A surface and mid-level low lifted across the Dakotas, followed by an upper level short wave trough. Snow quickly developed in the late morning and continued through the afternoon into the evening hours before gradually diminishing.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A surface and mid-level low lifted across the Dakotas, followed by an upper level short wave trough. Snow quickly developed in the late morning and continued through the afternoon into the evening hours before gradually diminishing. The highest snow amount of eight inches occurred in Rolette County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 22, 9:39 AM CST, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 939 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1520 UTC INDICATE THAT THE 700-900 MB DRY LAYER HAS NOT YET BEEN SUFFICIENTLY ERODED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR SNOWFALL TO REACH THE SURFACE. 15 UTC RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE LAYER WILL QUICKLY SATURATE IN THE 16-17 UTC TIMEFRAME. OVERALL...THE 12 UTC WRF-NMM/ARW...NAM NEST AND 11-14 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS SUPPORT THE TREND FROM THE 00 AND 06 UTC GLOBAL SUITES OF A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE SNOWBAND TODAY AS COMPARED TO RUNS YESTERDAY...WITH NOW LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR BISMARCK/MANDAN. UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS INTO THE HOURLY POP FORECAST THROUGH 15 UTC. RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND DURING THE LAST 90 MINUTES...AND WHILE NO PRECIPITATION REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED YET...THE 12 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING IS NEARLY SATURATED ALOFT...SO SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP BY MID MORNING. NOTE THAT OVERNIGHT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS /INCLUDING THE ESRL HRRR/ HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL TODAY...SO THE ACCUMULATION FORECAST STAYED THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 ACCUMULATING SNOW IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WERE NOTED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SURFACE WINDS WERE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED IN THE MODELS AT H925 AND H850. AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS CENTERED OVER WYOMING. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BUT INTENSITIES WERE INCREASING SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE AND H700 LOW ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...REACHING THE ND/MN/MANITOBA BORDER BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH VERTICAL MOTION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS TRACK. THE MODELS INDICATE A DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FARTHER SOUTH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE WARMER EARLY ON THIS MORNING WHEN THE BEST VERTICAL MOTION IS FORECAST. SO THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS VALIDATE THE ONGOING FORECAST OF MORE PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL NORTH CENTRAL VERSUS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE WARM AIR LAYER OFF THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY...AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT AS ROBUST WITH PRECIP OUTPUT AS THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND USED A BLEND OF HIGH RES AND GLOBAL MODEL SNOW RATIO METHODS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AROUND 6 AM CST...AND INCREASE QUICKLY BY AROUND 9 AM CST. THE GREATEST FORCING MOVES INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND/AFTER 9 AM CST AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD SEE THE MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SHOULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW BY TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL OF 3 TO OVER 5 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. WILL ADD BOTTINEAU COUNTY TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH WILL INCLUDE WESTHOPE AND BOTTINEAU...VELVA AND TOWNER...AND POINTS EAST TO RUGBY AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE LOCALES THAT REACH 6 INCHES OR A BIT MORE...BUT IN GENERAL 3 TO 5.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS IN THE ADVISORY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST...BUT LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROWAL FEATURE KEEPS THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS MONTANA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 COOL AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL IN THE LONG TERM. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...A BROAD AND LOW-AMPLITUDE 500-MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH DEEPER AND DYNAMICALLY- ENERGIZED TROUGH CENTERED ON THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY. THAT TRANSITION COULD YIELD LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY OR MORE SO ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ANY LIGHT SNOW IS MODEST AT BEST AS SPLIT FLOW TAKES SHAPE ALOFT...AS EXEMPLIFIED BY THE 00 UTC ECMWF...WHICH WAS A DRY SOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL BE COLDEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN LOWS WILL BE AROUND 0 F AND HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS F PER A 00 UTC MULTI-MODEL BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 929 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT KMOT/KJMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT KJMS AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING AT KMOT. IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY AT KISN WITH A BRIEF LATE AFTERNOON BREAK POSSIBLE BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS STRATUS AT KBIS/KDIK TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MUCH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW COMPARED TO THE OTHER TERMINALS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ004- 005-012-013-022-023-025. && UPDATE...AYD SHORT TERM...JV LONG TERM...CJS AVIATION...AYD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 859 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-231500- BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-MCHENRY-PIERCE-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER- 859 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED. SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR FULL DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. NDZ001>003-009>011-018>021-034>037-231500- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER- MCLEAN-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN- 859 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. NDZ017-031>033-040>048-050-051-231500- MCKENZIE-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT- BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY- 859 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015 /759 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. AYD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1135 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1132 AM SNOW HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
12/22/2015 M1.2 INCH WELLS ND TRAINED SPOTTER
SNOW CONTINUING IN HARVEY WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING.
1.2 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR.
&&
KSIMOSKOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1148 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1147 AM SNOW 5 NW GEORGE LAKE 48.16N 100.46W
12/22/2015 E1.5 INCH MCHENRY ND TRAINED SPOTTER
ESTIMATED 1.5 INCHES THUS FAR... STILL SNOWING.
&&
KSIMOSKOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1214 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1212 PM SNOW 4 NW SELZ 47.90N 99.95W
12/22/2015 E2.5 INCH PIERCE ND TRAINED SPOTTER
2.5 INCHES THUS FAR. STILL SNOWING WIITH VISIBILITY ONE
HALF MILE AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 MPH.
&&
KSIMOSKOPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1219 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1218 PM SNOW 7 SSW ANAMOOSE 47.80N 100.30W
12/22/2015 E2.0 INCH SHERIDAN ND TRAINED SPOTTER
WIND UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
&&
KSIMOSKOThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Locations near Towner and Velva received six inches of snow.
Locations near Mylo received eight inches of snow.
Locations near Willow City received seven inches of snow.
Locations near Berwick received six inches of snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609904, 609905, 610543, 610544.