Flooding and Heavy Rain in North Carolina, November 18 to 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW MORNING...COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...WITH EVEN COLDER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OVER THE REGION IN
ITS WAKE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL BAND OF RAIN NOW COVERS MOST OF THE CWFA
WEST OF I-77. EMBEDDED WITHIN ARE A FEW LINEARLY ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDS THOUGH NOT EVEN LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED IN OUR AREA OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO. INSTABILITY IS PROVING HARD TO COME BY SO
FAR. RAP HAS BACKED OFF/DELAYED EARLIER PROGS OF INCREASING SBCAPE
OVER OUR LOWER PIEDMONT AREAS...NOW SUGGESTING THEY WON/T SEE MUCH
FORM UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
LOOKS LIKELY TO WORK INTO OUR WRNMOST ZONES IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. A PENCIL-THIN BAND OF ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED RIGHT ALONG
THE SFC FRONT OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...AND DESPITE STRONG
UPPER FORCING THIS DOES NOT STAND MUCH CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MTNS. PRESENT PLANS ARE TO KEEP THE TORNADO
WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 A.M. BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS
CURRENTLY SHRINKING...IT WOULD APPEAR.

AS FAR AS HYDRO...MOST SITES AWAY FROM UPSLOPE AREAS ARE REPORTING
RATES OF 0.15 TO 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR IN GENERAL...WITH SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT COMING AS CONVECTIVE FEATURES PASS THROUGH. RATES/ACCUMS
REPORTED BY MESONET GAGES ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OF COURSE ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER. I REVISED QPF AND THE STORM TOTAL PRODUCT WITH
EXTRA WEIGHT ON THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE WHICH AS A WHOLE REFLECTS A
SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP. WE ARE SEEING SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD
ISSUES IN THE USUAL AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS. THE LATER POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION HOWEVER DOES STILL IMPLY SOME LONGER-DURATION TYPE
ISSUES MAY RESULT OVER PARTS OF THE UPSTATE.

AS OF 235 PM...MID AFTERNOON KGSP WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 3-6 KFT
WINDS WERE FROM THE SE BETWEEN 40-45 KTS. NEAR TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE SOURCED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL LIFT ACROSS NE GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY 23Z. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SOLID 4 TO
6 HOURS OF ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE MODERATE RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES BEFORE THE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND ARRIVES. AS
OF 230 PM...OBSERVED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED FROM 3.2 INCHES NEAR
LAKE TOXAWAY TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SALUDA GRADE.

THIS EVENING...12Z GFS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT H3...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SOUTH-NORTH
160KT JET WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA...EXITING AFTER 3Z.

CAMS INDICATE THAT A WIDE BAND PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL
SLIDE EAST ACROSS EASTERN TN/NRN GA BETWEEN 23Z TO 1Z. NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND INDICATES 0-1
KM SHEAR OVER 400 M2/S2...AND 300-500 J/KG OF SB CAPE...AND 0-1
KM EHI AS HIGH AS 1.25 M2/S2 ACROSS THE LAKELANDS. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS RISE AFTER 0Z THURS. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS...I WILL INCREASE THE MENTION OF TSRA ACROSS THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. IN AGREEMENT WITH
UPDATED DY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...I WILL ADD A MENTION OF SVR TSRA
ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY IN THE HWO.

SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
A PASSING WINDOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED THE 1-3 HR FFG ACROSS
THE MTNS...FOOTHILLS...THE WESTERN UPSTATE...AND EXTREME NE GA. IN
ADDITION...A COUPLE OF OPERATIONAL FORECASTS ALONG MAIN STEM RIVERS
INDICATE STAGES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. I WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE RAINFALL THREAT WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EST...BRIEF AND SHALLOW NW FLOW MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LEAVING
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THE ZONAL
FLOW...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO FRI WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO SATURDAY WITH NE WINDS
AROUND THE SFC HIGH. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE TO
THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM...WITH JUST LATE DAY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH STEEP UPPER TROFFING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE MODELS DIFFER WRT THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROF OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS AMPLIFIES THE SYSTEM AND MOVES THE TROF AXIS RIGHT OVER THE CWFA
LATE SUN/EARLY MON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT IN THE TROFS WAKE WITH HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF...ON THE OTHER
HAND...LIFTS THE TROF NE OF THE REGION ON SUN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
DEVELOPING A POTENT SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN TROF. THIS
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY APPROACHES THE FCST AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY MON
AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATER THAT DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH HEIGHTS RISING AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES BACK
OVER THE REGION THRU MIDWEEK.

