A weak shortwave within northwest flow aloft traversed northern New Mexico during the afternoon of the 17th, helping to initiate areas of strong to severe storms. Storm type was initially more multi-cellular with embedded supercells over the northern mountains and northeast highlands before slowly transitioning to more of a squall line-like feature as it entered the east central plains during…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A weak shortwave within northwest flow aloft traversed northern New Mexico during the afternoon of the 17th, helping to initiate areas of strong to severe storms. Storm type was initially more multi-cellular with embedded supercells over the northern mountains and northeast highlands before slowly transitioning to more of a squall line-like feature as it entered the east central plains during the evening. The embedded supercell thunderstorms managed to produce multiple severe hail reports throughout the day, ranging from nickel to baseball size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 11:08 AM MST, 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1208 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPING AS OF THIS WRITING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST AND SE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCT DEVELOPMENT MAINLY E AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANTS TO THE NW CORNER OF CATRON COUNTY. SOME STORMS LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL NM LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE REMAINDER OF N CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THESE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBY...ALONG WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 KTS. DRIER ACROSS ROUGHLY NW THIRD OF NM WITH ONLY ISOLATED -TSRA COVERAGE. TSRA INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO DIMINISH SOME LATE TONIGHT. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION...322 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015... .SYNOPSIS... DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE DRY AIR WILL ALL BUT ELIMINATE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DRY AIR WILL SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...LIMITING STORM CHANCES MAINLY TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY...COOLING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE READINGS FOR MID AUGUST. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO NW AND FAR W-CENTRAL NM TODAY. FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NE THIRD WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE/SPEED MAX TO PRODUCE SCT- NUMEROUS ACTIVITY. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH GOOD VEERING OF THE WIND WITH HEIGHT. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERTAKES THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM TUESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY BE THE ONLY SPOT WHERE A BUILDING CUMULUS JUST MIGHT SURVIVE THE VERTICAL JOURNEY JUST LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWER OR TWO. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLIPPER TROUGH SLIDING SEWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SEND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE...SENDING IT THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NAM KEEPS THE FRONT BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...SENDING IT WWD WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH EITHER SOLUTION WILL BE SIMILAR...WITH COOLER TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF UPSLOPE STRATUS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REBOUND RAPIDLY THURSDAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT WIN OUT AND FORCE THE COOLER AIRMASS EWD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOUR CORNERS HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EWD THROUGH SRN AZ AND SRN NM. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP AROUND UPPER HIGH AND INTO NM FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF THEN BOTH BRING DOWN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO SET THE STAGE FOR SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER... TRANSITION TO A MUCH DRIER...BREEZIER/WINDIER PATTERN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MID-AUGUST CARVES OUT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATER TODAY AND SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THAT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FROM NW TO SE. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE OVER NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHARPER INCREASES EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AREAS...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN CURRENT FUEL STATUS AND LOW/MODERATE FIRE DANGER...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT BE ISSUED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND IN MIN RH WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM THE RIO GRANDE W-NW TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST AND IMMEDIATE FOUR CORNERS REGION COULD SEE DEW POINTS CRATER TO THE UPPER TEENS DURING PEAK MIXING. ACROSS THE EAST...SURFACE DRYING WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED NEAR THE NM/TX LINE BUT RH/S STILL NOTICEABLY LOWER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND IN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF AN ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT AS WELL AS THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT NORTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY...WITH THE MAIN SOUTHWARD SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOMEWHAT FOR AREAS ALONG RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOCALLY GUSTY GAP WINDS DEVELOP. THINKING THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NC/NE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE STORM COVERAGE QUICKLY WANES. LARGELY THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WED-THU. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE FOR LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND THE AIR MASS GRADUALLY RECOVERS. EXCELLENT VENTILATION THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH POCKETS OF FAIR TO LOCALLY POOR VENT RATES LINGERING TODAY IN THE HIGH NORTHERN VALLEYS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES. KJ && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 521 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 NMZ501>540-181130- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA- MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 521 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO TEXAS LINE. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OTHERWISE...ANY SLOW- MOVING STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A MUCH DRIER AND WINDIER PATTERN WILL DEVELOPS TUESDAY WITH LARGELY THUNDERSTORM FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 33
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015
NMZ510-516-171845-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
1210 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TAOS COUNTY UNTIL
1245 PM MDT...
AT 1210 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TRES PIEDRAS...OR 22 MILES WEST OF QUESTA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARROYO HONDO...TRES PIEDRAS AND LAS TABLAS.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 285 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 372 AND 389.
OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
CEBOLLA MESA CAMPGROUND...HIGH BRIDGE OVERLOOK...JOHN DUNN BRIDGE
RIVER ACCESS...AND RIO GRANDE GORGE VISITOR CENTER.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR YOUR PREFERRED
MEDIA OUTLETS AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3664 10567 3662 10566 3660 10566 3660 10564
3657 10566 3655 10566 3656 10563 3655 10562
3637 10572 3661 10617 3674 10607
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 295DEG 23KT 3663 10598
34The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 178 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:35 UTC.
8 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Golf ball size hail fell along highway 285 south of Tres Piedras.
Quarter size hail north of Salman Raspberry Ranch.
Pea to quarter size hail with 50 mph estimated wind gusts.
Pea to quarter size hail along U.S. Highway 64 between Des Moines and Grenville. Plow trucks called out to move hail off roadway.
Public reports indicate baseball size hail fell between Pastura and Vaughn along U.S. Highway 54. EM had back windshield blown out by the hail that was falling from the same storm.
Quarter to half dollar size hail lasted about 5 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 588501, 588502, 588503, 588505, 588506, 588507, 588510, 588508.