Another complex area of low pressure tracked from the Gulf of Mexico to the Virginia coast November 9-10, bringing a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the area, but heaviest over the southern sections which were already fairly wet from rains the previous week. Precipitation was highest across parts of northwest North Carolina especially in Watauga County; where six-hour rainfall…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Another complex area of low pressure tracked from the Gulf of Mexico to the Virginia coast November 9-10, bringing a swath of moderate to heavy rainfall across much of the area, but heaviest over the southern sections which were already fairly wet from rains the previous week. Precipitation was highest across parts of northwest North Carolina especially in Watauga County; where six-hour rainfall amounts from 12Z to 18Z on the 9th approached 3 inches in some areas. A Flood Advisory (FLS) was issued for Watauga County as several stream gages approached or exceeded flood stage and several of the normally flood prone areas of the county saw high water and road closures. Several low water bridges along the Watauga River were under water by 200 pm and the river gage at Sugar Grove (SGWN7) crested at 9.84 feet just below the Moderate Flood Stage of 10 feet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 9, 9:58 AM EST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 958 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN WEDGED DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL TODAY INTO TUESDAY. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 955 AM EST MONDAY... LEADING EDGE OF RAIN HAD ADVANCED TO A HINTON TO BUCKINGHAM LINE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN ROUGHLY 925 AND 850 MB. DO NT EXPECT MUCH RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT VALUES AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. AS OF 215 AM EST MONDAY... ANOTHER DAMP AND DREARY PERIOD TO START THE WEEK WITH THE LOW LEVEL WEDGE LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ENHANCED VIA PRECIP INTO DRY AIR INITIALLY AND THEN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BROAD WARM ADVECTION TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERRUN THE COOL POOL LOCKED IN PLACE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN BECOME MORE BROKEN UP WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG OVERNIGHT. MAY EVEN START WITH A BIT OF SLEET OVER THE WEST IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND DRY AIR BUT WONT MENTION. THIS DRYNESS COULD ALSO TEND TO SLOW DOWN ONSET A LITTLE BUT APPEARS BY 12Z SHOULD SEE SATURATION REALLY SET UP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES WITH A BAND THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE SOUTH. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL APPEARS OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING UPSLOPE COMBINE...THEN BLUE RIDGE EAST INTO THE EVENING WITH AN INITIAL WEAK PASSING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION WITH THE STRONG COASTAL FRONT TO PERHAPS LIMIT INFLOW AND SUBSEQUENT RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHAT BUT APPEARS THAT WONT HAPPEN UNTIL MAINLY OVERNIGHT. THUS TRENDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WETTER NAM ESPCLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY ON. FFG LOOKS HIGH ENOUGH TO HANDLE EXPECTED .75-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN GIVEN LOWER RATES SO WONT HOIST A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE POPS INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHILLY HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...BUT COULD STAY OR FALL BACK INTO THE 30S BLUE RIDGE PENDING TIMING OF RAINFALL AND DEGREE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING. BEST DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING THE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN MORE SOUTH THEN WESTERLY LATE AS THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND TO THE EAST WITH THE COASTAL FRONT. NAM LOOKS OVERDONE AND TOO FAR INLAND WITH A SECONDARY UVV MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT WHILE THE GFS LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH THE DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE COULD SEE RAIN KEEP REDEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH PER ENSEMBLES OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIEST NW AND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE HIGH PWATS WILL LINGER. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AS THE WEDGE WEAKENS LATE ALTHOUGH TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM IN BREAKING DOWN THE CAD BY MORNING GIVEN LINGERING RAINFALL. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM EST MONDAY... ON TUESDAY MORNING...A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTHEAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY. DESPITE A GRADUAL WESTERLY SHIFT IN WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. THE NAM WEATHER FORECAST MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN CLEARING SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE...HOLDING RESIDUAL SHOWERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW...WILL HOLD CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TIMING. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHSIDE. REALLY NO COLD AIR IS FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED...HELPING TO HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S WEST TO THE UPPER 60S EAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL ENTER OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BEFORE DAWN ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN... SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 MPH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BELIEVE THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND HELICITY FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THAT ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRAW THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST...CLEARING OUR AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. AGAIN...REALLY NO COLD AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW...WE CAN EXPECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO THE MID 60S EAST. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO THE MID 40S EAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY ROTATE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. UNDER BREEZY CONDITIONS...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO LOWER 30S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE US WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. UNDER SUNSHINE...HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH READINGS IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 535 AM EST MONDAY... CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AS RAIN AND LOW CIGS ADVANCE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A QUICK DROP IN CIGS TO MVFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS KLWB STAYING VFR UNTIL LATE MORNING. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AS THE RAIN/DRIZZLE INCREASES. SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION NORTH ALONG THE COAST. A LEE SIDE WEDGE WILL DEVELOP WITH A RESULTANT STRONG INVERSION. LOOK FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING IN THE WEST AND AFTERNOON IN THE EAST AS THE JET ABOVE THE INVERSION REACHES 40-45 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL TREND TO LIFR/IFR LEVELS DURING THE DAY WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR FOR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN AND ALSO LIGHT FOG. RAIN TAPERS OFF TO DRIZZLE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING BUT WILL SEE LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS REMAIN IN PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG AND RESIDUAL RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. APPEARS WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS LIKELY WITH MVFR OR WORSE VSBYS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IMPROVING BACK TO VFR WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER AND IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/JH SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...AMS/DS/JH/WP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 433 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 NCZ001>006-018>020-100945- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN- 433 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING INTO THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-100945- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL- FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER- SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER- 433 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-100945- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE- 433 AM EST MON NOV 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 142 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:57 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads were reported closed with flooding reported at Boone Mall parking lot, sections of Deerfield Road, Bamboo Road and a section of Roby Greene Road as well as several roads close to the Watauga River.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608466.