A shortwave was dropping south across the forecast area triggering isolated thunderstorms along the Mississippi River between Quincy and St. Louis.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
A shortwave was dropping south across the forecast area triggering isolated thunderstorms along the Mississippi River between Quincy and St. Louis.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 3:05 PM CST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 405 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 Isolated convection has formed over the last hour in a narrow north-south band along the Mississippi River from near Quincy to near St Louis. Could be a bit more development over the next several hours, and then anticipate that this activity will quickly dissipate with loss of heating. However, upstream shortwave currently fueling convection over eastern MN and nw WI will be dropping south overnight, and this may return a low shower/thunderstorm threat to areas along and north of I-70 in the midnight-daybreak time frame. Truett .LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday) Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 (Tuesday-Thursday) Weak ripples in the upper level NW flow will continue a threat of showers and a few thunderstorms into the day on Tuesday. Have attempted to reflect a bit of a diurnal trend to the PoPs with afternoon heating and instability leading to a bit more of a threat/coverage, but this trend may certainly be altered by the arrival of the difficult to time shortwaves. At this point I've only made modest tweaks to going forecasts, and will likely have to save any major adjustments to the nowcast time frame. Unfortunately, it appears that several rounds of convection...and more heavy rain...are in the offing as we head into midweek. 12z runs are maintaining trends of previous solutions in forecasting a slight eastward shift of the upper level trof during this time, which willl allow baroclinicity over the plains to work back to the east. Deep UVV is progged to develop across the FA on Tuesday night due to strong shortwave in the NW flow sweeping into the mid-Mississippi Valley, with resultant low level WAA producing strong isentropic ascent over eastward advancing baroclinic zone. Resultant strong lift and rapid eastward advection of lower tropospheric moisture should cause elevated convection to develop during the late evening over western MO and then grow into an MCS which will then work its way east-southeast late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. This round of convection should then be followed by more storms late Wednesday and Wednesday night as yet another shortwave in the NW flow propagates into the region, with both the GFS and NAM suggesting nearly persistent WAA/theta-e advection over the southern half of the CWA in this time frame. Both the GFS and the NAM are progging PWATS of over 2 inches in our area heading into midweek, so storms should be efficient rain- makers...again... It does appear that the heaviest rainfall may be located over the southwest or southern half of the CWA (avoiding the critically water-logged northeast half of the FA), but in reality no spot in our CWA needs any more wet weather. Have mentioned this heavy rain potential in a hydrologic outlook issued earlier this afternoon. A chance of thunderstorms will certain carry into Thursday, but it does appear that the barrage of shortwaves in the Tuesday night- Wednesday night time frame...along with the convection they produce...will cause a southward and westward displacement of the low level baroclinicity, lessening the heavy rain threat by that time. (Friday-Monday) Medium range solutions maintain ridging over the western CONUS and a mean trof over the northeast U.S.,which places mid-Mississippi Valley in the heart of the NW flow regime throughout the period. With shortwaves rippling through this NW flow it appears that there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the Friday-Monday time frame. There should be lots of dry time and certainly don't see any all-day rains at this point, but for now no solution really offers any significant rain-free period. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015 Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add mention to tafs at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to the northwest to west and become light. Then winds to pick back up a bit by mid morning on Tuesday from the west. Specifics for KSTL: Surface low over central Indiana will continue to weaken and lift to the northeast. However will stay in busy northwest flow aloft with more shortwaves sliding south into region. Cu has begun to lift a bit and scatter out more so cigs for the most part are VFR for rest of forecast period. Could see some isolated showers develop this afternoon, but coverage is minimal so did not add mention to taf at this time. Otherwise, north winds to back to the northwest to west and become light by 02z Tuesday. Then winds to pick back up a bit by 15z Tuesday from the west. Byrd && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS: Saint Louis 68 88 70 80 / 20 30 60 60 Quincy 66 84 66 79 / 30 30 40 50 Columbia 66 88 68 80 / 20 20 60 60 Jefferson City 66 88 69 80 / 20 20 60 60 Salem 66 84 67 79 / 20 40 40 60 Farmington 65 87 68 80 / 10 20 50 70 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && WFO LSX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 416 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301145- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 416 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINFIELD LOCK AND DAM 25...GRAFTON AND CHESTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN MAJOR FLOOD THROUGH AT LEAST THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT WINFIELD LOCK AND DAM 25...GRAFTON AND CHESTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. TRUETT
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 445 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 ILZ097-MOZ036-292230- PIKE MO-PIKE IL- 445 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 530 PM CDT... AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BARRY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF LOUISIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... LOUISIANA... ATLAS... PIKE... PLEASANT HILL... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. KANOFSKY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 454 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 ILZ095>097-292245- ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- 454 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS AND NORTHERN PIKE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 545 PM CDT... AT 451 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF BEVERLY...OR 21 MILES EAST OF QUINCY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... BUCKHORN... BEVERLY... GRIGGSVILLE... THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SILOAM SPRINGS STATE PARK. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT... INTERSTATE 72 FROM EXIT 31 TO EXIT 35. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. KANOFSKY
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:15 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large trees around town. Also, a building at the intersection of Tennessee and Water Streets sustained minor roof damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598047, 598048, 598049.