NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 21, 3:57 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 21, 3:57 PM EST, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
457 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND
WITH A TENDENCY FOR COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING TO OUR NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE-DAY TO
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT, SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE WITH A DESTABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE AND LAPS DATA SHOWING CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WE HAVE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHWEST
ZONES THROUGH LATE-DAY, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, AND SPC
CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING INTO LATE EVENING, ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH, AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
WEAK COLD FRONT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE CARRIED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL OFF SOME THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAKING FOR SOMEWHAT BETTER FEELING
CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE MID 70S INTO THE DELMARVA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A PLEASANT MONDAY IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AT THE START
OF THE DAY AND SOME WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
WINDS WILL YIELD A WARM DAY, AND A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE TAKES
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG
THE COAST, WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**HOT TUESDAY, POSSIBLY NEAR RECORD**
500 MB: WARM HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA. TROUGHING MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND THEN PROBABLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY BELOW 4 DEGREES NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND. DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MAY BE 8
DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL AT TIMES!
FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/21 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/21 MEX MOS WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/21 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. OUR LONG TERM 12Z/21 ECMWF AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE
ARRIVED TOO LATE FOR DIRECT BLENDING INTO THIS FORECAST.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARRIVE LATE. SMALL CHANCE
AND STILL NOT YET MENTIONED IN THE PRODUCTS, OF A SHOWER GRAZING
THE POCONOS AT DAWN TUESDAY. PWAT 1 INCH DURING MONDAY EVENING
BUILDING TO 1.6 INCHES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
SCENARIO: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VERY HOT AND HUMID! SW WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE DAY. SHOULD SEE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
FRONT. SREF PWAT 1.8 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MLCAPE
OVER 2400J DURING THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK QUITE STRONG WITH 50
KT AT 500MB NEAR AND N I-78 AND TT LOWER 50S WITH SWI -4.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE EML DURING THE MORNING- MIDDAY, BREAKING
FREE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY AND APPEARING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE 12Z-18Z TUESDAY. THE EML OFFERS ADDITIONAL
WIND STRENGTH HAIL SIZE POTENTIAL IF CONVECTION ERUPTS. WE'RE ALSO
NOTING HIGH FORECAST SHERB VALUES FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY (SPOTTY
VALUES OVER 1). POPS LOOKED A LITTLE LOW BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT
THERE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION.
CONFIDENCE ON HEAT INCLUDING 95-96F AT PHL IS ABOVE AVG.
CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION: A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MODELED
PARAMETERS FOR SVR, IMPRESSIVE.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORDS
TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS END EARLY.
WEDNESDAY...DRY AND NICE. LIGHT NW WIND DURING THE DAY. (WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE) CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED,
POSSIBLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM DOWN ON THE DELMARVA. POPS RAISED TO
LIKELY LATE THU WESTER PORTION OF THE FA AND EVERYWHERE THU NIGHT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...PROBABLY DRY THOUGH SOME
MODEL DISCREPANCY AND SO THERE EXISTS A CHANCE OF A SHOWER. A
MARINE INFLUENCED COOL NE FETCH. MAX TEMPS MAY BE MORE THAN 5F
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT MORE THAN 5 DAYS AWAY,
JUST DIDNT WANT TO OVERPLAY THE CHILLY DAYTIMES. CONFIDENCE;
AVERAGE OR BELOW.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE LARGE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON ONE OF THESE TWO
DAYS AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLY INCREASE TOWARD MONTHLY
RECORDS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING DETAILS BELOW AVERAGE BUT ABOVE
AVERAGE THAT IT WILL RAIN ON ONE OF THESE TWO DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE-DAY AND TONIGHT.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS, BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING TO
UNDER 10 KNOTS. ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
LATE-DAY TO THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS FOR A TIME,
BUT AREAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
REGION, AND WE ONLY CARRY A VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS AT OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SITES, WHERE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, INCLUDING
KRDG/KABE/KTTN.
MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 10 TO 12 KNOT RANGE, WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. VFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT LOWERING TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY TSTORMS (SVR?) MID AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. GRADIENT SW WIND GUSTS 25 KT WITH POSSIBLE 33 KT
LATE DAY AND EVENING THEN WIND SHIFT NW AT NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KT DIMINISHING LATE AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY...VFR DAYTIME WITH POSSIBLE VFR CIGS ARRIVING LATE AT
NIGHT. NW GUSTS UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT N AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE
THURSDAY...VFR CIGS DAYTIME WITH CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
(ISOLATED TSTMS ON THE DELMARVA). A MUCH LARGER CHANCE OF DEGRADING
CONDITIONS TO IFR IN STRATUS-FOG AT NIGHT ALONG WITH SHOWERS.
LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR A BIT ABOVE.
FRIDAY...CIGS. UNCERTAINTY BUT COULD BE A DAY OF MVFR CIGS. NE WIND
MAY GUST 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WE CONTINUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
8PM THIS EVENING, AS NEAR-SHORE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME LATE-DAY 25
KNOT WIND GUSTS OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST. IN
ADDITION BUOY DATA FROM 44009 AND 44091 SHOW SEAS STILL HOVERING
BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET.
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, PERHAPS GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY. SEAS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3
FEET FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE
BAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT... NO HEADLINE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
TUESDAY...SCA SW WIND GUSTS PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT DURING
THE EARLY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NNJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.
FRIDAY...SCA APPEARS LIKELY FOR NE FETCH AND ATLC SEAS BUILDING TO
5 TO 7 FT.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
11 AM ASSESSMENT INCLUDING INFORMATION GATHERED FROM OUR 1015 AM
CONFERENCE CALL WITH 4 BEACH PATROLS.
THE RIP CURRENT FORMATION RISK WAS PROBABLY HIGHEST THIS MORNING.
NOW THAT WINDS ARE WLY, WE'RE NO LONGER BUILDING THE WATER LEVEL
IN THE SURF ZONE. ON THE OTHER HAND AS THE TIDE MOVES INTO THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TIDE CYCLE AFTER 2 PM...WHATEVER RISK FOR THE
FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS, IT TENDS TO ELEVATE
DUE TO SAND BAR EXPOSURE AND RESIDUAL WATER BUILD UP. LONG PERIOD
SWELLS ARE AT A MINIMUM TODAY SO THE CONTRIBUTION OF WATER
BUILDUP BEHIND THE BARS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
GRADUALLY LOWERING SHORT PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL.
WE HAD A COUPLE OF REPORTS FROM NORTH WILDWOOD AND ISLAND BEACH
STATE PARK ABOUT CONCERN THAT THE RIP CURRENT FORMATION LATE THIS
MORNING WAS BORDERING HIGH RISK.
DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND IMPACT, WE'VE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST.
MEDIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS NEAR 90F WEATHER ARE STILL
ENCOURAGED TO ADVISE CAUTION FOR SWIMMERS GOING INTO THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND PLEASE SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS.
THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS.
WHEN IT GETS HOT TUESDAY... THE BEACHES SHOULD LOAD UP WITH
SWIMMER.
&&
.CLIMATE...
VULNERABLE TO THE MAX TEMP WITHIN 2F OF EQUALING THE RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY JUNE 23
KACY 98-1988
KILG 100-1894
KPHL 97-1888
KABE 95-1965
KTTN 97-1894
KRDG 96-1908
KMPO 90-1908
KGED 100-1988
LANCE POSTED ON FB AND TWEETED LINKS DURING MID AFTERNOON WITH
MORE INFORMATION THAN POSTED HERE.
RAINFALL: THE PAST WEEK FROM THE 14TH THROUGH 20TH "NOT INCLUDING
TODAYS SO FAR".
KMPO 2.07 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KRDG 1.69 7 CONSEC DAYS OF SOME RAIN
KABE 1.91 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KTTN 0.84 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KPHL 1.49 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KILG 2.70 7 CONSEC DAYS OF RAIN
KACY 1.18 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
KGED 1.06 6 OF 7 DAYS IT RAINED
WHEN WE ADD TODAYS RAINFALL THROUGH 9 AM... IT WILL HAVE RAINED 8
CONSEC DAYS AT KMPO/KRDG/KPHL AND KILG AND 7 OF 8 ELSEWHERE.
KILG: THE 9.18 INCHES FOR THE MONTH AS OF 845 AM THIS MORNING IS
STILL 4TH WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD.
2013 13.66
2003 9.90
2006 9.40
2015 9.18
POR FOR THIS STATION IN JUNE IS BACK TO 1896. INTERESTINGLY, IN
THE NEARLY 120 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD, THE TOP 4 MONTHLY JUNE
RAINFALL TOTALS ALL OCCURRED IN THE LAST 13 YEARS.
TEMPS THROUGH THE 20TH ARE AVERAGING 1.3 TO 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RTPPHI WAS MISSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO THE
FAA MAINTENANCE PERIOD FROM 315Z-815Z EARLIER TODAY. WE HOPE THIS
PROBLEM IS RESOLVED FOR THE 0015Z/22 VERSION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...DRAG 456
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...456
EQUIPMENT...