Flash Flood and Flood in New Mexico, July 29 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  64  85 /  10  30  60  30
DULCE...........................  53  82  53  78 /  50  50  60  60
CUBA............................  54  75  51  73 /  80  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  57  84  55  81 /  40  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  77  52  77 /  60  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  57  81  55  79 /  50  40  60  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  55  79 /  40  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  80  57  84 /  40  60  40  30
CHAMA...........................  50  74  49  71 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  77  58  75 /  60  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  56  73  56  74 /  80  60  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  54  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  62  47  60 /  70  80  70  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  64  49  64 /  70  80  80  70
TAOS............................  53  77  52  75 /  50  40  40  50
MORA............................  54  71  53  71 /  70  70  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  83  58  81 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  58  76  59  76 /  70  50  60  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  79  58  79 /  70  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  62  83 /  80  60  60  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  83  64  83 /  70  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  86  63  88 /  70  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  89 /  70  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  63  87 /  70  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  58  79 /  90  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  90  70  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  78  55  81 /  80  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  74  58  76 /  70  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  78  58  81 /  60  60  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  61  86 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  74  57  76 /  60  40  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  57  80  56  78 /  50  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  78  57  79 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  74  55  76 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  20
ROY.............................  60  75  62  79 /  80  40  70  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  84  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  85  67  87 /  60  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  86  68  90 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  67  88  68  88 /  50  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  85  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  94 /  50  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
ELK.............................  60  79  59  80 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

44

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