING TO MVFR TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL PRODUCE DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND TOWARDS VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND 15Z TO 18Z SUNDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TOWARDS 12Z
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION WITH
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY POINT AFTER 03Z MONDAY. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WATERS. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH 5 AM...AND THROUGH 6 TO 7 AM ACROSS THE INNER
WATERS. EXPECT LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE EVEN FURTHER
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS IN THE MID TO UPPER TO TEENS
THIS MORNING TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS SUNDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANY BREAK IN THE WINDS AND SEAS LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...SOMEWHERE ON THE ORDER 0F 980 TO
995 MB MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTH-ISH WASHINGTON COAST MIDDAY MONDAY.
STRONGER SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY BRING STORM FORCE WINDS WITH EVEN
THE WEAKER SCENARIOS BRINGING SOLID GALE FORCE WINDS. GIVEN ALL
MODELS SHOW SOME SCENARIO THAT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS...WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A STORM WATCH FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM MONDAY. AT THIS
POINT...THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGH SEAS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AM AND NOON ON MONDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 45
TO 55 KT APPEAR LIKELY WITH SEAS LIKELY CLIMBING ABOVE 20 FT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD IF THE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE.
EITHER WAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT BRIEFLY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC LATE MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE A
BIT. ONCE AGAIN...THE BREAK APPEARS SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER FRONT
RACES INTO THE WATERS AND BRINGS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A
WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 20 TO 30 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOME ON WAVE
HEIGHTS SO CONTINUED WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH TO THE
FORECAST. NONETHELESS...GIVEN TIDES AND RIVERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
RELATIVELY HIGH COMPARED TO NORMAL...HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO KEEP MARINE ISSUES ELEVATED. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS
TO RELAX BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLDS OF 10 FT AND 21 KT FOR A
12 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD AROUND THIS TIME. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
COLUMBIA-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-SOUTH WILLAMETTE
VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CENTRAL
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 PM PST
MONDAY.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple of weather stations along the Central Oregon Coast measured peak wind gusts of 60 to 61 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611902.