Deep southerly flow advected rich moisture into the forecast area as a deep trough remained situated west of the area. Precipitable water values were near record highs and 4-5 standard deviations above normal.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Deep southerly flow advected rich moisture into the forecast area as a deep trough remained situated west of the area. Precipitable water values were near record highs and 4-5 standard deviations above normal. This lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across the region, which had a flash flood watch in effect. Widespread 1-2 inches of rain occurred, with a few isolated areas receiving upwards of 3 inches. A couple locations experienced flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 23, 10:30 AM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1030 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A WEDGE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY TODAY...THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A MARITIME WARM FRONT THAT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL THEN DIRECT UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX PW OF 1.8 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 14-15C...CONTINUES AROUND THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEDGE FRONT IS HOLDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC WESTERN PIEDMONT AND INTO UPSTATE SC...WHILE A COASTAL WARM FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SURGE INLAND AS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IN THE WEDGE AIRMASS...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE...PERIODICALLY DISPERSED BY SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE PIEDMONT. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WEDGE FRONT ERODING AND 60S DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH FORSYTH CO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MLCAPE POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 J/KG...WILL ALSO CONTINUE INLAND...ALTHOUGH WITH RAIN ALMOST CONTINUOUS IN THE PIEDMONT IT'S STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR WILL MIX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE 45- 50KT...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS BEST. LOW-LEVEL IS ENHANCED BY A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND SHERBE VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 1 THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. GOING AGAINST THE SEVERE THREAT IS A GENERAL LACK OF A FOCUS...AS A NOTABLE MCV OVER NORTHERN GA SHOULD MOVE MORE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...AND RAP SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A SMALL CAPPING INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD LIMIT THE ALREADY WEAK MUCAPE. HOWEVER...THE SPC MARGINAL RISK STILL LOOKS WARRANTED GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW AND UNUSUAL AIRMASS FOR LATE DECEMBER. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE 60S IN THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE 65-75 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. -22 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP OUT OF THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...AGAIN HAVING A GOOD CHANCE OF MATCHING THE ALL-TIME WARMEST DECEMBER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON RECORD(RDU-69...FAY-69...GSO- 65). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 355 AM WEDNESDAY... ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA. WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED PROBABLE CAPPING INVERSION DEPICTED ON NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE A DRY ONE...THOUGH DIURNAL HEATING OF THE UNSEASONABLY WARM (70S TO AROUND 80 IN IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR) AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CU TO BYPASS THE CAP AND GROW INTO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION...AN UPSTREAM QLCS...IN A REGION OF RESIDUALLY STRONG H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIRECTED INTO THE TN VALLEY...MAY SUPPORT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A WEAKENING LONE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND DRIFT INTO WESTERN NC...INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY THU NIGHT. INCREASING CINH WITH NOCTURNAL "COOLING" INTO THE 60S FAVORS A DRY NIGHT OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY... THE STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO EAST-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MILD-WARM REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND A WET ONE PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE POSITIONING OF A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND CONSEQUENTLY HOW MUCH SUPPRESSION OF THE WARMTH OCCURS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...DICTATED BY A BATTLE BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND CONFLUENT SPLIT FLOW ALOFT/UNDERLYING POLAR HIGHS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND BY THIS WEEKEND. THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL COLD FRONTAL SURGES INTO NC...IF THEY OCCUR...ARE FAVORED LATE FRI NIGHT-SAT...AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT- MON...WITH THE FORMER APPEARING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY TO AFFECT CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE UNSEASONABLY MILD-WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL. THE PRIMARY BRANCH OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE BLOCKED TO THE NW BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING...SO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY AOB 20 PERCENT) AND INSTEAD DRIVEN BY LOWER AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED SURGES OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND BRIEF EROSION OF A CAPPING INVERSION FRI-SAT...WITH SAID CAPPING MORE LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME BY DIURNAL HEATING IN AN AIRMASS MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF APRIL-MAY THAN LATE DECEMBER. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS WARM SECTOR OVERTAKES THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME IFR AND LIFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE UP AND DOWN TODAY...BOUNCING FROM VFR TO IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE DESTABILIZE. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT KINT AND KGSO...PERHAPS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM AIR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY FINALLY HELP TO SCOUR OUT THE LINGERING WEDGE AIRMASS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE...GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS...STRONGEST IN THE EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...THOUGH A STEADY 10 TO 15KT SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. OUTLOOK: A MOIST DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SUPPORT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY EACH MORNING... ALONG WITH THE TREAT OF SOME SHOWERS EACH DAY. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE 1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE AREA SINCE 1910. DEC 24: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM GREENSBORO 71 (1964) 52 (1904) RALEIGH 75 (1931) 59 (1891) FAYETTEVILLE 78 (1931) 66 (1990) DEC 25: RECORD MAXIMUM HIGH MINIMUM GREENSBORO 74 (1955) 58 (1932) RALEIGH 75 (1955) 63 (1932) FAYETTEVILLE 79 (1932) 68 (1932) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...2 NEAR TERM...CBL/22 SHORT TERM...2 LONG TERM...2 AVIATION...CBL CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-240945- FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON- RICHMOND- 440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-240945- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH- EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 1. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 902 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 NCZ021-022-038-231700- FORSYTH-GUILFORD-DAVIDSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE 902 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015 ...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS MORNING... POCKETS OF DENSE FOG...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO JUST A HUNDRED FEET OR SO...CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DISPERSE THE FOG AT TIMES...AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:28 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Twenty reports of high water were received across the city of Durham, from the late morning to early afternoon. This resulted in several street closings.
Bolin Creek rose out of its banks and impacted areas near Estes Drive in Chapel Hill. During the morning hours, the fire department had to transport people off the flooded road. Later in the day, flooding became worse as more heavy rain fell.
Several roads were closed due to high water near Polkton.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 610192, 610193, 610194.