Heavy Rain, Hamilton
- When
- June 10, 6:00 AM CST to June 11, 6:00 AM CST
- Where
- Hamilton County, 1.5 mi S of Hordville
- Reported by
- CoCoRaHS
- Coordinates
- 41.058, -97.900
A 24-hour rainfall total of 3.46...most of which fell on the evening of the 10th.
In what had already been a very active start to June across parts of South Central Nebraska, what transpired on the afternoon of Wednesday the 10th into the early morning of Thursday the 11th was the final, truly widespread severe weather/flooding event of the month before a noticeably quieter weather pattern settled in over the next few weeks. Focusing first on the severe weather aspect, the…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
In what had already been a very active start to June across parts of South Central Nebraska, what transpired on the afternoon of Wednesday the 10th into the early morning of Thursday the 11th was the final, truly widespread severe weather/flooding event of the month before a noticeably quieter weather pattern settled in over the next few weeks. Focusing first on the severe weather aspect, the afternoon and evening featured several reports of large hail and damaging winds within various counties. Storm mode was primarily multicell, some of which started out as semi-discrete before eventually merging into larger clusters and lines. Most hail reports were in the nickel to half dollar size range, with 1.25 diameter stones reported near Elwood and Lexington. However, one storm that tracked north of Lexington around 6 p.m. CDT was a prolific hail-producer, as a storm chaser reported a short stretch of Highway 21 completely hail-covered with most stones averaging golf ball size but one as large as 3 in diameter. As for damaging winds, there were primarily three noteworthy storms. First off, a cluster of severe storms shifted eastward into the Valley/Sherman counties area between 5:30-6:30 p.m. CDT. In Arcadia, the NWS cooperative observer estimated 70 MPH gusts, with 10-12 diameter tree limbs down. A bit later, a storm became severe near the Franklin/Kearney County line around 7 p.m. CDT and rapidly tracked northeast during the next few hours. Along the way, estimated 70 MPH winds overturned seven empty freight cars of a 72-car train near Kenesaw in extreme western Adams County. This storm weakened before reaching Grand Island, with only 50-60 MPH gusts reported on the south side of town around 8:30 p.m. CDT. While the train-toppling storm was in progress, a separate severe storm to its northeast passed through Merrick and northern Hamilton counties, causing tree and power line damage in Central City and Hordville around 8 p.m. CDT. By 9 p.m. CDT, storms had largely settled below severe-limits, with just one additional 60 MPH wind report along the Franklin/Webster County line. Through the remainder of the night, scattered to numerous showers and non-severe storms persisted over much of South Central Nebraska, with most counties finally rain-free by sunrise. As for rainfall amounts, the majority of the 24-county area totaled 1-2. However, there were a few smaller pockets of at least 2-3, most notably within York, northern Hamilton and southwestern Polk counties, where NeRAIN observers reported 3.46 near Hordville and 3.24 near Benedict. Although a few dry days leading up to this event had allowed the York County area to start drying out in the wake of flooding rains that fell primarily on the 4th-5th, this event resulted in renewed short-term flooding issues. Most notably this involved the West Fork Big Blue River near McCool Junction, which again came out of its banks during the day on the 11th, only a few days after historic flooding occurred. Fortunately, flooding was not as severe this time around, and the river largely fell back into its banks by the end of the day on Friday the 12th (please refer to the June 4th p.m.-June 5th a.m. episode narrative for much more detail regarding multiple days of flooding along the West Fork Big Blue River).
