Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 17, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

AT 20Z BROAD ZONAL FLOW WAS ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAIN JET STREAK WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. A LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH A STALLED
FRONT EVIDENT ON SFC OBS AND SATELLITE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...THEN NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. LATEST OBS INDICATE THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CREEP
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL SERVE A FOCAL POINT FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT A
RELATIVELY HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THE HRRR HAS ROUTINELY SHOWN SPORADIC CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WHERE IT CAN RESOLVE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK AT
THIS TIME SO AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AT BEST IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN FIRE. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WYOMING/MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN DROP SOUTHEAST AS AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS ALONG THE CONVERGENT NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LLJ.
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO RESIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR A FEW OF THE
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS TONIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATEST RAP13 AND NAM12 SHOW 800MB
COMPUTED LI/S OF -8C TO -10C...ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS EAST OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS LINGER
CONVECTION IN THE AREA THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW. LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME AREAL COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED FOCAL POINT FOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODELS SHOW THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS NORTH AND WEST OF CWA UNDERNEATH FASTER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSER TO A SFC LOW IN NORTHERN WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
PLENTIFUL WITH PWATS ABOVE 1.25 INCHES WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING
POCKETS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS LIMITED.

BY FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL NORTH INTO S DAKOTA WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CWA. RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE WILL
FAVOR STORMS IN THE DAKOTAS WHICH MAY CLIP NORTHERN NEB...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING. MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ANTICIPATED. ALSO WILL BE A MUGGY DAY AS
DEW POINTS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. CAP IS FAIRLY STRONG AND BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NEB/S DAKOTA BORDER.

BY SAT NIGHT THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER KS WHILE A SHORT
WAVE MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CAP AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND LIMITS PRECIP
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE ECMWF IS COOLER AND STORMS
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

AFTER A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
TO MID 90S. RIDGE RIDING WAVES LOOK TO KEEP MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ONTO
THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR TS ACTIVITY AT BOTH KLBF AND KVTN TO
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEGUN TO CONSISTENTLY SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-182045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
338 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015 /238 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO
NORTH PLATTE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

GET YOUR WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
820 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE BIG SPRINGS        41.02N 102.02W
06/16/2015                   KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT FROM TUESDAY, JUNE 16TH 2015 RECEIVED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. NUMEROUS EMPTY PIVOTS FLIPPED OVER 4 TO 5
            MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG SPRINGS. ESTIMATED WINDS IN THE
            VICINITY OF THESE PIVOTS OF 70 MPH.

&&

MOLDAN