Rip Current in New Jersey, July 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY, THEN DISSIPATES AS IT
REACHES OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
BUILD BACK OVER OUR REGION LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY, THEN
SLOWLY EASE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD LATER TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DISSIPATE
ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL ENSURE ANOTHER FAIR
WEATHER DAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A COMFORTABLE AIR MASS AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER
80S SOUTH AND LOW/MID 80S NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...FAVORING W/NW
THIS MORNING AND S/SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE WILL AFFECT
ERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SE/E WINDS DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE CONDITIONS MORE
MUGGY FOR TONIGHT AND BEYOND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
LATE AND A SLGT CHC/CHC FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WAS KEPT IN
THE GRIDS FOR LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION CONTINUES TO OUTSHINE THE WRF-NMMB IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WHERE THE LATTER REMAINS TOO DEEP AND
SLOW WITH THE TROF. WE CAN SEE ITS SLOWNESS RIGHT OFF THE BAT AS
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WAS STILL SUPPOSE
TO BE WEST OF OMAHA. THIS SLOW PREMISE BLEEDS THROUGHOUT ITS MODEL
RUN AND ITS TIMING WAS NOT USED IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER THE
WRF-NMMB WAS BETTER INITIALIZED AT 850MB (GFS WARM BIAS) AND BOTH
MODELS OUTSIDE OF SOME +1C ERRORS WERE PRETTY EVEN AT 925MB.
THE DP/DT SHOWS A STRONGER HEAT RIDGE IN TEXAS (A BUNCH OF -3C AT
500MB), A SHARPER TROF IN THE EAST, BUT AN OVERALL MORE ZONAL TROF
OUT WEST. THE EVENTUAL DIGGING CLOSED LOW JUST OFF OF THE CANADIAN
COAST LOOKED INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL. THE GEFS MEAN AND OP GFS
ARE CLOSE IN TIMING, THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE OP WRF-NMMB
WHICH IS WAY SLOWER THAN THE SREF.

THE LONG TERM IS A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND A MODELING CONSENSUS THAT
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE WRF-NMMB (TOO SLOW) AND THE CAN GGEM (ITS DANNY
FORMATION SOLUTION AFFECTS OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER). THE BIGGEST IMPACT
IN OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE HEAT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LACK
OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR LIMITS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THURSDAY'S/FRIDAY'S STORMS WHILE HAVE
POTENTIAL ARE TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO PEG CONFIDENTLY.

APPROACHING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY SHOULD TRIGGER SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OF SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SUNDAY
HAS THE STRONGEST SUPPORT FOR THUNDER OF THE THREE. ITS THE DAY WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPS AT 500MB, THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL QVEC
CONVERGENCE, A 250MB JET NEARBY AND IF ONE WERE TO HAVE REALLY LOW
STANDARDS, A LLJ IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. MIXED LAYER CAPES
NORTHWEST ARE CLOSE TO 1000J AND THERE IS MODERATE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE DCAPE GETS CLOSE TO NEG 1000J ALSO. SHEAR THOUGH IS
LACKING AND IS STRONGEST WHERE STORMS ARE LEAST LIKELY (SRN PART OF
OUR CWA) TO OCCUR. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS FAIRLY HIGH UP,
CLOSER TO 500MB THAN 700MB. BUT IF THERE IS A DAY OR A PLACE
(NORTH) FOR STRONGER STORMS, OF THE BUNCH, THIS WOULD BE THE ONE.
OUR POPS ARE HIGHEST NORTHWEST.

SUNDAY ALSO MARKS THE END OF THE RUN OF PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR
OUR AREA AS DEW POINTS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 60S. WE MIGHT VERY
WELL ADD ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY TO THE SUMMER TAB. ABOUT 1420M
1000-850MB THICKNESS IS HOLDING AS THE 90 DEGREE MAX THRESHOLD IN
THE CONUS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL GET IF NOT JUST REACH IT
ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR. BECAUSE THIS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE
LATITUDINALLY WARMER NORTH, NOT MUCH OF A MAX TEMPS DIFFERENCE
(EXCEPT HIGHER TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATE COAST) ACROSS OUR CWA.

