A stalled frontal boundary acted as the triggering point for an initial line of showers and thunderstorms, with many of the storms becoming severe with strong moisture advection combining with diurnal heating and leading to an unstable air mass. The remnants of Tropical System Bill moved through the Mid-Atlantic overnight, continuing the severe threat late into the early part of the overnight…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A stalled frontal boundary acted as the triggering point for an initial line of showers and thunderstorms, with many of the storms becoming severe with strong moisture advection combining with diurnal heating and leading to an unstable air mass. The remnants of Tropical System Bill moved through the Mid-Atlantic overnight, continuing the severe threat late into the early part of the overnight hours. As winds backed with the tropical system, increasing directional and magnitude shear led to the development of tornadoes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 20, 2:18 PM EST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
318 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...MOVING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ON MONDAY. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED AT TIMES AS DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MULTIPLE HAZARD WEATHER SITUATION THROUGH THIS EVENING AS REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL APPROACH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PEAK FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES
LINGERING OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF RAINFALL.
BREAK IN CLOUDS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND INSTBY IS
INCREASING. SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND A SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE CURRENTLY A SEVERE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED...THE TORNADO THREAT IS NON-ZERO. TWO AREAS OF CONCERN -
ONE ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE MD/PA BORDER...AND THE SECOND
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLY BACK A BIT THIS EVENING. IN
COLLABORATION WITH SPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL TO CHANGE TO A TORNADO WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE AREA IF
NEEDED. ANY HAIL THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE EARLIER WITH GREATER
INSTBY...THEN WBZ HEIGHTS REALLY RISE AS CIRCULATION CENTER
APPROACHES.
SAID TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN RATES. THE
DEFORMATION AXIS WILL LIKELY SET UP NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WE WILL
BE ABLE TO REALIZE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE NOSE OF LLJ AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE AREA MAY BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS. SHOULD SEE A
DECREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES TO EAST.
FOR SUNDAY...HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE LOW MAY RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY
DAY. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SOME
STORMS MAY APPROACH NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THESE COULD BE STRONG...BUT THAT MAY BE
MORE OF AN EVENING ISSUE. MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN HOT TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A
COOL FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
BETTER POSSIBILITY IN THE WEST AND NORTHERN AREAS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST WILL NOSE EASTWARD BEHIND THE STALLING
COOL FRONT IN SOUTHERN VIRGINIA MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE
VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY.
THE STALLED FRONT WILL CREEP NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM IN PARTS OF THE
REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUE BEGINS WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AT MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS
AND GRADIENT IN BELT OF STRONGER W NORTHWESTERLIES BISECTING CWA.
WEST COAST RIDGE/EAST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...KEEPING CWA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS COMPACT WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TRACK ACROSS OUR REGION.
TUE LOOKS TO BE VERY HOT...WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. 850 MB
TEMPS AOA 20C...WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO SFC TEMPS AT LEAST IN
THE M/U 90S. STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING TDS IN U60S/L70S AND OTHERS
INDICATING L/M60S. FOR NOW...SETTLED WITH A BLEND...WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN M90S AND TDS U60S. REGARDLESS...HEAT INDICES GENERALLY AOA 100F.
WHILE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER DAY 4...OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS IN 80S...LOWS IN
M/U60S)...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TOWARD WEEKS END. DIURNAL TSTM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY EACH DAY IN WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS.
EXCEPTION TO DIURNAL STORMS WOULD BE TSTM COMPLEXES THAT FORM TO OUR
WEST AND MOVE OVER OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT IN NW FLOW.
INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND JUXTAPOSITION OF
INSTABILITY WITH WIND FIELD...THINGS THAT ARE TOO DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN THIS FAR OUT. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN OUR CLIMO PEAK SVR
SEASON...AND WIND FIELD REMAINS MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK...SO WILL
NEED TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SCATTERED...WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE WEST OF BLUE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER AVIATION IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
BRIEFER AND MORE UNCERTAIN. HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
IFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE. QUESTIONABLE
HOW LOW CIGS MAY DROP LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. ANY STORMS WILL
LIKELY STAY NW OF THE TERMINALS.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY NEAR MRB...MTN...AND BWI.
ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A STRAY SHOWER OR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CHO TERMINAL MAY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE-THU...EXCEPT IN ISO TSTMS WHERE SUB-VFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY OR SE WIND GUSTS WILL BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
BILL. ONLY HEADLINE CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND THE SCA ONE ZONE FARTHER UP
THE BAY AND ATTACHED ESTUARIES. A BIGGER CONCERN FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND SMW/S WILL BE LIKELY.
