Damaging Wind in Ohio, June 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT.

CONVECTION IS A TAD SLOW TO GET GOING...BUT GETTING CLOSER TO THE
UPPER 80S CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE. LOOKING AT 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 8C/KM RANGE
DURING PEAK HEATING AROUND 21Z. BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 35KTS...LENDING TO SOME CELL
ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AS IT NOW APPROACHES CMH.

MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CLEARING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT
THIS TYPICALLY NEEDS TO BE WATCHED AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE SPEED
BUMP TO THE EAST. SO THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...EXPECTING TO BE ABLE TO LOSE THE CONVECTION IN A TIMELY
MANNER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND COAL FIELDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT.

EXPECTING A DRIER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES IN THE
850-650MB RANGE. KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE OH VALLEY EXTENDS INTO WV
STAYING IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ALONG THE WV/KY BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
SFC LOW LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE NAM AND SREF MODELS BRING THE
BULK OF QPF THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS LAGS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE
BRINGING THE PCPN TO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...SPC
HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS INDICATE A GREAT DEAL OF DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ON THURSDAY WITH
SFC CAPE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.9 INCHES.
THESE CONDITIONS POSE A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. CODED LIKELY POPS CLOSER TO THE
NAM/SREF SOLUTION SPREADING SOUTHWEST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WEDNESDAY...BUT LESS WARMER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE SREF GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO WAFFLE NORTH AND SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO EASY WAY TO FIGURE OUT POPS SO A MORE BROAD BRUSH
APPROACH WILL BE USED.

THE MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT COMING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY.

LINE OF CONVECTION GETTING ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO. CANNOT
ONLY TRACK THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS FOR TIMING TO THE
TERMINALS...BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE
COMING HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE CMH/CVG LINE...AND IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF CONVECTION.

STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS...AND COVERED
THIS WITH TEMPO GROUPS OF MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES WITH GUSTS TO
30KTS.

TIMING IS THE KEY ISSUE AGAIN...WAITING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO GET
GOING AND ORGANIZED. TEMPOS AND AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MOVING INTO TERMINALS AND VICINITY
ARE DEEMED SEVERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY. AMENDMENTS AND TEMPOS
LIKELY.

.AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047-241745-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-241745-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-231900-
VINTON-MORGAN-WASHINGTON-ATHENS-JACKSON-PERRY-
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PERRY...
VINTON...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...MORGAN...NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND
ATHENS COUNTIES...

AT 219 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCONNELSVILLE TO NEAR
CHILLICOTHE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...NELSONVILLE...GLOUSTER...MCCONNELSVILLE...MCARTHUR...
BEVERLY...SHAWNEE...CHESTERHILL...LAKE HOPE STATE PARK...CHAUNCEY...
HAMDEN...NEW STRAITSVILLE...MALTA...CORNING...BUCHTEL...LOWELL...
STOCKPORT...JACKSONVILLE...MURRAY CITY AND TRIMBLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

LAT...LON 3976 8165 3967 8164 3966 8159 3959 8158
      3958 8148 3965 8145 3959 8135 3957 8104
      3907 8279 3937 8275 3937 8252 3940 8251
      3939 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217 3955 8216
      3960 8237 3964 8238 3977 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 306DEG 27KT 3977 8173 3942 8300

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

OHZ075-085-232000-
ATHENS-MEIGS-
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MEIGS AND ATHENS
COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR NELSONVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...NELSONVILLE...ALBANY...CHAUNCEY...BUCHTEL...STROUD RUN STATE
PARK...DARWIN AND THE PLAINS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 3931 8183 3930 8183 3930 8182 3927 8182
      3909 8203 3928 8226 3929 8226 3929 8228
      3931 8230 3947 8228 3947 8217 3949 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 310DEG 17KT 3944 8228

12