Hail, Dawson
- When
- June 23, 11:40 PM CST
- Where
- Dawson County, Cozad
- Measured
- 0.88 in hail
- Reported by
- Storm Chaser
- Coordinates
- 40.870, -99.970
Hail in Nebraska, June 23, 2015
m. CDT on Wednesday the 24th, scattered thunderstorms roamed through the northern half of South Central Nebraska, affecting counties along and especially north of Interstate 80.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Between midnight-5 a.m. CDT on Wednesday the 24th, scattered thunderstorms roamed through the northern half of South Central Nebraska, affecting counties along and especially north of Interstate 80. While none of these storms breached severe thresholds, a few likely produced small hail, with the only ground-truth report consisting of nickel size stones in Cozad during one of the first storms of the night. As for timing, scattered elevated storms developed almost simultaneously in two separate areas between midnight-1 a.m. CDT, one over Dawson County and the other farther northeast over Valley/Greeley/Nance counties. Over the next few hours, this initial convection tracked east while new storms flared up in its wake. By 5 a.m. CDT, all local activity had departed eastward into eastern Nebraska.
This was a fairly classic round of nocturnal convection, as the nose of a rather strong 40-45 knot low level jet took aim on the local area, surging over the top of a well-defined surface stationary front draped along the Nebraska-Kansas border, which separated easterly low level flow to its north from southerly breezes to its south. In the mid-upper levels, modest zonal flow was in place, as the Central Plains was sandwiched between a west-to-east oriented ridge centered over the OK area, and much stronger westerly flow over the Dakotas/Upper Midwest. Around the time of the Cozad hail report, the mesoscale environment featured up to around 2000 J/kg most-unstable CAPE and 30-35 knots of deep-layer wind shear. Although this environment might have otherwise supported a more robust threat of large hail, warm air aloft as noted by 700 millibar temperatures of at least 12-14C likely enhanced convective inhibition (CIN) even for elevated parcels.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 23, 5:09 PM CST, 6 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 5:09 PM CST, 6 hours 31 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY UNFOLDED RIGHT AWAY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ZONES ALONG A BOUNDARY. THE STORMS PRODUCED SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LARGE HAIL OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THAYER COUNTY. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON HOW CONVECTION MAY UNFOLD WITH A COUPLE OF DIFFERING SCENARIOS POSSIBLE. THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA AND ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER DARK NORTH OF THE FRONT AS THE LLVL JET STRENGTHENS. IF THIS OCCURS...TSTMS FAVOR LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ANOTHER SCENARIO AS SPC WRF SUGGESTS IS THAT CONVECTION MAY INITIATE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE VCNTY OF SFC LOW WHERE HEATING/SUNSHINE WAS PREVALENT TODAY. SO FAR THIS AFTN...NOT SEEING ANY DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE AND CAP MAY HOLD. GIVEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS HAVE SOME CHC FOR STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE LOWEST IN THE SOUTH AND HIGHER CHCS IN THE NORTH. IF STORMS GO...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE NAM LINGERS STORMS LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THAN OTHER MODELS AND HAVE CARRIED LOW POPS FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS DRY OUT WEDNESDAY AFTN AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE MIXING DURING THE DAY AND A PERIOD OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS RATHER QUIET WEATHER-WISE. WE WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM IN A ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. BY THURSDAY NIGHT A RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BASICALLY PARK ITSELF THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL CAUSE US TO BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT FOR THE REMINDER OF THE MONTH. BEFORE WE GO INTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...WE WILL HAVE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT WE COULD HAVE SHOWERS FORMING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS WE GET TRAPPED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR A WEAK PERTURBATION TO EJECT OUT OF THIS FLOW AND GIVE US AN OFF CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE CURRENTLY DRY PERIODS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMAL HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WHILE LOWS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CEILING...ABOVE 3000FT AGL...WILL LIKELY BE NOTED AT BOTH TAF SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD...BUT DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 08KTS TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME ANY SUCH WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KEAR AND KGRI. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT EITHER TAF SITE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...FAY LONG TERM...GUERRERO AVIATION...BRYANT
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 2:21 PM CST, 9 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 321 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 241200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 321 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER DARK TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS FAVORING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE STRETCH BETWEEN THE GOTHENBURG AND CLARKS AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE FROM KEARNEY TO HEBRON NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BETWEEN THE GOTHENBURG AND CLARKS AREAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jun 23, 9:58 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1058 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1005 AM HAIL 3 NNE BYRON 40.05N 97.75W
06/23/2015 E1.75 INCH THAYER NE PUBLIC
REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME AND LOCATION CORRECTED FROM
ORIGINAL REPORT OF OCCURRING IN DESHLER.
&&
PFANNKUCHThe radar
The North Platte radar (KLNX), 131 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:40 UTC.
Event by event
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
What these are
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Alabama, June 23, 2015
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in Iowa, June 23 to 25, 2015
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Maryland, June 23, 2015
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Pennsylvania, June 23, 2015
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in New Jersey, June 23, 2015
- Heat in New Jersey, June 23, 2015
- Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Pennsylvania, June 23, 2015
- Flood in Texas, June 23, 2015
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 23, 2015
- Flash Flooding and Flood in Pennsylvania, June 23, 2015
- Hail and Heavy Rain in Nebraska, June 23, 2015
- Damaging Winds in New York, June 23, 2015
More
Every storm in Nebraska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2015
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 588756.