Low pressure along the central California coastline coupled with high pressure located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles created southwesterly flow over southern Arizona and scattered thunderstorms over Graham, Pinal and Pima Counties. Favorable jet dynamics helped thunderstorms become strong enough to produce gusty winds and areas of flash flooding, mainly in the Tucson Metro area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Low pressure along the central California coastline coupled with high pressure located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles created southwesterly flow over southern Arizona and scattered thunderstorms over Graham, Pinal and Pima Counties. Favorable jet dynamics helped thunderstorms become strong enough to produce gusty winds and areas of flash flooding, mainly in the Tucson Metro area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 9:15 AM MST, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 915 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AFTER A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WAS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RATHER LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS ALREADY BUBBLING AROUND SOME DEBRIS FROM LAST NIGHT. WE WON'T NEED AS MUCH SUN AS WE USUALLY DO...BUT WE WILL NEED SOME. FORTUNATELY THE CLEARING TRENDS ARE MORE PROMISING THAN YESTERDAY WITHOUT THE STRONG REMNANT CIRCULATION IN THE DEBRIS WE SAW MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH CURRENT TRENDS WE MAY SEE DELAYED DEVELOPMENT OVER COCHISE COUNTY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORM TRENDS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEBRIS CLOUD. THAT WOULD FAVOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA COUNTY. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS HANDLE THAT PRETTY WELL. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 08/18Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS 9-13 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS MORNING WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. AFTER 07/19Z SCT-BKN CLOUDS DEVELOPING 7- 10 KFT ALONG WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CONDS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS IN AND NEAR TSRA. DECREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE AFTER 08/03Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KSAD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS NEAR 45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT THIS TIME WITH A FOCUS EAST OF TUCSON. ACTIVITY WILL THEN RAMP BACK UP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DOWNSWING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH THE NORMAL AFTERNOON WESTERLIES THROUGH MONDAY. THEN WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY TUESDAY ONWARD. && .PREV DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE LOOPS THIS MORNING SHOW CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WEAKENS IN NORTHERN SONORA MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...WE'RE BEGINNING TO CLOUD OVER EAST OF TUCSON AS THE OLD THUNDERSTORM ANVILS BLOW OFF INTO EASTERN AZ...HOWEVER EVEN THIS CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE THINNING SLOWLY. AT THE SURFACE...WE CONTINUE TO MOISTEN IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH DEWPOINTS THIS HOUR RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S F...UP ABOUT 4-10 DEGS F FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE CIRA LAYERED PWAT PRODUCT SHOWS PW VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 1 INCH NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER UP TO ABOUT 1.4-1.6 INCH FROM TUCSON AND POINTS WEST. WE CERTAINLY HAVE THE JUICE IN PLACE THIS MORNING. GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW DECENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR TUCSON AND EVEN AS FAR WEST AS SELLS...BUT THEY'LL BE FIGHTING WITH HIGHER LFCS AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER THAT FAR WEST. ASSUMING EARLY-MORNING CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO ERODE...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE SET UP FOR GOOD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY FOR MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE INTO PARTS OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION. THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED NICELY BY THE UNIV. OF AZ WRFS...NCAR ENSEMBLE...AND THE 07/05Z HRRRX (WHICH ADMITTEDLY WAS NOT HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS TOO WELL). PER COORDINATION WITH PSR...ADDED PATCHY BLOWING DUST WORDING FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY THIS EVENING WHERE THE LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM INDICATES WE'RE HOLDING ONTO THE DRIEST RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES IN OUR CWA...IN THE 10S TO NEAR 20 PERCENT AND WHERE HIRES MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET DRAGGED EAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE MID- LEVEL HIGH SLIDES TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX. TUCSON MAY VERY WELL BE THE DIVIDING LINE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY BEFORE THEY'RE RELEGATED TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME RESURGENCE OF ACTIVITY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PINWHEEL BACK WEST TOWARDS NM. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN SHUTTING EASTERN ZONES DOWN A BIT. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && MEYER PREV DISCUSSION...CARLAW VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1211 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 AZZ506-509-511-072000- UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD AZ- GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM AZ- SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ- 1211 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PINAL AND WEST CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM MST... AT 1211 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF KLONDYKE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... KLONDYKE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3276 11031 3280 11054 3314 11049 3309 11013 TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 195DEG 19KT 3293 11039 MEYER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1221 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 AZZ505-072000- SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ- 1221 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM MST... AT 1220 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PICACHO PEAK JUST SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 10...MOVING NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PICACHO...PICACHO PEAK AND RED ROCK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... BLOWING DUST CAN QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY...CAUSING ACCIDENTS THAT MAY INVOLVE CHAIN COLLISIONS. IF DENSE DUST IS OBSERVED ACROSS A ROADWAY...PULL YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE PAVEMENT AS FAR AS POSSIBLE TO STOP. TURN OFF THE LIGHTS...SET THE EMERGENCY BRAKE...AND TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE BRAKE PEDAL TO ENSURE TAIL LIGHTS ARE NOT ILLUMINATED. && LAT...LON 3251 11130 3254 11152 3275 11150 3263 11127 TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 197DEG 9KT 3259 11139 MEYER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1231 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015
AZZ506-072000-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
1231 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
100 PM MST...
AT 1229 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER DUDLEYVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAYDEN...WINKELMAN...DUDLEYVILLE AND ARAVAIPA CREEK PRESERVE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS STORM IF CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3283 11066 3286 11088 3312 11087 3299 11079
3299 11077 3304 11072 3307 11072 3308 11071
3308 11069 3311 11068 3311 11066 3314 11063
3313 11059 3315 11058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 187DEG 19KT 3297 11076
CERNIGLIASPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1242 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 AZZ504-072030- TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ- 1242 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM MST... AT 1241 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TORTOLITA JUST SOUTHEAST OF MARANA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ORO VALLEY...MARANA...CASAS ADOBES...TORTOLITA...FLOWING WELLS...DOVE MOUNTAIN AND PICTURE ROCKS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3229 11097 3234 11117 3249 11119 3250 11094 TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 193DEG 6KT 3239 11106 MEYER
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 67 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:56 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood, 2 lightning. Local standard time, as filed.
A power pole was knocked down near the intersection of Camino de Oeste and Lambert Lane.
Water flowing across Linda Vista Blvd west of Hartman Lane caused at least 1 vehicle to become disabled.
A 45-year old tree was struck by lightning. It landed in a woman's backyard when it fell, and no other damage occurred.
Thunderstorm winds uprooted and knocked down a large palo verde tree near the entrance of Orange Grove Estates on Orange Grove Rd. just east of Thornydale Rd. Additional damage occurred in the complex as the gates around an outdoor recreational area were blown away.
A lightning strike shattered a 30-ft tree in the Orange Grove Estates complex.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain on top of ground saturated from storms earlier in the day. Runoff caused 3 vehicles to become stranded due to high water near Sunrise and Pontatoc Roads.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598368, 597674, 597675, 599895, 599893, 599894, 597676.