AT THE SFC...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FCST AREA BY
THE START OF THE PERIOD AS ITS PARENT LOW PASSES OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA QUICKLY
WITH COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION AGAIN IN
ITS WAKE. THE GFS HAS THE HIGH LINGERING OVER THE REGION THRU DAY 7
WITH IT SHIFTING NE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRIES TO
SPIN UP A LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY MON AND MOVE THE
SYSTEM NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT
REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT DOES NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT OUR
SENSIBLE WX. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...I ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP ALONG THE NC/TENN BORDER FOR EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THRU WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. THE TEMPS/THICKNESSES LOOK
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IF PRECIP DOES
DEVELOP...BUT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME WARMING ON TUES
AND WED AS THICKNESSES RECOVER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND EARLY THU
MRNG. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY MVFR
CIGS AND PERHAPS OCNL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED TS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT ACRS THE FIELD
CLOSER TO DAWN. MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE LATER WITH THE
FRONT...AND TIMING NOW SUGGESTS IMPACTS DURING EARLY MORNING OPS AT
THE FIELD. WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING HANGS ON BY A THREAD. A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET PRECEDING THE FRONT AND JUST ATOP THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME MARGINAL LLWS ISSUES MOST OF THE NIGHT. AS
WEDGE BOUNDARY RETREATS JUST BEFORE DAWN SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
HINTS AT POSSIBLE SFC BASED CONVECTION...WHICH IN THE PRESENCE
OF STRONG SHEAR WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS...IF IT
FORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE JUST AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY RETURNING TO VFR. SFC WINDS VEER TO NW BY MID-AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...RESTRICTIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. ANY HEAVY RAIN EASILY
WILL BE CAPABLE OF IFR VSBY. EVEN AFTER RAIN TAPERS OFF BEHIND
THE BAND SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK...SO LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL LINGER. AN OCCASIONAL LLWS
THREAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER PARTS OF THE NC MTNS UNTIL DEPARTURE OF
LOW LEVEL JET PRECEDING INCOMING FRONT. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AND NAM
DO INDICATE ENOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS OVER THE UPSTATE
TO EXPECT A FEW TSRA WILL DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...AND GIVEN THE
ROBUST WIND SHEAR BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE A POSSIBILITY. VFR
EXPECTED ONCE MRNG RESTRICTIONS MIX OUT...WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY
CLEARING. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SE OVERNIGHT TO NW TOMORROW...LATE
MRNG IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND AFTN PIEDMONT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO THE HIGHER NC MTNS SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       MED   72%     MED   73%     LOW   53%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   77%     MED   70%     MED   79%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   67%     MED   70%     LOW   50%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       MED   69%     HIGH  83%     LOW   53%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   64%     MED   75%     HIGH  91%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   79%     MED   76%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>007-010-
     011.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ006-007-192330-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-012>014-019-192330-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN UPSTATE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS
OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING OR WIND DAMAGE TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-SCZ005-010-011-192330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AN ORGANIZED LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF AND WEAK TORNADO EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING OR WIND DAMAGE TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-192330-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

AN ORGANIZED LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF AND
WEAK TORNADO EAST OF INTERSTATE 85.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...FREEZE POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING OR WIND DAMAGE TO OUR OFFICE.

SCZ003-192330-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
616 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF GREENVILLE
COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...FREEZE POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-182315-
HAYWOOD NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-GRAHAM NC-MACON NC-
445 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
JACKSON...SWAIN...GRAHAM...NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD AND WESTERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EST...

