Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, June 29, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRES CENTER IN CENTRAL
IL...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHWRS/TSTMS OF YDA....ALONG WITH A CDFNT
DRAPED OVER QUEBEC/ONTARIO/MANITOBA PROVINCES. IT IS THIS CDFNT...
AS IT SINKS SWD ACRS THE AREA TDA...THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTN
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR TDA WILL BE AREAS OF FOG OVER WRN WI
TDA...RESULTING FROM A HIGHLY MOIST BLYR UNDER THE NIGHTLY INVERSION
WITH CALM WINDS. A NUMBER OF SITES ARE REPORTING 1/4SM WITH CALM
WINDS. THESE CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THRU DAYBREAK SO HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVY FOR ALL THE W-CENTRAL WI COUNTIES
THRU 9AM CDT THIS MRNG.

GOING INTO THE AFTN HOURS...A FAIRLY EVIDENT H7 SHTWV TROF
DISTURBANCE ON WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MRNG RIDING SEWD FROM MANITOBA
WITHIN PRONOUNCED NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER MAINLY THE ERN HALF OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATER TDA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PLENTIFUL LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEWPOINTS
IN THE LWR 60S FOR MUCH OF THE CWFA TDA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
CDFNT...THIS MOISTURE POOLING WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCRS TO ARND
1500 J/KG. MIDLVL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 DEG C ALONG WITH MODEST SHEAR
AND WEAK CAPPING WILL PROMOTE STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD LOOKS TO BE STRONG/DMGG
WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNBURSTS AND OUTFLOW COLLISIONS...WITH
SOME OF THE DEEPER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE BEST
TIMING FOR A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WX LOOKS TO BE IN THE 3PM-9PM
TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DUE TO PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. THE BROAD SWATH
OF THE SFC CDFNT COMBINED WITH THE PATH OF THE SHTWV ALOFT PUTS
VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWFA AT RISK...WHICH IS ALIGNED WELL WITH THE
SWODY1 DEPICTION. THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING
OF THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MRNG...ESP SHOULD WINDS DROP OFF ONCE
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

BY TOMORROW MORNING...THE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK WILL BE
OVERHEAD...WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES.  ALL THE FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF OUR
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE TOPPING THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS.  THE JET STREAK WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST...AND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND PV ADVECTION WILL
BE AIDED IN BRINGING LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET. AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
FORCING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TOWARD
IOWA...JUST SKIMMING WESTERN MN AND LEAVING EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI DRY.  SO...I ENDED UP TRIMMING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE POPS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND LIKELY STILL HAVE BLED TOO FAR EAST BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF.  THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH IN QPF AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SPREADS AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.2" INTO
WESTERN MN...WHICH IS WHY I BLED THE POPS EAST OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF.
HOPEFULLY WE'LL SEE SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT
RUNS OF THE MODELS.  I REDUCED QPF QUITE A BIT ACROSS WESTERN MN
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS INDICATING THE FORCING WEAKENING/SKIMMING
WESTERN MN...AND KEPT THE TWIN CITIES AREA DRY.

THE THURSDAY SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH THE EC BEING A FEW
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS IN BRINING DOWN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE EC STILL INDICATED LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN
THE SUPERBLEND BE...BUT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
PROGRESSION SLOWED DOWN IN THE COMING FORECASTS BASED ON THE TREND.
IN FACT...THE GFS SOLUTION WANTS TO INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
AND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE PRECIP AT
BAY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...SO WOULD NOT BE AT ALL
SURPRISED IF THURSDAY ENDS UP TO BE A DRY DAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC LATE FRIDAY AND FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...AHEAD
OF A DEEP UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO ALBERTA.  FOR OUR
AREA...INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS DRY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80. THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER...BUT THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WITH THE SURFACE LOW COULD SPARK WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY ILLUSTRATES AN IMPRESSIVE LAYER
OF SMOKE FILTERING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA FROM THE WILDFIRES IN CANADA. THIS HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A 6SM HZ AT SOME SPOTS...BUT PRIMARILY TO
THE WEST OF THE TAF AREA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TAF SITES BEING AFFECTED
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z MON AND 00Z TUE. THE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE THE HIGHEST IMPACT AT KSTC-KMSP-KRNH-KEAU...WITH
KAXN AND KRWF LIKELY TO ESCAPE THE ACTIVITY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS...AND COULD SEE SOME STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL AT THE AFFECTED SITES. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO CLEAR OUT
AROUND SUNSET...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING VFR OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART WINDS WILL STAY
HIGH ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THAT THREAT. DO EXPECT A DECENT
PROBABILITY THAT KEAU AND KRNH WILL SEE LOW-END MVFR CIGS
/1000-1500FT/ AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...AS LLVL MOISTURE
FEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST FOR
TUESDAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

KMSP...
TSRA MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KMSP BETWEEN 2030Z AND 2230Z...WITH
SHOWERS IN AREA THROUGH 02Z TUE. PREVALENT VFR
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDER...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COULD SEE WISPS OF MVFR CLOUDS
ATTEMPT TO SNEAK INTO EAST CENTRAL MN FROM WI AROUND DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THINK THE DECK WILL STAY PRIMARILY EAST OF
KMSP...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS ENE AT 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH SLGT CHC MVFR -TSRA. WINDS WSW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301800-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF MINNESOTA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH
OF THE REST OF WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

MNZ043-044-291845-
MORRISON-MILLE LACS-
119 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILLE LACS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

AT 119 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RUM
RIVER...OR 31 MILES EAST OF LITTLE FALLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILACA...FORESTON...BOCK AND PEASE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4587 9352 4558 9351 4578 9375 4594 9384
      4599 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 316DEG 31KT 4591 9372

BORGHOFF