PRECIP ENDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY FALLING BELOW SCA VALUES.
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUE.
NO HAZARDS EXPECTED WED-THU...EXCEPT IN ISO TSTM ACTIVITY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LVLS RUNNING PRETTY CLOSE TO ASTRO NORMALS ATTM. NO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH LVLS WILL START TO INCREASE IN SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL. THESE WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP
TONIGHT. THE NEARING LOW AND THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO DRAW WATER INTO THE ESTUARY.
ONE SITE THAT HAS BEST CHANCE TO EXCEED MINOR CRITERIA ATTM IS
ANNAPOLIS... AND BELIEVE THAT WL BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW INCHES.
BALTIMORE SHOULD EXCEED CAUTION STAGE...AND NORTH BEACH SHOULD
COME CLOSE AS WELL. HOWEVER VIGILANCE SHOULD BE EMPLOYED
EVERYWHERE ON THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS
IS A FLUID FORECAST.
FORECAST GUIDANCE ON THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC SUGGESTS NO ISSUES
ANTICIPATED ATTM. AGAIN...WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR DCZ001.
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MDZ003-501-502.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ025>027-029-030-
503-504-507-508.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ039-040-051>054-501-502-505-506.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR VAZ028-031.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ055-501-502-505-
506.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ050>053-503-
504.
MARINE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR ANZ535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ531-532-538>541.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ533-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ534-537-543.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE/KLW
MARINE...ADS/MSE/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/ADSHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 513 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-211115- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 513 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 11 PM. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. THERE ARE ALSO THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE AREA EXCEPT SOUTHERN MARYLAND. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE FFALWX FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN ACTIVATED. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-211115- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE- GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-NORTHERN FAUQUIER- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND- WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE- CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 513 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 11 PM EDT. THERE ARE ALSO THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD MESSAGE FFALWX FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 157 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:50 UTC.
24 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees were reported down on roads across Scottsville.
Several large trees were reported down with one tree reported down on a house.
A tree was reported down near the 5000 block on Orange Rd.
A large tree was reported down at the intersection of Route 7 and Clayton Hall Rd.
A large tree limb was reported down on South Lakes Dr at Soapstone Dr.
A tree was reported down on Hwy 15 near the Chestnut Hill lane intersection.
A tree was reported down across Old Dominion Dr.
National Weather Service personnel completed a ground survey along with radar analysis and concluded a small tornado produced damage along a 2.1 mile path beginning near the intersection of Virginia State Route 28/Nokesville road/ and Linton Hall Road. The tornado then moved northeast along Route 28, ending it’s damage path at the baseball fields at the intersection of Godwin road and Route 28.
The tornado’s path width was approximately 100 yards. The bulk of the damage occurred at the Broad Run golf training center where about a half-dozen softwood trees between 12 and 18 inches in diameter were snapped approximately 4 feet above the ground. The damage at the baseball fields at the intersection of Route 28 and Godwin Road included a scoreboard secured by 4x4s being snapped, along with |baseball dugout roofs lifted and blown away. The damage was sporadic along the 2.1 mile path, but coincided with the tornadic signature as depicted on WSR-88D and FAA Terminal Doppler weather radar. No additional damage was noted northeast of Godwin road.
A tree was reported down on Sudley Rd at Catharpin Rd.
A tree was reported down at the intersection of Sudley Rd and Misty Acres Lane.
One large tree was snapped and one was uprooted.
A tree was reported down at the intersection of Sudley Rd and Pageland Lane.
A tree was reported down at the intersection of Route 20 and Waugh Blvd.
A tree was reported down near Lenah Rd.
A tree was reported down at the intersection of Hwy 15 and Braddock Rd.
A tree was reported down near the 8500 block of Spruce St.
A tree was reported down across Route 29 at the intersection of Lonnie Burke Rd.
A large branch was reported down in the intersection of Gideon Dr and Dale Blvd.
A tree was reported down on Old Dominion Dr near Spring Hill Dr.
A large tree was reported down at the intersection of Route 1 and Jason Lane.
Eight trees were reported down across the Partlow area.
Two large branches were snapped off Tall Oak.
Reported at Knyg.
A tree was reported down on Caledon Rd near Indiantown Rd.
Two trees were reported down on power lines.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Virginia, 2015Warnings in Virginia, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 584567, 584595, 584583, 584573, 584570, 584581, 584566, 584594, 584574, 584575, 584587, 584576, 584585, 584580, 584582, 584577, 584584, 584596, 584571, 584579, 584586, 584572, 584578, 584569, 584588.