m. on Wednesday the 5th, two fairly distinct rounds of widespread thunderstorm activity soaked much (but not all) of this six county North Central Kansas area with 1-4 inches of rain, and localized pockets as high as 6-8.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
During an 18-hour stretch between noon CDT on Tuesday the 4th and 6 a.m. on Wednesday the 5th, two fairly distinct rounds of widespread thunderstorm activity soaked much (but not all) of this six county North Central Kansas area with 1-4 inches of rain, and localized pockets as high as 6-8. Not surprisingly, short term flooding of rural roads and fields ensued within the zones of highest rainfall, along with minor flooding along the South Fork Solomon River in southern Smith and northeastern Osborne counties. Although a few storms exhibited radar signatures indicative of marginally severe hail and/or wind, there were no confirming ground truth reports. As a result, flooding concerns took center stage in an environment characterized by precipitable water values averaging 1.50-2.00. The primary swath of 2-4 amounts (and locally higher) was roughly 10-20 miles wide and oriented northwest-to-southeast through most of Smith and Mitchell counties, along with adjacent portions of northern Osborne, southwestern Jewell and far southeastern Phillips counties. Within this broader zone of highest totals, there were mainly three smaller-scale maximums of at least 4-6. The largest of these zones included much of the northern half of Smith County, and particularly the northwest quadrant, where radar estimated a small zone of (unverified) 6-8 amounts. The majority of rain within Smith County fell during the overnight hours, and the highest-known ground truth report was 4.02 from the NWS coop observer in Lebanon. There were at least a few rural roads washed out within the county. The second zone of enhanced rainfall was a small, roughly 5x5 mile section of southeast Mitchell County, featuring a CoCoRaHS total of 6.15 six miles northwest of Barnard. However, rain here did not fall all at once, and was a combination of both afternoon and late-night activity. The third area of primary interest was a tiny, likely no more than 4x4 mile portion of extreme southeastern Phillips County south of Kirwin, where an unofficial total of 5 accumulated in 2-3 hours during the afternoon, resulting in water over numerous rural roads. Given that Smith County bore the brunt of excessive rainfall, much of the runoff steadily worked its way into the North Fork Solomon River upstream of Waconda Lake. At the automated gauge near Portis, the river breached minor flood stage of 15.0 ft. on the morning of the 5th and crested at 16.9 ft. on the morning of the 6th, before slipping below flood late that afternoon. In sharp contrast to the aforementioned pockets of heaviest rain within the six-county area, the majority of Rooks County along with central portions of Phillips and Osborne counties received well under 1, if hardly any at all.
Focusing on timing of this multi-part heavy rain event, round 1 was centered between 1-8 p.m. CDT on the 4th as various clusters of multicell convection traversed the area, largely tied to convergence along a quasi-stationary surface front stretched across the heart of northern Kansas. During this time, the only notable flooding was the localized deluge south of Kirwin. Following a relative minimum in storm activity for a few hours, round 2 got underway around 11 p.m. CDT and persisted through the remainder of the night before vacating local counties shortly before sunrise. This round, which featured repeated development of storms within a northwest-to-southeast axis centered through Smith and Mitchell counties, was largely driven by classic warm air advection/moisture transport along the nose of a modest 25-30 knot low level jet evident at 850 millibars. In the larger scale scene of the mid/upper levels, this entire heavy rain event was instigated by a slow-moving, elongated shortwave trough gradually sinking from northwest-to-southeast through the Central Plains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 4, 5:35 AM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 635 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ACTIVITY ONGOING ON BOTH THE NRN AND SRN SIDES OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING OUT OF SRN CO...AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ. TO THE W/NW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WY/NRN CO...WHICH WILL BE THE PLAYER BEHIND WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TO THE N/NE...CURRENTLY THE CWA IS BARELY OUTSIDE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL SD INTO NC NEB AND INTO NRN MO...SET UP ALONG A LINE OF MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE GENERAL VICINITY IT IS NOW...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE N/NE GETTING PRECIP. AT THE SFC...MOST OF THE CWA SITS WITH ERLY WINDS...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN NEB INTO NC KS AND INTO CENTRAL MO. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING NEAR THAT BOUNDARY...SO WILL INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON OBS TO SEE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES ACTUALLY GET...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY. THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OUT OF SRN WY/NRN CO. