Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, August 17 to 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 0314 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring this afternoon
across the area. WV imagery shows slightly better mid level
moisture moving in from the west. These storms should remain
sub severe as wind fields remain weak. A weak shortwave trough
moving across northern Kansas and Nebraska is likely aiding in
this activity and will likely continue through the evening hours
before dying off with loss of instability. Overnight conditions
should remain relatively quiet with warmer overnight lows than
previous nights as dewpoints creep up toward 70.

Changes in the weather begin Tuesday as a strong upper level
system over South Dakota and Nebraska takes shape. Several pieces
of energy look to rotate around this feature making for a
difficult forecast. One lobe of energy moves out of Kansas into
the area during the afternoon hours. This looks to potentially
trigger some severe convection as instability looks sufficient and
0-6km wind shear values increase to 30 to 40 kts. At this time the
most favorable area for severe thunderstorms appears to be for
areas along and northwest of I44 closer to the better upper level
support. There is some uncertainty in the development of
convection tomorrow afternoon/evening as mesoscale features will
come into play. Temperatures will remain mild in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 0314 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

Additional convection is possible overnight Tuesday night as a
cold front enters the region from the northwest. This activity
would likely come in after midnight Wednesday morning. Wind fields
will be more favorable however instability will be waning. Cold
frontal passage looks to occur around sunrise Wednesday. Wednesday
looks to be a cool and wet day as post frontal showers are likely
keeping temperatures well below normal. Showers look to end from
west to east Wednesday afternoon.

Upper level flow becomes westerly Thursday and Friday behind the
current system. Thursday looks dry and very comfortable. Models
are not consistent in the handling of the Friday-Sunday
timeframe. GFS wants to keep Friday wet with the approach of a
shortwave and the return of the front from the south...while the
Euro keeps all precip south of the area until Saturday. Safe to
say an low confidence forecast on precipitation from Friday
onward. Temperatures do look seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

Mostly VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF period.
Wind directions will shift to a more SW direction then once
again take on a more SSE component overnight. Generally, winds
should stay at or below 10kt. There is a shot at some widely
scattered showers and perhaps a TS this evening near the SGF and
BBG terminals. Might also see a shower or two near JLN toward the
end of the period. Used VCs to highlight this potential.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Frye

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
122 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-181830-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
122 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
  ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY...ESPECIALLY
  OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
  AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
  CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS
  CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE
  FRONT.

  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO
  THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO APPROACH THE MID 90S DURING
  THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)