Hail and Damaging Winds in Mississippi, March 30 to 31, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...ALL QUIET ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING THANKS
LARGELY TO A SOLID CAP...WHICH WAS EVIDENT ON MOST REGIONAL 00Z
RAOBS. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST RECENTLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
NE ARKANSAS/MO BOOTHEEL/PURCHASE REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BEGIN TO REACH THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THOUGH STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED...ORIGINATING ABOVE THE FRONTAL
SLOPE...MID LEVEL LAPS RATES IN THE 6.5-7.5 C/KM RANGE SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO/GRAPHIC PRODUCTS...BUT WILL
FOCUS THE LIMITED AREA CLOSER TO THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AS INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT DUE TO AN OVERALL
DECREASE IN INSTABILITY. UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
/DL/

&&

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FORECAST THINKING SINCE THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND TSRA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 06-10Z. LESSENING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE HKS/JAN-
MEI CORRIDOR AROUND 12Z. FARTHER SOUTH...INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN LIFR CATEGORY FOG/STRATUS...BUT EXPECT
CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE
SOME SHOWERS LINGERING WITH IT BUT THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD
HAVE DIMINISHED THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GET. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND LIKELY WOULD BE A FOCUS
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY GIVEN
DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND A SFC HIGH
WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA
DRY MONDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...YET AGAIN BRINGING WARMER...MOISTER AIR INTO THE REGION.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY...DAYTIME HEATING INTERACT WITH A LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SHEAR WILL BE DECENT AS WILL VERTICAL TOTALS TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THUS WE HAVE CONTINUED THE LIMITED
RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND ON TUESDAY BUT SHIFTED THE THREAT AREA FURTHER
EAST TO ENCOMPASS ALL LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-20.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND
HEATING WILL COMBINE TO BRING AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHER
HEIGHTS MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AN END TO
THESE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS. HOWEVER...A STALLED FRONT
WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
TRACKS TO THE EAST...IT WILL EVENTUALLY BRING THIS FRONT DOWN INTO
OUR REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF EASTER WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EARLY
INDICATIONS AT THIS POINT SHOW THAT EASTER ITSELF SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS A SFC HIGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FOR THE SOUTHWEST
LOCALES LATER IN THE DAY. /28/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/EC/28/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>042-310245-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
AND INTERACTS WITH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ACROSS OUR REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ043>066-072>074-310245-
RICHLAND-MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
940 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
GREATER AND HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
TWENTY CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
AND INTERACTS WITH INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR ACROSS OUR REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
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...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

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SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
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SPC...STORM REPORTS...
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NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
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