Another round of heavy rain during the last few days of the month caused the St. Francis River to briefly rise above flood stage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Another round of heavy rain during the last few days of the month caused the St. Francis River to briefly rise above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 2:28 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR KIND AS OF 08Z AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE LAST OF THE DRIZZLE...AND THE FINAL WIND SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST IS WORKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA. MOST 00Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...OR AT LEAST LINGERS AN OPEN TROUGH OVERHEAD. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE BOOTHEEL REGION OF MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ROTATE MORE SHOWERS NORTHWEST/WEST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY AGAIN TUESDAY. THIS REPRESENTS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY...SO WILL LINGER POPS OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT ONLY 20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAMP THEM UP IF THE SIGNAL PERSISTS/STRENGTHENS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CLEARING COMMENCES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A NICE SHOT OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WHEN MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. MONDAY WILL SEE MOST AREAS NEAR 70...AND THEN SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...LOWS WILL NOT BE THAT FAR BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DIFFER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 A PESKY MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED WEATHER PICTURE AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NOT NECESSARILY STABLE...HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY LATELY TO KEEP THE LOW A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA INITIALLY. THEREFORE...IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT...THE FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPROVED INSTABILITY FOR OUR REGION PLUS AN ERLY FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PROBABLY TRANSLATE INTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...FIRST IN WRN KY ON WED...THEN MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THU. BY FRI...THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY (TOWARD FL) TO ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS MOST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BY FRI NIGHT MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY DIVING THROUGH IL MAY IMPINGE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS ENERGY MAY PROVIDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN IN/KY PENNYRILE REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT. NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEAR IN THE MODEL DATA. EXPECT A SLOW TICK UPWARD IN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY DAY 7. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON PEAK TEMPS BY PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE THOUGH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE 60S...MEANING ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW/STORM SYSTEM. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DROPPING OFF SOME BEFORE DAYBREAK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY HELP THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AT KPAH AND POSSIBLY KCGI. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DECIDED TO KEEP CEILINGS NO BETTER THAN MVFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS MAY DROP BACK TO IFR LEVELS BEFORE 06Z MONDAY. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...DRS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-011000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY TODAY...AND ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A FULTON TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY LINE TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SPORADIC LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER ALL OR A PORTION OF THE AREA EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred on the St. Francis River. Low-lying fields and woods were underwater.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 570928.