Damaging Winds in Nevada, May 31, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
221 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY THEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EACH DAY THIS
WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DIRTY RIDGE OVER WESTERN US
IS PROGRESSIVE AND DRIFTING AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEPRESSES IT. FLOW
ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND REMAINS THAT
WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE DRY FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MORE WET THAN USUALLY. NOT COPIOUSLY SO...BUT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE WET PSEUDO MONSOON SEASON
WE JUST HAD IS COMING TO A CLOSE AS THINGS TURN MORE SUMMER LIKE.
LOW POPS AND QPF RESULT FROM THIS...NOT CALLING THEM DRY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT CERTAINLY NOT HEAVY RAINERS.

INCOMING TROUGH HAS  SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AND THIS HAS BEEN SHOWING
UP FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT A
FEW COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE LOWER LAYERS REMAIN DRY
AND UPPER TROUGH ENHANCES LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS. SO...OUTFLOW
WINDS ON TOP OF ALREADY BREEZY SURFACE WINDS EQUALS STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLING TREND TUESDAY AS STRONGER LOBE PASSES AND TURNS FLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS AT 500 MB. EXPECTING A
NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE BATTLE BORN STATE AT THE
ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY. THE PW'S AT THIS TIME ARE A TAD BIT ANEMIC...BUT
BANK ON AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION AND VIRGA MONDAY EVENING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-80. AGAIN THE NAEFS PINGS INTO SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE V COMPONENT ANOMALIES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
JET...LOCATIONS THAT CAN MIX OUT MIGHT HAVE NPW CRITERIA WINDS
MATERIALIZE. A SECOND SYSTEM IS SPINNING UP FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY IN SYNC WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED
LOW OVER NORTHERN CA AT F108...BUT BY F132...THE GFS NOSE DIVES
ALONG THE EASTPAC AND THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO CONUS.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FROM
THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE...KEPT THE POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PACKAGE AS IS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS/LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BUT VERY ISOLATED AND MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. NOT CALLING THEM "DRY" BUT THEY ARE CERTAINLY DRIER
THAN RECENT HISTORY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS. HOT
MONDAY WITH WORST RH RECOVERY IN 455 AND 457. TUESDAY COOLER AND
BETTER RH RECOVERY AS A RESULT. BREEZY ALL ZONES IN SPOTS...NOT
WIDESPREAD. SUNNY SKIES WILL CREATE GREATER WIND SPEEDS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

98/97/97