There was an upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A surface boundary was present across the Permian Basin.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
There was an upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners region. A surface boundary was present across the Permian Basin. The atmosphere was moist and unstable which allowed for storms with flash flooding to develop.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 7:07 PM MST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 907 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 .UPDATE... Trimming rain chances across most of area. Continuing chance of rain mainly southeast New Mexico into the northern Permian Basin. && .DISCUSSION... With loss of daytime heating, most shower and thunderstorm activity across southwest Texas is dissipating. Modest low level jet beginning to kick in. Short term models suggest that some elevated instability will also persist over southeast New Mexico and northern Permian basin for the next few hours. Low level jet and elevated instability should allow convection to continue and possibly expand from southeast New Mexico into the northern Permian basin through late evening. With very little shear, area of storms should move slowly eastward. Slow movement suggests locally heavy rain is possible, especially in parts of southern Lea County where some training appears to be starting along outflowboundary from earlier convection. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below. AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night. More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package. 12 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains. KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high resolution models are depicting convection forming along the boundary this aftn/evening. Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday... especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves move across. The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined mainly to the mountains by Tuesday. Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains. The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Strobin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 72 98 74 99 / 10 20 20 20 CARLSBAD NM 71 97 73 98 / 20 10 20 20 DRYDEN TX 75 100 74 100 / 10 10 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 73 99 74 101 / 10 20 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 68 91 69 90 / 10 20 20 20 HOBBS NM 70 96 72 96 / 30 10 20 20 MARFA TX 61 91 62 91 / 10 20 20 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 99 74 100 / 10 20 10 10 ODESSA TX 73 99 75 100 / 10 20 10 10 WINK TX 75 103 76 104 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 99/05
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 144 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-021845- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 144 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015 /1244 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:53 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain moved across Lea County and produced flash flooding in Hobbs. Local law enforcement reported that Highway 18 was flooded and smaller streets throughout Hobbs were flooded. At least two cars were reported to be stranded. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 592039.