A fast-moving upper level disturbance moved over southeast New Mexico during the morning of May 8th. Strong to severe thunderstorms quickly developed over Roosevelt and Curry counties ahead of this atmospheric wave due to a moist and unstable environment near the surface.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A fast-moving upper level disturbance moved over southeast New Mexico during the morning of May 8th. Strong to severe thunderstorms quickly developed over Roosevelt and Curry counties ahead of this atmospheric wave due to a moist and unstable environment near the surface. The storms only lasted about an hour in New Mexico before moving into the Texas panhandle, but the strongest storm managed to produce golf ball size hail near Dora, New Mexico. No damage resulted from the hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 8, 4:33 AM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 533 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOCUSED IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS ALONG THE TX BORDER WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING WESTWARD. FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR LOW CLOUDS AT KTCC WITH CLOUD DECKS ENCROACHING FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KLVS HOWEVER IT IS MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MIX A POTENT DRY SLOT TO THE SURFACE AND CREATE GUSTY S/SW WINDS BY LATE MORNING ALL AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING FOR KGUP/KFMN. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015... .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING NEAR A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO DROP THE SNOW LEVEL TO 7000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL ALSO STEER THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY KEEPING SHOWERS... THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS WILL BRING COOL AIR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER MONDAY...GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... THERE IS A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM TODAY...MAINLY IN UNION COUNTY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW HEADED TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS FROM CA. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY FILL...AND IT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK MAY ONLY TOUT 700 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KT...BUT A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW IN SE CO ON SATURDAY WILL CREATE A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NM FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND DEPTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE NW COAST THAT WILL DRAW THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST ECMWF BACK PEDALED ON THE MID WEEK MOISTURE SURGE...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL FRIDAY. THE GFS ALSO IS NOT AS WET AS IT PROGGED LAST NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE RICHEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD REACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... A DRY SLOT EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NM ALREADY SHOW THIS DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS INTO THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY THUS PROVIDING THE CRITERIA FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MORE WIDESPREAD GREEN-UP IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE ANY IMPACTS TO A FIRE GROWING PATTERN. AS A RESULT WILL NOT BE HOISTING ANY RED FLAGS TODAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO SATURDAY AND BRING COLDER TEMPS...HIGHER RH...AND A FEW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. A 994MB SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER SE COLORADO WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG JET MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORIES ARE TO BE EXPECTED WITH THESE WINDS. MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH GREEN-UP MITIGATING ANY FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL CONTINUE COOL TEMPS AND WETTING SHOWER CHANCES OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM SUNDAY. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NM INTO MONDAY. VENT RATES WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLY LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OVERALL FIRE-SLOWING PATTERN APPEARS ON THE HORIZON FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS MOIST RETURN FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A VERY SLOWLY EVOLVING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. MAX RH VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ELEVATED MIN RH VALUES REGULATED BY DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. TEMPS LOOKS TO STAY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL BE A GOOD PATTERN FOR CONTINUED GREEN-UP AND SIGNIFICANT DELAY OF THE FIRE SEASON FOR AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 603 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015 NMZ501>540-091215- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 603 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR SATURDAY...VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS MAY REACH 50 MPH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 05
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
735 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
NMZ536-081400-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-
735 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY THROUGH
800 AM MDT...
AT 732 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINGO...OR ABOUT 34 MILES
SOUTH OF PORTALES...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LINGO...CAUSEY AND ROGERS.
&&
LAT...LON 3369 10305 3370 10328 3411 10321 3408 10303
3377 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1335Z 190DEG 29KT 3374 10316SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 754 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015 NMZ536-081430- ROOSEVELT COUNTY- 754 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY THROUGH 830 AM MDT... AT 748 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DORA...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF PORTALES...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. && LAT...LON 3417 10336 3410 10314 3390 10324 3393 10337 TIME...MOT...LOC 1354Z 193DEG 13KT 3400 10328 GUYER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Public pictures shared on facebook show the golf ball sized hail that fell near Dora. No reported damage due to the hail.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 565761.