Hail in North Carolina, September 4, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
358 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RESURGENCE OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOTH THE APPROACH OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...SURFACE HEATING...AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM A SMALL CLOSED LOW OVER THE AREA OF MICHIGAN AND
WISCONSIN. COVERAGE HAS BEEN THE LEAST OVER PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FOR MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CHANGE HAS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES
TO HEAD SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET THANKS TO BOTH
THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA AS TIME PROGRESSES. BY
MIDNIGHT...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS
WILL HELP REGENERATE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AFTER AN INITIAL
DECREASE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
THOSE REALIZED THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY START TO NOSE ITS WAY SOUTH
ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE A
COUPLE DAYS AWAY...BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS SATURDAY AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT BE TOO WEAK AS TO PREVENT
THE DEVELOP OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT ANY THAT FORM WILL NOT BE AS
POTENT AS THOSE OF TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT TEN
DEGREES COOLER THAN THOSE OF TODAY. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...

WILL START SATURDAY EVENING OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING
SOUTHWARD AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS...RESULTING
IN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW. THE UPSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE RIDGES
MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT EXPECT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS LEFT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY TO WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY. THE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL MAKE FOR CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOW 80S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. MAY ALSO SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES DUE TO THE UPSLOPE
WINDS...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. RAINFALL WILL
AGAIN FIZZLE AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

FOR LABOR DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST...DECREASING
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
SHIFT INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TO DRAW MORE UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO OUR AREA. AS SUCH...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL ALSO SEE
INCREASED INSTABILITY AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS
THE AREA...AND THEREFORE EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...RESULTING IN SLOW
CELL MOVEMENT...WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS
REMAIN PARKED OVER LOCATIONS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE ON A WARMING TREND...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S WEST TO THE UPPER 80S EAST.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE...
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A
FEW MID/UPPER 50S IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. PATCHY MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A GENERAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EARLY
EACH AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNSET
AS HEATING ENDS. EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ON TUESDAY
DUE TO WEAK SUPPORTING DYNAMICS...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
EACH DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

BY NEXT THURSDAY...LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST MODELS DIFFER AS TO
WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGING
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE THE GFS MODEL KEEPS THE FRONT WELL
TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
GIVE THE FRONT A SOUTHWARD PUSH...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS MODEL
AND TRIMMED BACK RAIN CHANCES FOR THAT DAY.

EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 80S
FOR THE PIEDMONT. LOWS WILL HOLD GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...PERHAPS WITH A FEW UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES...LOCATIONS UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CORES WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES/MARGINAL
VISUALFLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS.

OVERNIGHT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH A DEEPER PORTION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. LOOKING FOR LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LAST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. AS MOISTURE BANKS UP
INTO AND ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE...LOOK FOR INCREASING AREAS OF
MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS WITH POCKETS OF INSTRUMENT
FLIGHT RULES CEILINGS AND MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
VISIBILITIES FOR MIST.

SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT A GRADUAL TREND
OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING TO VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AROUND
NOONTIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR LOCATION IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANY IN THE PREVAILING WEATHER OF THE TERMINAL AERODROME
FORECASTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN EASTERLY FETCH WILL HELP
MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY
A FEW STORMS...WILL LIKEWISE START TO INCREASE. PAST
SATURDAY...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PRIMARILY BE VISUAL
FLIGHT RULES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LINGERING PATCHY MARGINAL
VISUALFLIGHT RULES ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO...OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MOUNTAIN AND RIVER VALLEY
INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES/MARGINAL VISUAL FLIGHT RULES FOG/MIST ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE WEEKLY UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON SEPTEMBER 3RD
SHOWS THE EFFECT OF A DRIER THAN NORMAL AUGUST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...D0 ON THE DROUGHT SCALE HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED INTO A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA COVERING
MUCH OF THE DAN AND LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASINS. PARTS OF THE UPPER
YADKIN RIVER BASIN IN NORTH CAROLINA ARE ALREADY IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT. AUGUST RAINFALL WAS AS LOW AS 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR
LESS IN PARTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SEVERAL NWS COOPERATIVE
CLIMATE STATIONS IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA RECORDED WELL UNDER 2 INCHES
OF RAIN THE ENTIRE MONTH OF AUGUST INCLUDING HUDDLESTON IN BEDFORD
COUNTY AT 1.17 INCHES AND ROCKY MOUNT IN FRANKLIN COUNTY AT 1.36
INCHES.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-050800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
259 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VAZ019-024-042000-
ROCKBRIDGE-ALLEGHANY-
259 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
WESTERN CITY OF BUENA VISTA...CITY OF LEXINGTON...ROCKBRIDGE AND EAST
CENTRAL ALLEGHANY COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR BELLS VALLEY...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...
GLASGOW...
GOSHEN...
AND LEXINGTON CITY.

THIS INCLUDES VMI.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3796 7926 3762 7941 3761 7946 3757 7944
      3769 7967 3770 7967 3772 7969 3776 7967
      3778 7972 3795 7959 3804 7952 3808 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 045DEG 17KT 3798 7942

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
303 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NCZ019-041930-
WILKES-
303 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTY...

AT 303 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MAPLE SPRINGS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELKVILLE...
MAPLE SPRINGS...
DARBY...
AND WILKESBORO RESERVOIR.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3604 8137 3604 8140 3607 8141 3608 8143
      3609 8146 3609 8147 3610 8148 3610 8151
      3612 8154 3614 8150 3621 8146 3624 8142
      3612 8125 3602 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 040DEG 45KT 3613 8140

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VAZ019-WVZ044-507-042015-
ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-MONROE-
317 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
ALLEGHANY...SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE
COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NEOLA...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
LEWISBURG...
WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
RONCEVERTE...
AND NEOLA.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3800 8000 3795 8005 3795 8004 3794 8003
      3796 8000 3760 8026 3776 8058 3805 8025
      3804 8021 3804 8016 3806 8011 3806 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 028DEG 15KT 3796 8012

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
321 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

NCZ006-VAZ044-058-042015-
CASWELL-HALIFAX-PITTSYLVANIA-
321 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
CASWELL...CITY OF DANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

AT 321 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR ELMO...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...
SOUTH BOSTON...
YANCEYVILLE...
BETHEL...
AND HALIFAX.

THIS INCLUDES DANVILLE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3641 7953 3648 7952 3691 7915 3679 7889
      3654 7902 3654 7914 3628 7915 3624 7917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 028DEG 15KT 3667 7919

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VAZ023-024-034-035-042045-
BOTETOURT-BEDFORD-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
338 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CITY OF BUENA
VISTA...NORTHWESTERN AMHERST...SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE...EAST
CENTRAL BOTETOURT AND NORTHERN BEDFORD COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SNOWDEN...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUENA VISTA...
BEDFORD...
GLASGOW...
BUENA VISTA CITY...
AND BIG ISLAND.

THIS INCLUDES THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3780 7932 3773 7912 3727 7945 3739 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 034DEG 16KT 3765 7934

KK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 ENE COVINGTON CITY    37.80N 79.94W
09/04/2015  E1.00 INCH       ALLEGHANY          VA   PUBLIC

            DOLLY ANN DRIVE

&&

FISHER