A cluster of thunderstorms moved slowly east along a warm front that extended from the southern Plains to the southeast corner of Missouri. The storms contained heavy rainfall rates over an inch per hour.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A cluster of thunderstorms moved slowly east along a warm front that extended from the southern Plains to the southeast corner of Missouri. The storms contained heavy rainfall rates over an inch per hour.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 22, 1:31 PM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 MINOR DISTURBANCE SEEN OVER SW MO HEADING EAST WITH SOME UPTICK IN CONVECTION NOTED. HRRR HAS A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z-03Z...MOVING THE ACTIVITY EAST. LIGHTNING PROGS OFF THE REFRESH MODEL NOT IMPRESSIVE...AND AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED... MID LEVEL MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ML CAPES MEANS WE WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED. BETTER POPS WILL BE ACROSS SE MO INTO WRN KY AND SRN TIP OF IL INITIALLY. SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY TONIGHT UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. SUPPOSE A SPRINKLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THERE. OVERNIGHT...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE...WITH BEST POPS SRN 1/2 OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT NORTHWARD EXPANSION IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY BY THE NAM EVEN UP TOWARD THE KEVV TRI-STATE AS MOISTURE INCREASES THAT DIRECTION. WILL GUIDE POPS INTO THAT AREA. THURSDAY...BEST POPS WILL SHIFT SE WITH TIME COINCIDENT WITH THE DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY AND BEST MOISTURE...AND AS THE MID TROP FLOW VEERS MORE TO THE NW. THE VEERING WILL CONTINUE WITH DRYING INCREASING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE DO CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER SE MO WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO EXIST. THAT CHANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST 1/2 OF FRIDAY BEFORE HEADING SSE. FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW...BUT THIS IS NOT A GIVEN. WE COULD SEE AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF MISSOURI WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LATE NIGHT CONVECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS. WILL WAIT FOR A MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL. TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF MOS. TRENDED AWAY FROM GFS MOS WHEN IT WAS AT ITS WARMEST ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. IT HAS NOT PERFORMED WELL AS OF LATE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE RECENT HEAT EVENT (OPPRESSIVE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS/HIGH DEW POINT AIR) IN WHICH AMBIENT TEMPS SEEMED TO REACH A LIMIT...JUST BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WOULD PROJECT FOR HIGHS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 THOUGH THE FINER DETAILS ARE MORE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME WILL BE THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE SRN STATES. TWO MAIN NRN STREAM SHRTWVS ARE PROGGED BY THE MED RANGE MODELS TO MOVE BY TO THE NORTH...ONE DURING THE WEEKEND... AND ONE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EACH SHOULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR REGION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A NORTH-SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE IN FAR WRN SECTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A LINGERING WEDGE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...ENCOURAGING MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. WITH THIS SETUP...AFTERNOON TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST VS. THE EAST ESPECIALLY SAT. THUS...HEAT INDICES COULD SPIKE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 SHOULD BE MORE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AFTERWARDS. THE MED RANGE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF NRN STREAM SHRTWV ENERGY ALOFT IN THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE DESTABILIZING EFFECT OF THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WRN KY HAVING THE LEAST POP. IF A SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...IT MAY BECOME UNRECOGNIZABLE. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS A PERSISTENT SRLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. IT APPEARS A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY MAY SET UP IN THE FAR WEST...WITH ANOTHER (POSSIBLY STRONGER) SEWD-MOVING SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHING. THIS SHOULD MEAN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP UNTIL WED...WHEN THE PARENT SHRTWV WILL BE CLOSER TO THE REGION. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AGAIN BY THEN. RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR REGION. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN ANY ONE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF TSTM ACTIVITY. LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WILL PREVAIL...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE TIME...YIELDING THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAT INDICES. && .AVIATION... ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 AREA IS ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE. CU/MID CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER KEVV TRI-STATE. NEXT WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SW MO WILL HEAD EAST ACCOMPANIED BY CHC SHRA MAINLY SE MO / WRN KY...SRN TIP OF IL LATE DAY / EARLY EVENING. COULD BE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS. OVERNIGHT SW OF PERRYVILLE MO...GREENVILLE KY LINE...MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY MID CLOUDS EXPECTED NE OF THERE INCLUDING KEVV / KOWB. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. FUTURE UPDATES CAN ADD UPON INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVERNIGHT. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CN LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...CN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 237 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-231000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 237 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE AREA ALMOST DAILY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0937 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NW PRINCETON 37.18N 87.97W
07/20/2015 CALDWELL KY NWS STORM SURVEY
DOZENS OF TREE LIMBS AND SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN
DOWN.THE ROOF OF A SHED WAS BLOWN OFF AND TWO WINDOWS
WERE BLOWN OUT OF A STORE FRONT.
&&
RICKSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter in Bernie reported 1.3 inches within 40 minutes. Just southwest of Dexter, 0.9 inch fell in 25 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 587365.