Hail in Nebraska, September 17, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
312 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IS ANTICIPATED PCPN EVENT LATE THIS
AFTN THRU EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. PER THE RAP13...ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD POPPING BY MID AFTN JUST NW OF THE CWA WITHIN
AXIS OF STEEP 0- 3KM LAPSE RATE/INCREASING BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
CONVG JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA.

AT PRESENT...LATEST OBS REVEALING POSITION OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY OVER
THE WRN DAKOTAS. REGIONAL OBS ALSO SHOWING STRONG INFLUX OF LLVL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S STRETCHING ALL THE
WAY SWD INTO ERN OK.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW AND BECOME NEARLY
STAGNANT GENERALLY OVER THE SRN CWA.

HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WRN IA WILL RECEIVE BRUNT OF PCPN ACCUM
THRU TONIGHT WHERE MAXOMEGA WILL BE COINCIDENT TO HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION OF DEEP LYR ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE...PWS AROUND
1.75". MEANWHILE...INCREASING DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INDUCE ANOTHER
AREA OF PCPN TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AND WRN SD IN RESPONSE TO A
POTENT VORT MAX EXITING THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN
QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AREA OF PCPN WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND EWD
INTO THE CWA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PCPN ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EWD INTO IA/MO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF
HEADS TWD THE MID MS VLY REGION.

BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS THEN ON SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

INCREASING THKNS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED PDS WITH HIGHS GOING FROM MID 70S ON
SUNDAY TO AROUND 80 ON TUESDAY. ON WED AND THUR...JUST A BIT COOLER
WITH POSSIBLE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE
EAST OF TAF SITES AFTER 18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
416 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-172330-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
416 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THOUGH IS UNLIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.