A cold front combined with an approaching 140+ knot jet from the north and an upper trough to produce weak convection across Sierra County. The air at the surface was drying out quickly behind the cold front which helped to produce outflow winds of 67 mph at the Truth or Consequences Airport.
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The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
A cold front combined with an approaching 140+ knot jet from the north and an upper trough to produce weak convection across Sierra County. The air at the surface was drying out quickly behind the cold front which helped to produce outflow winds of 67 mph at the Truth or Consequences Airport.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 3:15 PM MST, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 315 PM MST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS TONIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLY WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE EARLIER TODAY IS NOW RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST AS WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD GET STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD THUS MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL LOWER TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY MAX WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND PROVIDE BARELY SUFFICIENT DYNAMIC FORCING TO INDUCE MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIP AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. COLD AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS BENEATH DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EVEN THE LOWLANDS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY BUT SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 3 INCHES EXPECTED EVEN OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY MID MORNING TUESDAY WITH SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT BRINGING COOLER DRY WEATHER. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS FLAT RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT OF WARMER DRY AIR MASS INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN VICINITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BACKING FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THUS EXPECT MORE CLOUDS AND EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING STRONGER FRONT INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS KEEPING IT EAST OF THE CWA WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES IT WESTWARD. AT THIS TIME ENSEMBLE BLEND INDICATES MILDER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION...VALID 17/12Z-18/12Z... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPR LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS TO THE SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z WITH MOST WX E OF AN ELP-ALM LINE. SKY CONDS THRU PD: SCT050-080 SCT140-180 SCT-BKN200-250: ISOLD SHRA TSRA LOW ELV TIL 03Z LOW ELV AND ISOLD SHRA LOW ELV SHSN HIR ELV 06Z-12Z BKN040 BKN100. SFC WINDS 00Z-12Z WSW 15G25KTS VEERING TO NW12KTS AFT 12Z. OCNL MDT TURBC OVR/NR MTNS/E SLOPES. && .FIRE WEATHER... A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUR AREA TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND BRUSH OUR REGION JUST TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE BORDER AREAS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COOLER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MIN RH FIELD WILL RUN FROM 30% TO 40% OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY DROPPING ABOUT 5% TO 10% ON TUESDAY, && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 43 61 35 70 41 / 10 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA 35 57 32 69 39 / 30 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 37 60 32 68 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 33 56 30 65 36 / 10 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 20 38 24 49 30 / 30 10 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 59 32 68 37 / 10 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 33 58 31 67 36 / 20 0 0 0 0 DEMING 37 63 31 70 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 35 62 30 69 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 WEST EL PASO METRO 44 61 37 70 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 DELL CITY 31 56 28 69 34 / 30 0 0 0 0 FORT HANCOCK 42 61 34 72 41 / 20 0 0 0 0 LOMA LINDA 36 54 35 64 41 / 10 0 0 0 0 FABENS 41 60 33 71 38 / 20 0 0 0 0 SANTA TERESA 40 61 32 69 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 WHITE SANDS HQ 37 58 33 68 40 / 10 0 0 0 0 JORNADA RANGE 34 59 25 68 33 / 10 0 0 0 0 HATCH 34 63 29 71 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 43 63 35 70 39 / 20 0 0 0 0 OROGRANDE 37 57 33 67 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 MAYHILL 25 46 29 59 34 / 40 10 0 0 0 MESCALERO 23 45 26 56 32 / 30 10 0 0 0 TIMBERON 27 46 29 57 35 / 30 10 0 0 0 WINSTON 31 55 29 64 35 / 20 0 0 0 0 HILLSBORO 35 59 33 68 39 / 10 0 0 0 0 SPACEPORT 32 60 29 69 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 LAKE ROBERTS 29 56 28 65 33 / 20 0 0 0 0 HURLEY 33 58 30 67 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 CLIFF 30 62 26 71 31 / 10 0 0 0 0 MULE CREEK 25 60 22 67 28 / 10 0 0 0 0 FAYWOOD 36 58 33 67 38 / 10 0 0 0 0 ANIMAS 39 65 33 71 37 / 20 0 0 0 0 HACHITA 38 65 31 72 35 / 20 0 0 0 0 ANTELOPE WELLS 39 66 32 71 37 / 20 0 0 0 0 CLOVERDALE 38 63 34 70 37 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 517 AM MST MON FEB 16 2015 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-171230- UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE- SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY- SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL- UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES- NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY- CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN- WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET- SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA- WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY- NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN- SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES- RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY- 517 AM MST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NM AND TX. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH WILL GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG THE BORDER REGION AND GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AN SECOND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE WHICH ALONG WITH COLD AIR FROM A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET ELEVATION BY TUESDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK PUSHED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LUNDEEN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
KTCS ASOS reported a peak wind of 67 mph from a downdraft associated with weak convective showers in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 560445.