An area of thunderstorms moved northeast from Arkansas, passing across southeast Missouri during the hottest and most unstable time of day. The storms occurred in advance of a weak 500 mb shortwave trough over western Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An area of thunderstorms moved northeast from Arkansas, passing across southeast Missouri during the hottest and most unstable time of day. The storms occurred in advance of a weak 500 mb shortwave trough over western Missouri. A warm front lifting northeast across Arkansas provided additional support for the storms. Very heavy rain was the primary hazard with the storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 2:11 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 311 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 222 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Upper level trof continues to slowly move east across the middle Mississippi/lower Ohio River valleys this afternoon. Scattered showers/thunderstorms have broken out in association with this feature and the heat of the day. These showers will try to move east across the MS River early this evening...but coverage will likely decrease as we lose low lvl heating. Cold front still expected to approach the region late tonight/early Sunday. Decent instability is progged to form ahead the the front by late morning/early afternoon along/ahead of the front over se IL/wrn KY/sw IN. SB CAPES could be running up around 3000 J/KG by 18z. Limiting factor for organized severe threat may end up being the relatively weak wind profiles. SFC-6KM bulk shear only progged to be running in the 25-30 kt range. Mid lvl support should also be weak. However, cannot rule out some isolated marginal severe if enough instability can be generated. Scattered storms will move east of the region by late in the day as the front departs. Much drier and unseasonably cool conditions will then filter in behind the front Monday and Monday night as high pressure pushes se through the Plains. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 222 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Under a highly amplified flow pattern aloft, high sfc pressure will dominate across the midsection of the country for most of the extended period. Nnwrly flow aloft will persist over the PAH forecast area, tending to keep deep layer cool dry Canadian air flowing into our region. Late next week, the med range models are in good agreement that the mid/upper pattern will begin to deamplify as substantial shrtwv energy moves into srn Canada and the Great Lakes region. This will result in a weak flow pattern to the east of the persistent swrn CONUS ridge aloft, and thus over our region. By Sat (Day 7), as deeper moisture increases somewhat, an isold shower or tstm appear possible during the heat of the day in nwrn parts of our region near mid level shrtwv energy (and possibly a sfc reflection?) on the ern periphery of the swrn CONUS ridge. Otherwise a rain-free mostly clear forecast is in play. Expect pleasant weather, with below average temps through the extended period, and a slow warming trend. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 Isolated shra/tstms are possible KCGI/KPAH through mid afternoon, but chances are too low to include in TAF. Patchy dense lifr fog cannot be ruled out late tonight...mainly at KCGI, otherwise vfr conditions are expected. May be some low vfr cigs in the afternoon though...esp at kcgi/kpah. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && SHORT TERM...MEFFERT LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...MEFFERT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 445 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-230945- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 445 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS, AND FAR WEST KENTUCKY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY, SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Torrential rain caused a street along the Mississippi River to become flooded. Several cars stalled in the floodwater. Police blocked the street for about 30 minutes. The side street was next to the river campus of Southeast Missouri State University.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 593433.