The mid-late afternoon hours on this Tuesday featured a smattering of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms primarily within the southwestern quadrant of South Central Nebraska (generally near/south of Interstate 80 and west of Highway 281). Within this area, there were a handful of severe-criteria wind gust and/or wind damage reports, including estimated 60 MPH gusts with four-inch tree…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
The mid-late afternoon hours on this Tuesday featured a smattering of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms primarily within the southwestern quadrant of South Central Nebraska (generally near/south of Interstate 80 and west of Highway 281). Within this area, there were a handful of severe-criteria wind gust and/or wind damage reports, including estimated 60 MPH gusts with four-inch tree limbs down eight miles south of Elwood, some minor tree damage in Red Cloud and also some limited tree damage and a power line down in Gibbon. There were no reports of large hail. Although there was no ground-truth confirmation of flooding, locally heavy rain in excess of three inches drenched portions of southeastern Harlan and far southwestern Franklin counties due to a combination of not only afternoon convection, but also redevelopment of a few strong storms during the night between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. CDT. Within this small zone, event-total rain totals featured 3.75 two miles northwest of Republican City (NeRAIN observer) and 3.37 at Naponee (NWS coop observer).
Focusing on timing, weak convection got underway early in the afternoon within extreme western portions of South Central Nebraska. However, it took a few hours for strong to severe activity initially over southwestern Nebraska to create a sufficient cold pool and push eastward into the local area between 3-4 p.m. CDT in the form of a north-to-south oriented bowing line segment. While this initial surge of winds resulted in the damage reports from Gosper and Buffalo counties, newly developing multicell storms soon blossomed farther east within counties along the state line, including the one responsible for tree damage in Red Cloud. While there were no reports of severe weather after 4:30 p.m. CDT, fairly widespread coverage of showers and storms persisted within much of South Central Nebraska through around 8 p.m. CDT. Beyond sunset, isolated to scattered thunderstorms redeveloped over several state-line counties along the nose of a modest low level jet, producing the aforementioned heavy downpours in Harlan/Franklin counties. Finally, by 6 a.m. CDT, the vast majority of South Central Nebraska was rain-free. In the larger scale of the mid-upper levels, this event was instigated by a slow-moving, elongated shortwave trough gradually sinking from northwest-to-southeast through the Central Plains. At the surface, afternoon convection intensified just to the north of a quasi-stationary front stretched west-to-east across northern Kansas. Around the time severe storms first entered the local area temperatures were only in the 70s F, but the mesoscale environment contained around 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and deep layer wind shear of 30-35 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 11:34 AM CST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 SHWRS/TSTMS CONT TO ERUPT AND NOW ARE BLOSSOMING OVER N-CNTRL KS. THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND THERE IS ONE OVER RED WILLOW COUNTY RIGHT NOW. HOURLY TEMP FCST WAS STRUGGLING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING PCPN. PLEASE GRANT US SOME LATITUDE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED FROM LEXINGTON DOWN TO BEAVER CITY. AREAS S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH. SEE MD 1606 FROM SPC. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED JUST TO THE W OVER SW NEB DUE TO FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG THE ERN CO BORDER. ELEVATED CAPE IS BTWN 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS 25-30 KTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A SVR TSTM. WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR HAILERS. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND YOU'RE ALREADY SEEING IT ON RADAR. NE 10-15 KTS. WARNING THRESHOLDS FOR HAIL: 50 DBZ TO 31K FT AND 60 DBZ TO 23K FT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ACTIVITY ONGOING ON BOTH THE NRN AND SRN SIDES OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING OUT OF SRN CO...AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ. TO THE W/NW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WY/NRN CO...WHICH WILL BE THE PLAYER BEHIND WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO THE N/NE...CURRENTLY THE CWA IS BARELY OUTSIDE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL SD INTO NC NEB AND INTO NRN MO...SET UP ALONG A LINE OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY IT IS NOW...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE N/NE GETTING PRECIP. AT THE SFC...MOST OF THE CWA SITS WITH ERLY WINDS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN NEB INTO NC KS AND INTO CENTRAL MO. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THAT BOUNDARY...SO WILL INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON OBS TO SEE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES ACTUALLY GET...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF SRN WY/NRN CO. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN/ERN NEB BEING THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING OR SO...WITH ATTENTION TURNING MORE TOWARD THE W/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. THE SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LOOKS TO CREEP NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT EVEN WITHIN 6-12 HRS...MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT ACTUALLY GETS. IT MAY END UP REMAINING CLOSER TO THE NE/KS STATE LINE...WITH SOME SHOWING IT PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO COME AS WE APPROACH/PASS THE MIDDAY HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE MODELS SUGGEST THAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY AND/OR NEAR THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...HAVE 50 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AS MODELS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER SHEAR VALUES SETTING UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA /PUSHING 40KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/...FURTHER NORTHEAST MODEL VALUES STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS EARLY ON. THAT SWRN HALF SITS IN THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SITS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE CONTINUED LIFT AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THENCE DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE INCREASING TEMPERATURES....BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS DRIER PERIOD FATHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DEPENDENT ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PASSING DISTURBANCES. STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...THINK WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO FORCING TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT AS OF THIS TIME...THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS. AS HINTED EARLIER...COULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...AND THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS INCREASES AFTER 21Z. E WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT: DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TSTMS...BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY APPEARS TO BE UNTIL 05Z. HOWEVER...CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL TSTMS AFTER 05Z. MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS MAY THEN DEVELOP...AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EXCEPT IN/NEAR TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: LOW WED THRU 18Z: THE DAY PROBABLY BEGINS WITH IFR OR MVFR STRATUS... AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING TSTMS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 15Z. ESE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ROSSI AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 114 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051815- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 114 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BROKEN BOW TO KEARNEY TO HEBRON NEBRASKA. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION... SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICS IN REGARD TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) HALBLAUB
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 72 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:58 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A 24-hour rainfall total of 3.75 inches occurred two miles northwest of Republican City. This was recorded by an NeRAIN observer (Nebraska Rainfall Assessment and Information Network). In addition, the NWS coop observer at Harlan County Lake tallied 3.34. Rain began during the early afternoon on August 4th.
A 24 hour rainfall total of 3.37 inches occurred in Naponee. Rain began in the early afternoon on August 4th.
Tree limbs that were about four inches in diameter were blown down due to thunderstorm wind gusts.
Several small branches were down around town, along with half of a larger tree, due to an apparent microburst.
Multiple eight-inch diameter tree branches were blown down, and consequently knocked down a power line in Gibbon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597866, 597865, 597867, 597868, 597870.