Hail in New Mexico, October 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
350 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHILE
MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THIS
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
HEAVY RAINFALLS. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE AND COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TRAILING TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BACKING DEEP
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF IT TRANSPORTING RATHER ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE
ABOVE 50 MOST AREAS WHILE RISES TO AROUND .8 TO 1.1 INCHES WEST TO
EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL THEREFORE BECOME SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPES AROUND 600 TO 1200 J/KG. SO
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY MIDDLE AND
EASTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH PATTERN EVOLUTION STILL VERY CONDUCIVE
FOR A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT MID LEVELS WHICH WILL
SUSTAIN DEEP MOISTURE INFLOW. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ADVECTING A COOLER BUT STILL MOIST AIR. THUS
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABOVE AN INCH MOST AREAS
WITH MUCAPES STILL AROUND 600 TO 1200 J/KG. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL EJECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF PRIMARY
LOW WITH ALL THESE FACTORS SUSTAINING THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS WILL BE PRIMARY WEATHER
THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WITH CONTINUED DEEP SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AHEAD OF IT TRANSPORTING YET MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH 6 KM AGL SOUTHWEST AROUND 40 TO 50 KT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RESULTANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MEANS
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE SHOULD INCREASE PROVIDED AIR
MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES/SUPERBLEND NOW IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT IN MOVING CLOSED LOW SLOWLY THROUGH NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
WITH SYSTEM POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME THREAT OF RAIN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 03/12Z-04/12Z.
SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ALSO WIDESPREAD CEILINGS FROM 5000 TO 10,000 FEET AGL.
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WHILE
MOIST AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THIS
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
HEAVY RAINFALLS. IN ADDITION TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. COOLING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE WILD FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 87  64  77  60 /  50  70  60  50
SIERRA BLANCA           84  60  73  56 /  40  60  60  50
LAS CRUCES              83  57  76  55 /  50  60  50  50
ALAMOGORDO              84  59  78  58 /  50  70  70  50
CLOUDCROFT              64  43  58  40 /  60  70  60  50
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   82  55  75  56 /  30  40  40  60
SILVER CITY             74  50  69  51 /  20  20  50  70
DEMING                  84  56  76  56 /  30  40  40  60
LORDSBURG               81  54  76  55 /  10  20  40  60
WEST EL PASO METRO      87  64  78  62 /  50  60  60  50
DELL CITY               86  60  76  57 /  40  60  60  40
FORT HANCOCK            88  64  76  60 /  50  60  60  50
LOMA LINDA              82  59  73  56 /  50  70  60  50
FABENS                  88  62  77  59 /  50  70  60  50
SANTA TERESA            85  61  76  59 /  50  60  50  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          84  60  76  58 /  50  60  50  50
JORNADA RANGE           83  55  76  52 /  50  60  50  50
HATCH                   84  55  77  54 /  40  50  50  60
COLUMBUS                85  58  76  58 /  30  40  40  60
OROGRANDE               83  62  75  59 /  50  60  60  50
MAYHILL                 73  48  64  45 /  60  70  60  50
MESCALERO               73  47  68  45 /  60  70  70  50
TIMBERON                72  49  63  47 /  60  70  60  50
WINSTON                 74  48  68  50 /  30  20  50  70
HILLSBORO               80  50  74  51 /  30  30  50  70
SPACEPORT               84  53  77  52 /  40  50  50  60
LAKE ROBERTS            74  42  70  44 /  20  20  50  70
HURLEY                  77  51  71  51 /  20  20  40  60
CLIFF                   79  46  74  48 /  20  20  50  70
MULE CREEK              77  44  73  46 /  10  20  40  70
FAYWOOD                 78  52  72  51 /  30  30  50  70
ANIMAS                  84  54  77  56 /  10  20  40  50
HACHITA                 83  54  76  55 /  20  30  40  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          83  54  75  54 /  20  30  40  50
CLOVERDALE              80  53  72  53 /  20  30  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05 ROGASH

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