Multiple short wave troughs lifted over North Dakota and combined with strong instability and plenty of moisture to produce severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota. Large hail was the main threat from the storms, with sizes up to golf ball reported in McKenzie and Grant counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
Multiple short wave troughs lifted over North Dakota and combined with strong instability and plenty of moisture to produce severe thunderstorms over parts of western and central North Dakota. Large hail was the main threat from the storms, with sizes up to golf ball reported in McKenzie and Grant counties. A few severe wind gust reports were received, with the strongest being 65 mph, in Mercer County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 1:53 PM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED SLIDING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT WAVE OVER OUR AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A PAIR OF WAVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH...WITH A VARIETY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES BEHIND. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE PARADE OF SHORT WAVES LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST HIGHER INSTABILITY (2-3 KJ/KG) OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH SHEAR IS MARGINAL...GREATEST TO THE NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS THE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN TRAINING STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE WET WITH MODELS ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ~160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ON THURSDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOWER VALUES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE SEVERE THREAT TO BE QUITE LIMITED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REGARDING A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN MOVES EAST TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. HAVE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN CHANCES ARE BETTER FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS THEN DEVELOP A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA...AND BRING THE WESTERLIES AND HENCE THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN A MORE WEAKER AND ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW OR NO CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 SCT TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT...BRINGING LCL IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH WILL WAIT TO SEE IF NEXT MODELS RUNS ALSO ADVERTISE THIS BEFORE MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJS LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...JJS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 222 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-161930- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER- STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN- LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 222 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY CENTRAL THURSDAY...WITH A CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AREA WIDE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK AT 1-800-247-0212 OR VIA FACEBOOK OR TWITTER. JJS/JV
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 249 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 NDZ042-152115- GRANT ND- 249 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY... AT 248 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF CARSON...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELGIN...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CARSON...LARK...LEITH AND HEIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 4606 10145 4605 10174 4648 10184 4649 10131 TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 177DEG 19KT 4624 10156 DILLAHUNT/SCHILD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
357 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N EDGELEY 46.46N 98.72W
07/15/2015 M1.50 INCH LAMOURE ND CO-OP OBSERVER
RAINFALL RECEIVED WITHIN AN HOUR
&&
ACSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
NDZ025-037-152145-
STUTSMAN ND-FOSTER ND-
410 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STUTSMAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN FOSTER COUNTIES...
AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KENSAL...OR 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENSAL AND COURTENAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 4724 9884 4740 9884 4737 9850 4734 9850
4733 9847 4715 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 281DEG 24KT 4728 9866
SCHILDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
NDZ042-152145-
GRANT ND-
321 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY...
AT 321 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CARSON...OR 16 MILES EAST OF ELGIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CARSON AND LARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 4641 10167 4663 10161 4664 10158 4651 10130
4650 10130 4637 10153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 205DEG 12KT 4648 10153
SCHILDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 451 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 NDZ034-042-152215- MORTON-GRANT- 451 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND SOUTH CENTRAL MORTON COUNTIES... AT 450 PM CDT /350 PM MDT/...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FLASHER OVER RALEIGH...OR 25 MILES EAST OF ELGIN...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLASHER...LARK AND RALEIGH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. LAT...LON 4631 10121 4629 10138 4660 10156 4664 10117 TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 171DEG 19KT 4638 10132 VINING
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 504 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 NDZ034-042-152230- MORTON-GRANT- 504 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN MORTON COUNTIES... AT 504 PM CDT /404 PM MDT/...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES EAST OF HEART BUTTE DAM...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLEN ULLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. LAT...LON 4653 10152 4652 10178 4686 10188 4688 10149 TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 176DEG 21KT 4661 10166 VINING
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:22 UTC.
10 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported the strong thunderstorm wind gusts.
A trained spotter reported that large tree branches were broken.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 594939, 594940, 594937, 594938, 594941, 594942, 594943, 594944, 594945, 594946, 594947, 594948.