AT 443 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ANDREWS TO 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLAIRSVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

BRYSON CITY...ROBBINSVILLE...CHEROKEE...SANTEETLAH...FONTANA
VILLAGE...OCONALUFTEE AND THE BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY-SMOKY MOUNTAINS TO
BALSAM GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3552 8388 3556 8377
      3556 8350 3566 8335 3566 8330 3573 8324
      3573 8318 3548 8315 3506 8356 3515 8365
      3515 8374 3523 8369 3526 8371 3525 8385
      3522 8396 3523 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 219DEG 38KT 3526 8398 3494 8390

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ010-017-NCZ062-182330-
RABUN GA-HABERSHAM GA-MACON NC-
547 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HABERSHAM...RABUN
AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 546 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FRANKLIN TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTH OF
CLEVELAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...CORNELIA...BALDWIN...DEMOREST...
MOUNT AIRY...HIGHLANDS...ALTO AND MOUNTAIN CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8362 3465 8366 3473 8362 3479 8366
      3485 8366 3494 8360 3495 8355 3499 8355
      3500 8348 3500 8352 3513 8364 3531 8332
      3523 8329 3523 8322 3516 8322 3508 8315
      3449 8346 3449 8354 3443 8362 3450 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 251DEG 29KT 3509 8355 3469 8357 3446 8370

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ010-NCZ059-062>064-SCZ001-190030-
RABUN GA-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
MACON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
626 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RABUN...
JACKSON...SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...MACON AND NORTHERN OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EST...

AT 625 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
FRANKLIN TO 5 MILES EAST OF CLAYTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...SYLVA...CLAYTON...CULLOWHEE...HIGHLANDS...MOUNTAIN CITY...
WEBSTER...TIGER...DILLARD AND SKY VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8351 3501 8351 3515 8350 3551 8319
      3551 8317 3547 8314 3530 8293 3501 8292
      3499 8294 3495 8292 3470 8335 3473 8338
      3473 8341 3475 8343 3473 8348 3474 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 225DEG 27KT 3505 8337 3491 8331

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-010-190130-
FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-ELBERT GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-ANDERSON SC-
724 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF HART...
NORTHWESTERN ELBERT...STEPHENS...FRANKLIN...OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EST...

AT 723 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOMER TO 6 MILES
NORTH OF ATHENS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...SENECA...HARTWELL...WALHALLA...CARNESVILLE...ROYSTON...
WESTMINSTER...REED CREEK...AND LAVONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

LAT...LON 3417 8310 3423 8308 3427 8312 3424 8317
      3426 8330 3423 8335 3426 8334 3433 8339
      3443 8338 3446 8340 3448 8346 3496 8294
      3479 8288 3474 8290 3473 8285 3465 8283
      3463 8285 3464 8282 3427 8269 3411 8303
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 238DEG 28KT 3434 8348 3406 8335

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
829 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-190215-
HART GA-ELBERT GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
829 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN HART...
NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT...SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE...PICKENS AND ANDERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EST...

AT 827 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SENECA TO 12 MILES WEST OF ANDERSON TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF HARTWELL...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDERSON...EASLEY...CLEMSON...SENECA...HARTWELL...PICKENS...
POWDERSVILLE...PIEDMONT AND BELTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EST FOR NORTHEASTERN
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3414 8296 3443 8293 3466 8313 3506 8269
      3478 8245 3466 8247 3461 8244 3441 8243
      3421 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 230DEG 30KT 3466 8301 3448 8286 3426 8289

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
924 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

SCZ002-003-005>007-010-012-190330-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-
SPARTANBURG SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-LAURENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
924 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...AREA OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN PICKENS...WESTERN SPARTANBURG...GREENVILLE AND
EASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EST...

AT 923 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
EASLEY TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF ANDERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...EASLEY...GREENVILLE EASTSIDE...WEST
GREENVILLE...GREER...MAULDIN...TAYLORS...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA AND
FIVE FORKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE
RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM EST FOR CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3433 8256 3464 8252 3494 8268 3520 8227
      3519 8217 3495 8202 3468 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 235DEG 29KT 3488 8254 3468 8245 3443 8248

MOORE