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY AFFECTING NRN/ERN NEB BEING THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING OR SO...WITH ATTENTION TURNING MORE TOWARD THE W/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH TIME AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. THE SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LOOKS TO CREEP NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS SOME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT EVEN WITHIN 6-12 HRS...MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT ACTUALLY GETS. IT MAY END UP REMAINING CLOSER TO THE NE/KS STATE LINE...WITH SOME SHOWING IT PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO COME AS WE APPROACH/PASS THE MIDDAY HOURS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BECAUSE MODELS SUGGEST THAT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY AND/OR NEAR THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...HAVE 50 POPS IN PLACE CWA-WIDE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...AS MODELS HAVENT CHANGED MUCH SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE BETTER SHEAR VALUES SETTING UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SWRN HALF OF THE CWA /PUSHING 40KTS DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/...FURTHER NORTHEAST MODEL VALUES STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 20 KTS EARLY ON. THAT SWRN HALF SITS IN THE SPC DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA...THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SITS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE CONTINUED LIFT AIDED BY AN INCREASED LLJ WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BRINGING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND THENCE DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHILE INCREASING TEMPERATURES....BUT PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THIS DRIER PERIOD FATHER OUT INTO THE FUTURE. IN THE MEANTIME...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DEPENDENT ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PASSING DISTURBANCES. STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE LOCAL AREA TO BE ON THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...THINK WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS...WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO FORCING TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH MODEST 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES...COULD LEAD TO A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT AS OF THIS TIME...THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ON THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS. AS HINTED EARLIER...COULD SEE A PATTERN CHANGE LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS IS LOW...AND THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 CERTAINLY NOT A CLEAR-CUT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS BRINGING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS...KEAR IS MORE SOLIDLY IN THE STRATUS VS KGRI WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE ON THE FRINGE OF THE LOWEST CEILINGS. KEAR ALSO CONTINUES TO SEE VISIBILITIES NEAR 1/2SM AT TIMES...WHICH COULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. KEPT ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NC NEB INTO ERN NEB. FOR THE MOST PART IT HAS BEEN DRIFTING E/SE...BUT THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IT TO PUSH FURTHER S THIS MORNING. BETTER CHANCES FOR TS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO COME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS POINT KEPT THE MENTION AS VCTS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY WHERE THINGS WILL DEVELOP. OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS RESULTING IN A BRIEF SWITCH TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT THE PREVAILING DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE E/SERLY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...ROSSI AVIATION...ADP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 430 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 430 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TO PIN DOWN SPECIFICS IN REGARD TO ANY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:01 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 2 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
CoCoRaHS observers reported 24-hour total rainfall of 6.15 inches six miles northwest of Barnard, and 5.61 ten miles south-southwest of Beloit. Also, a 24 hour total of 3.45 was reported by the NWS cooperative observer in Cawker City. These amounts occurred from multiple rounds of heavy rain.
The NWS cooperative observer in Ionia received a 24-hour rainfall amount of 3.20.
Numerous county roads had water rushing across them, especially in the area south of Kirwin Reservoir. As of 3:30 p.m. CDT, an unofficial rainfall total of 5 inches was reported three miles south of Kirwin.
Culverts were washed out one mile north of Gaylord and also two miles northeast of Smith Center. Twenty-four hour rain totals as of 7 a.m. CDT on August 5th included: 4.02 inches in Lebanon and 3.26 in Smith Center (NWS cooperative observers).
Minor flooding occurred on the North Fork Solomon River near Portis between the morning of the 5th and the late afternoon of the 6th. The crest of 16.89 feet occurred on the morning of the 6th (flood stage is 15 ft.).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 597863, 597858, 597852, 597855, 600000.