INSTABILITY WANES ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT DOES NOT TOTALLY DISAPPEAR.
WE GIVE CONVECTION A CHANCE TO MAKE A DEEPER PENETRATION INTO
OUR CWA BEFORE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WINS. POPS ARE SLOWLY LOWERED
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATING IN OUR MIDST ON MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE KEYED ON ITS FINAL DESTINATION. WE ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER BELIEVE THE WRF-NMMB IS TOO SLOW,
NOT SURE ABOUT THE ECMWF AS IT HAS A SLOW BIAS TOO. THE DIFFERENCE
IN MIXED LAYER CAPES BETWEEN THE WRF (2700J) AND THE GFS (ZERO)
AT AVP IS ASTOUNDING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER, DCAPE IS
REMOVED FROM HIGHER CHANCES, 500MB TEMPS ARE WARMER AND WHAT SO
CALLED JETS WE HAD ON SUNDAY ARE GONE. OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE
LAZIER CONVECTION WHERE THE THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE
HIGHER THAN STRONG WIND GUSTS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND
ANY DECENT SHORT WAVES ARE CONFINED TO DELMARVA, POPS WERE KEPT AT
CHANCE LEVELS. COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
(ANOTHER REASON CONVECTION DOES NOT LOOK AS INVITING) SUGGESTS A
SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN MAX TEMPS FROM SUNDAY. CHANCES ARE IF ONE DOES
NOT REACH 90 ON SUNDAY, WE WONT ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE SUN SETS, ANY PCPN CHANCES GO WITH IT ON MONDAY NIGHT.
POPS ARE LOWERED FASTER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN ON TUESDAY, WE
KEPT THE POPS IN DELMARVA AS THEY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF NOT
HAVING THE CAP IN PLACE IN TIME. TUESDAY BRINGS THERMAL FIELDS BACK
TO SUNDAY'S LEVELS (WITH EVEN MORE OF A NORTH/SOUTH THERMAL
JUXTAPOSITION) WITH A FEW 90S POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS NORTH AND
CENTRAL.

WE MAINTAINED A DRY CONTINUITY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS ALSO BY FAR THE LARGEST NORTH/SOUTH THERMAL DISPARITY AS
PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS ARE UP TO 5C WARMER IN SUSSEX NJ THAN IN
SUSSEX DE. MORE WIDESPREAD 90S ARE PREDICTED AND WE HAVE OUR
HIGHEST TEMPS IN OUR CWA IN NORTHERN NJ. BECAUSE OUR CWA REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHILE DEW POINTS WILL BE
HIGHER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN LATE THIS WEEK, THEY ARE NOT ON PAR
WITH WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID 90S.

THURSDAY COULD BE ANOTHER STORY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
WESTERLY AND THERE IS A MORE TYPICAL THERMAL DISTRIBUTION ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS, DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM WESTERN
CONVECTION ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO MAX TEMPS. WHILE THE GFS HAS
BEEN FAIRLY STEADFAST HOT, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO WAFFLE FROM DAY TO
NIGHT RUNS AS TO HOW HOT. FOR NOW, WE DO REMAIN ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE
FOR MAX TEMPS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ABOUT A 20 PCT CHANCE OF
URBAN AREAS REACHING HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA (100 HI). MOST FCST HEAT
INDEX MAXES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. NOT BANKING ON CONVECTION
TO SAVE THE THERMAL DAY. WHILE THE INITIAL WEST COAST TROF IS
FASTER, ITS THE CLOSED LOW ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED FOR TRENDS AS ITS THE DRIVER OF THE FRONT.

TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY (E.G. ECMWF JUST WENT FROM OFFSHORE DANNY TO AN
INLAND ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST LOW RUNNER) TO MAKE ANY BIG
CHANGES TO FRIDAY'S FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANOTHER VFR DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND IT WILL WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE SOME CI CLOUDS TODAY AND ALSO SOME FLAT CU THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME SWRLY
IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TODAY...SO
KACY WILL PROBABLY TURN E/SE BY LATE MORNING AND THEN SE WINDS
AT KMIV DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEL VALLEY TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME
SEA BREEZE AFFECTED WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SO A TEMPO GROUP
WAS PLACED IN THE TAFS. VFR WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...LIGHT S
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY REDUCED
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES. AS OF NOW, ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN DELMARVA
AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME. WIND DIRECTIONS
WILL BE MOSTLY W OR NW THIS MORNING...THEN SRLY TONIGHT. WINDS ALONG
THE SHORE WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.  SEAS MOSTLY 1-2 FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAKENING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS/ LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE A SOUTHERLY WIND MAY INCREASE
SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT, THE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

BUOY 44009...
WATER TEMPERATURE HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED BY BUOY 44009 SINCE JULY
22ND. WE'VE BEEN INFORMED BY THE NDBC THAT THE FAILED SENSOR WILL
UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL IT IS REPAIRED OR
REPLACED SOMETIME NEXT YEAR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O'HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O'HARA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-260800-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE HEAT INDICES FORECAST TO BE NEAR
100 DEGREES ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>014-016-020>027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-260800-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-260800-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
357 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.