Periods of moderate to heavy rain over a 3-day period resulted in 4-6 inches of rain across portions of the northern North Carolina foothills by the morning of the 2nd. Some minor flooding developed across northern Burke County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain over a 3-day period resulted in 4-6 inches of rain across portions of the northern North Carolina foothills by the morning of the 2nd. Some minor flooding developed across northern Burke County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 2, 9:44 AM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
944 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MONITORING RIVER LEVELS ACROSS THE
MTNS AS A FEW LOCALES REMAIN ABOVE ACTION STAGE...WITH A FEW SITES
APPROACHING/EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE...THUS FLOOD WARNINGS REMAINS
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. VISBS AREA WIDE CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
AS ENCROACHING PRECIP BANDS WORK TO SCAVENGE FOG...THUS WILL LET
DFA EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MARCH
THIS MORNING WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE GREAT TN VALLEY
AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING FOR THE MTNS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER AROUND NOON.
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN RATHER SLOW...THUS KEEPING
HEALTHY POPS IN THE FCST OVER THE NC/SC PIEDMONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THUS...TWEAKED POPS PER LATEST CAMGUIDE/NAM WHICH
DIDNT REALLY YIELD ANY SIG CHANGES AS CAT POPS REMAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY FOR MOST ZONES...LOWERING TO LIKELYS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE QUICKLY DRYING OUT INTO EARLY EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EWD THRU THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MTNS PROBABLY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWFA THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. STRONG JET STREAK IN EXIT
REGION OF THE TROUGH IS ORIENTED SUCH THAT A POCKET OF APPRECIABLE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACRS THE AREA. MOISTURE IS
MOST PLENTIFUL EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH DRY SLOT WORKING INTO THE
UPPER LEVELS OVER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER DAYBREAK. REMNANT COLD POOL
FROM THE CAD EVENT EARLIER IN THE WEEK IS STILL PRODUCING LOW LEVEL
UPGLIDE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT ERODES IT ENTIRELY.
THE HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE KEEPING UP WITH
THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THRU THE CWFA ATTM. THIS BAND
APPARENTLY RESULTED FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING RIDE
ATOP THE COLD POOL. WHILE THIS LEADING BAND IS TIMED TO EXIT THE
NC PIEDMONT WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS...ADDITIONAL PRECIP BANDS
ARE STILL TO OUR WEST NEARER THE FRONT. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS
THESE MAKING IT INTO OUR AREA AND DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY AS
THE UPPER SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTH...AND PERHAPS
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AS WELL. POPS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
A BRIEF LULL BEHIND THE INITIAL BAND BUT INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
FRONTAL BANDS MOVE IN.
STRONG FLOW ALOFT INVOF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW BRISK WIND GUSTS
TO OCCUR THIS AFTN OVER THE MTNS AS COLD ADVECTION BEGINS. SOME
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT BUT THE LATER ARRIVAL OF
THE FRONT IMPLIES LESS MIXING BEHIND IT AND CALMER CONDITIONS
RETURNING SOONER. HOWEVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. ON ACCOUNT OF THE STRONG FLOW...0-3
KM SHEAR PARAMETERS DO INCREASE TO VALUES THAT ARE TOO BIG TO
IGNORE. INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED BY THE MOIST PROFILES AND THUS
POOR LAPSE RATES...BUT BASED ON SREF PLUMES IT IS REASONABLE TO
EXPECT 50-100 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST CWFA
/NEAR CHARLOTTE/. SAME PLUME PRODUCT SHOWS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONCURRENTLY EXHIBIT AT LEAST 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THUS...AS
THE FLOOD THREAT TAPERS OFF...A NONZERO THREAT OF A DAMAGING WIND
EVENT WILL RAMP UP. OF COURSE WITH INSTABILITY BEING SO SMALL ANY
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE LOCALIZED AND SHORT-LIVED.
CONTINUED DRYING EAST OF THE MTNS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
AND TEMPS TO DROP TO WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CLIMO VALUES FOR MINS. A
SECOND SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REACH THE MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...ENOUGH TO EXPECT SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO RESULT
ALONG THE TENN BORDER. ACCUMS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN A DUSTING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM WEDNESDAY...THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL.
THE UPPER TROF AXIS SHOULD CROSS OVERHEAD THURSDAY MORNING AND ANY
NW FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LIFT OUT/DRY UP EARLY IN THE DAY. WILL NOT
HAVE ANY MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCE ON THE TN BORDER AFTER DAYBREAK.
WIND SHOULD BE GUSTY FIRST THING IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NOT TO ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
MODELS STILL SHOW A RELATIVELY CONVOLUTED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
ON FRIDAY...BUT THAT DEGENERATES TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD
CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. TEMPS
WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...THE INITIAL PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD
BE A CONTINUATION OF QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. FROM THAT POINT
ONWARD...CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FORECAST TO ROLL ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY AS A CLOSED LOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WHILE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE TOO MUCH ON PRECIP AMTS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CHANCE POP. THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW SHOULD TAKE THE PRECIP OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THIS FASTER TIMING WAS NOTED PARTICULARLY IN
THE ECMWF...SO THE FCST IS DRY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING
ONCE RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO MOVE THRU...ALLOWING BASES TO LIFT VIA
RAIN-INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. UNTIL THEN...AT LEAST PERIODIC VSBY BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMA IS POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER CIG BEGINS TO LIFT AND FOG
ABATES...IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG ON INTO MID-AFTN. VFR FINALLY
COMES WITH FROPA...CLEARING OUT BY DAYBREAK THU. SOME GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTN INVOF THE FRONT. WINDS VEER TO NEAR
DUE W DURING THE EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER LIFR CIGS...PARTICULARLY
AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS REMAINED SPOTTY AND LIGHT EARLY THIS A.M. MORE
INTENSE BANDS OF RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING APPEAR
LIKELY TO CREATE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO BRING CONDITIONS UP. CAN/T BE
OVERLY OPTIMISTIC HOWEVER GIVEN THAT WE ARE COMING OUT OF A COLD
AIR DAMMING EVENT AND WILL STILL HAVE SATURATED LOW LEVELS UNTIL
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PASSES IN THE AFTN. KAVL APPEARS TO ALREADY
BE GETTING SOME OF THE WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE...BUT IN LOWER ELEVATIONS WINDS WILL NOT VEER UNTIL AFTN OR
EVENING...BECOMING GENERALLY NW OVERNIGHT. BRISK GUSTS WILL BEGIN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE TONIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION OVER THE
MTNS /AND KAVL/. THE PIEDMONT MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT MED 73% HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 71% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 80% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND LOW 59% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-048>053-
058-059-062>065-501>510.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ070>072-
082.
SC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>003.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ009-014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEYHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1002 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003- 031515- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL- SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD- POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 1002 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-031515- FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN- GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1002 AM EST WED DEC 2 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. CDG
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
947 AM EST WED DEC 02 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0946 AM FLOOD HOT SPRINGS 35.89N 82.83W
12/02/2015 MADISON NC PUBLIC
FLOODING OF RIVER ROAD.
&&
07The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
EM reported Warrior Fork overflowed its banks and flooded Spainhour Rd at Bost Rd. Lower Creek also briefly flooded Antioch Rd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611574.