Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 20, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1205 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS EASTERN S DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S.
AS THE SUN SHINES ON THE EAST AND WEST SIDES OF THE STRATUS...TEMPS
INTO THE 80S WITH PORTIONS OF SW NEB NEAR 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A STRONG CAP OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY AREA EXPECTING A SLIGHT CHANCE IS NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER. MODELS ARE TRACKING A MCS ACROSS S DAKOTA...AND A FEW NEAR
TERM MODELS BRING ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. CONFIDENCE IS
MARGINAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP/REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BORDER SO POPS
ARE LOW. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH AND LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE MODELS WHERE THERE IS ONGOING CONVECTION.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY AND
WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE BOUNDARY
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED EVEN
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SO STRATUS IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER WITH THE
STRONG WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE STRATUS BEFORE NOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 0-2KM THETA-E/WIND AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
PROJECTION SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST SANDHILLS. THAT IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

THE SURFACE FRONT THEN LIFTS INTO NEBRASKA FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THE MOST FAVORABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.

AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH...THERE ARE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KVTN AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS
NEAR OVC015 12Z-15Z. LESS OF A SIGNAL FOR POST FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT
AT KLBF AND HAVE NO LONGER INCLUDED A MENTION. THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE CURRENTLYL 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF KVTN...THEY
SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 50 MILES FROM THE TERMINAL...BUT THERE
COULD BE OUTFLOW WINDS PASSING THROUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
415 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
415 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 /315 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE
RIVERS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER UPSTREAM OF LAKE
MCCONAUGHY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ALTHOUGH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXIST THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK