Flash Flooding and Flooding in Missouri, August 7 to 10, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0322 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Convection has developed over southwestern Missouri fueled by a
shortwave aloft and modest low level jet/moisture transport. HRRR
and RAP has good handle on this and pushes it southeast into south
central Missouri shortly after 12Z and should weaken and dissipate
through midday. After that, upper level high over the southern
plains and southwest conus will expand northeast towards the
Ozarks later today and tonight. This will be the beginning of
warming temperatures. Expect mainly sunny skies by this afternoon
which will aid in the rise. Expect warmest readings across
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri where highs will be in
the lower to middle 90s, and just middle 80s over the eastern
Ozarks. Heat index values will flirt with advisory criteria for a
few hours this afternoon over southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri, but will hold off on any headlines. A warm and humid
night is in store tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 0322 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

Main forecast concern in this time frame is heat and heat index
values for both Saturday and Sunday and the need for any heat
related headlines. Upper ridge firmly in place across the Ozarks
both days. The hottest days looks to be Sunday with heat index
values in the 105 to 110 degree range. will likely need advisories
area-wide Sunday and perhaps only the western half of the forecast
area Saturday.

Medium range models continue to advertise a shortwave breaking down
the northern extent of the ridge Sunday night and Monday allowing
for a frontal boundary to make into the area. This will bring rain
chances back into the forecast, with the better chances across
central Missouri. It will also help cool temperatures off. This
wave should be east of the area later Monday with northwest flow
and surface high pressure nudging into the area for Tuesday
through Thursday, for cooler and quieter weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

VFR conditions at area terminals will persist much of the
overnight. However changes are anticipated overnight as scattered
showers and thunderstorms develop from southeastern Kansas into
southwestern Missouri north of a warm front. This could result in
thunderstorms in the terminal vicinities and intervals of MVFR
conditions. The scattered storms will diminish by midday Friday as
the warm front lifts north. Expect an increase in southerly winds
by Friday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
919 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
 THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND
 WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
 LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
 STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
  POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

  HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
  THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
  THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ088-089-094-070815-
JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
226 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DADE...NORTHEASTERN
JASPER AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 225 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
GOLDEN CITY...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
MOUNT VERNON...                   LOCKWOOD...
MILLER...                         MEINERT...
RED OAK...                        PENNSBORO...
DUDENVILLE...                     MAPLE GROVE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9424 3735 9419 3735 9408 3743 9408
      3729 9365 3705 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 298DEG 21KT 3734 9413

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ095-103-070830-
CHRISTIAN MO-STONE MO-
247 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHRISTIAN AND NORTHERN STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 247 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CLEVER...OR NEAR REPUBLIC...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
NIXA...                           OZARK...
CLEVER...                         SPARTA...
BILLINGS...                       HIGHLANDVILLE...
FREMONT HILLS...                  HURLEY...
SPOKANE...                        PONCE DE LEON...
CHADWICK...                       LINDEN...
SELMORE...                        BOAZ...
CHESTNUTRIDGE...                  CHRISTIAN CENTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 9360 3710 9360 3709 9309 3691 9305
      3682 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 288DEG 14KT 3704 9348

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ089-094-070900-
DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
314 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE AND NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 314 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LOCKWOOD...OR 9 MILES WEST OF GREENFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
STOCKTON LAKE...                  GREENFIELD...
LOCKWOOD...                       EVERTON...
DADEVILLE...                      SOUTH GREENFIELD...
MEINERT...                        NEOLA...
PENNSBORO...                      SYLVANIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9408 3758 9407 3746 9362 3723 9362
      3718 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 300DEG 16KT 3746 9401

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ094-095-102-103-070900-
CHRISTIAN MO-BARRY MO-STONE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
321 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN...
NORTHEASTERN BARRY...NORTHERN STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 321 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MOUNT VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
AURORA...                         MOUNT VERNON...
MARIONVILLE...                    CLEVER...
CRANE...                          BILLINGS...
VERONA...                         STOTTS CITY...
HURLEY...                         FREISTATT...
HOBERG...                         CHESAPEAKE...
PONCE DE LEON...                  WHEELERVILLE...
ELSEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 38 AND 54.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3704 9397 3714 9394 3722 9380 3712 9361
      3710 9360 3710 9357 3698 9333 3686 9334
      3680 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 304DEG 22KT 3709 9383

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
332 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ090>092-095-096-070915-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-WRIGHT MO-GREENE MO-WEBSTER MO-
332 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...SOUTHERN
WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT...WESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 332 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ROGERSVILLE...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF OZARK...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
ROGERSVILLE...                    AVA...
SEYMOUR...                        SPARTA...
MANSFIELD...                      FORDLAND...
ELKHEAD...                        CHADWICK...
DOGWOOD...                        LINDEN...
GOODHOPE...                       KELTNER...
BRUNER...                         ROME...
OLDFIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 9306 3708 9318 3720 9313 3710 9250
      3680 9267 3681 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 287DEG 33KT 3711 9306

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

MOZ095-096-103>105-070930-
CHRISTIAN MO-OZARK MO-DOUGLAS MO-TANEY MO-STONE MO-
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...
NORTHEASTERN TANEY...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN STONE AND
NORTHWESTERN OZARK COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 343 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HIGHLANDVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE...
LAKE TANEYCOMO...                 FORSYTH...
MERRIAM WOODS...                  KISSEE MILLS...
HIGHLANDVILLE...                  ROCKAWAY BEACH...
BULL CREEK...                     TANEYVILLE...
SPOKANE...                        PONCE DE LEON...
BROWNBRANCH...                    RUETER...
EDGEWATER BEACH...                CHESTNUTRIDGE...
GARRISON...                       POWERSITE...
WALNUT SHADE...                   OZARK BEACH...
CHRISTIAN CENTER...               BRADLEYVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 9346 3699 9332 3681 9267 3662 9277
      3655 9297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0843Z 288DEG 28KT 3686 9327

HATCH