Most of the timing details of this severe weather event were already covered in the preceding paragraph, as all hail/strong wind reports occurred between 4:00-9:30 p.m. CDT. However, the first strong storms of the afternoon actually developed eastward into the Dawson/Gosper counties area as early as 2:30-4:00 p.m. CDT. Turning to the synoptic and mesoscale setup: the primary trigger aloft was a series of fairly subtle disturbances gradually overspreading the Central Plains, out ahead of a modest shortwave trough drifting southeast toward the region from the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a few different boundaries helped to focus convection, including a generally west-to-east oriented quasi-stationary front draped through central Nebraska and also a trough axis extending southwest from the local area to weak low pressure centered near the KS/CO border. With afternoon temperatures rising between 90-95 degrees, storms erupted in an environment featuring around 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and 30-40 knots of 0-6 kilometer deep layer wind shear. During the night, widespread weak convection persisted within the exit region of a 30-40 knot low level jet.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 5:21 AM CST, 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 621 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 BEEN ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT IS GRADUALLY SLIDING EAST WITH TIME. PUSHED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH SWRLY FLOW BUILDING IN BEHIND. AT THE SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. ITS NOT A QUICK MOVING FRONT...AS ITS MAIN PUSH /AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO/ CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY ON THE LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE SIDE. MILD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH 3 AM OBS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON WE GO. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THAT WRN CONUS LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY...EMERGING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN NEB THIS EVENING...AND NOT MAKING A LOT OF EASTWARD PROGRESS BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE PATTERN STARTS THE DAY OUT WEAK...MODELS AGREE WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY SETTLING IN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER ERN CO...WITH A EASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED WITH TIME. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS PRETTY GOOD...SHOWING IT LOCATED ROUGHLY IN THE I-80/HIGHWAY 6 REGION. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAIN IN THE 00-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER INTO THE REGION...WITH LIFT AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEFTY LLJ /50+KTS/...WITH THE BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET LOOKING TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S/90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...ITS SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA THERE IS SOME LEVEL OF CONCERN ABOUT A TORNADO THREAT /MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN LL SHEAR THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP/...BUT THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONSIDERED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA WHICH HAS SEEN EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE PAST WEEK...BUT AFTER COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS AND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...AM HOLDING OFF AND WILL LET THE DAY CREW GET A LOOK AT THE UPCOMING 12Z RUN OF MODEL DATA. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 BIGGEST ISSUES INCLUDE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE PERSISTENT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/NORTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN THE SOUTH. FLOW IN OUR VICINITY WILL BE ZONAL AND LOW-AMPLITUDE. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY COULD HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE TIME...MOST LIKELY LURKING IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...OR PERHAPS JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL PERIODS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. FOR THURSDAY...THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION IN THE MORNING FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS...MOST LIKELY IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST CWA. SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE THAT THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE LATE ENOUGH TO MAINLY CONTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CWA. WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS MOVING BY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...BUT MOSTLY GREATER CHANCE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...CLOSER TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL. ALSO...THE NIGHTLY OCCURRENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET NEARBY COULD INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE CONFIDENT WITH SEVERE CHANCES BEYOND THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL EDGE UPWARD WITH TIME AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SLOWLY GAINS STRENGTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW...AS MODELS VARY ANYWHERE FROM MID AFTERNOON TO AFTER 00Z...BUT AGREEMENT IS BETTER WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS POINT WILL KEEP ANY MENTION AS VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...AND DAY CREW WILL ADJUST AS TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. OTHERWISE...WINDS START THE DAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BEFORE A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER ERN CO RESULTS IN MORE EASTERLY WINDS. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...ADP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 457 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 111200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 457 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE PLATTE RIVER BETWEEN GOTHENBURG AND GRAND ISLAND. THERE IS ALSO A FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST FORK OF THE BIG BLUE RIVER OVER YORK AND FILLMORE COUNTIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...FLOOD WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS BETWEEN GOTHENBURG AND GRAND ISLAND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR AT VIRTUALLY ANY TIME DURING THE DAY 2 THROUGH 7 TIME FRAME...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BEAVER CITY TO GENEVA NEBRASKA AND INCLUDES NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. BEYOND THURSDAY EVENING...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TO PIN DOWN DETAILS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:00 UTC.
9 hail, 9 thunderstorm wind, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A 24-hour rainfall total of 3.46...most of which fell on the evening of the 10th.
A 24-hour rainfall total of 3.24...most of which fell on the evening of the 10th. Also within York County, 3.12 was reported six miles northeast of Waco.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 70 MPH resulted in large tree limbs being downed in Arcadia, some as large as 10-12 in diameter.
A small stretch of Highway 21 was completely covered in hail. Most hail stones were near the size of golf balls, with some as large as 3 in diameter.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 70 MPH resulted in the derailment of seven BNSF freight train cars in extreme western Adams County (the train had a total of 72 cars). Hail up to the size of nickels was also reported in the area.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 65 MPH resulted in some tree damage in Central City, with power line and pole damage also reported.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 60 MPH resulted in tree limbs being downed.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH.
Wind gusts were estimated to be near 60 MPH near the Franklin and Webster County line along Highway 136.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 588881, 588882, 586688, 586689, 588069, 588730, 588731, 588735, 588733, 588736, 588737, 588738, 588739, 588740, 588741, 588743, 588744, 588745, 588748, 588749.