Flash Flood and Flooding in Minnesota, June 22 to 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
640 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

ALL EYES AGAIN ON THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
TODAY. A COUPLE OF AREAS TO WATCH. FIRST AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AN EAST-WEST LINE ACROSS NORTHERN IA ON THE NOSE OF THE BEST
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS LINE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS IT IS
ANCHORED TO A WARM FRONT/TROUGH. ANTICIPATE THIS DRIFTING INTO THE
NORTHEAST IA BEFORE AROUND SUNRISE...AND INTO SOUTHEAST MN AROUND
12Z. MODELS FORECAST INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG
WITH THE HIGH BULK SHEAR OVER 60KTS...SO SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE TO
OUR WEST...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN
SD AND WESTERN MN. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AND WERE RACING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. THESE STORMS
ARE DRIVEN BY A POTENT SHORT WAVE...WITH A PIECE MOVING THROUGH
ND AND A STRONGER PIECE DROPPING IN FROM SASKATCHEWAN. THESE
STORMS ARE ON TARGET TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. GIVEN
THAT THIS IS TYPICALLY A DIURNAL LULL TIME FOR STRONG STORMS...IT
IS EXPECTED THAT THEY WILL BE WEAKENING TO SOME DEGREE. BUT GIVEN
THE STRONG DYNAMICS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STRONG OR SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. CURRENTLY...SPC HAS
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN MN UNTIL 9 AM...
EXCEPT FOR OUR 7 COUNTIES. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG...OUR
COUNTIES COULD BE ADDED.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND DEPARTING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. BUT JUST AS WE REACH THE MAXIMUM HEATING TIME OF DAY...
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST NEW
CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL BE
THE BIG QUESTION. WILL WE HAVE TIME TO RECOVER FROM THE MORNING
ACTIVITY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY? THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS
WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND EAST COUNTIES OF OUR SERVICE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BUT THERE MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TIME AND/OR SUPPORT FOR THESE TO BECOME SEVERE AGAIN. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES
BEHIND THE INITIAL CONVECTION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS COMING. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE LINGERING TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN MOVING
BACK NORTH AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...AND AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW THEY WILL HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES UP AND OVER THE BOUNDARY. THIS
COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
HAVING RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEYOND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST IS LOWERING AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO
SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN POLAR VORTEX SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH MORE OF A
FLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION EXPECTED. BUT THE VARIOUS MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE DEGREE OF COLD INTRUSION. THE
UNFORTUNATE SIDE EFFECT OF THIS COOLER AIR /BESIDES THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES/ IS THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SUNSHINE
POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MAIN TAF CONCERNS IS COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
INTO THE RST/LSE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT MVFR AND POTENTIAL IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES. BEHIND THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING WIND GUST OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE IS POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 16Z. HAVE EXTENDED THE TEMPO GROUP TO
16Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POTENTIAL WIND GUST BEHIND THE LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MIXING DOWN ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUST BEHIND COLD FRONT AFTER 19Z TODAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH RST/LSE TAF SITES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DTJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
420 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-231030-
MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-ALLAMAKEE-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-
CLAYTON-WABASHA-DODGE-OLMSTED-WINONA-MOWER-FILLMORE-HOUSTON-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-LA CROSSE-MONROE-JUNEAU-
ADAMS-VERNON-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-GRANT-
420 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-
DAY...BUT AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE NEW STORMS...WHICH
SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM NEILLSVILLE AND
BLACK RIVER FALLS WISCONSIN...DOWN TO OELWEIN IOWA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED.

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
515 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

MNZ086-087-094-095-221100-
OLMSTED-FILLMORE-DODGE-MOWER-
515 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOWER...DODGE...
FILLMORE...AND OLMSTED COUNTIES...

AT 513 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BLOOMING PRAIRIE TO NEAR AUSTIN...AND MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BROWNSDALE AND ROSE CREEK AROUND 520 AM CDT.
  HAYFIELD AND ADAMS AROUND 530 AM CDT.
  LE ROY AROUND 545 AM CDT.
  GRAND MEADOW AROUND 550 AM CDT.
  BYRON AROUND 555 AM CDT.
  STEWARTVILLE AROUND 600 AM CDT.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AT
SPEEDS OF NEARLY 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 630 AND 7 AM. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THOSE STORMS.

LAT...LON 4396 9305 4407 9244 4351 9244 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 255DEG 26KT 4383 9299 4354 9286

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
604 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

IAZ008>010-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-095-221200-
FLOYD-WINNESHIEK-MITCHELL-HOWARD-CHICKASAW-OLMSTED-FILLMORE-DODGE-
MOWER-
604 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING...

CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BRING
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. A LINE OF STRONGER STORMS WILL FOLLOW THAT...BETWEEN 7AM AND 9AM...
THAT COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SO REMAIN ALERT FOR WARNINGS AND SEVERE WEATHER.

BE CAREFUL NEAR TREES AND POWER LINES THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AS THE STRONGER
WINDS MOVE IN.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4420 9269 4415 9268 4419 9268
      4420 9233 4411 9232 4410 9208 4386 9208
      4385 9230 4384 9173 4350 9173 4350 9161
      4308 9161 4308 9208 4291 9208 4291 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 269DEG 49KT 4399 9300 4309 9299

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 AM     HAIL             ELKADER                 42.86N 91.40W
06/22/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLAYTON            IA   PUBLIC

&&

RLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
646 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW AUSTIN             43.65N 93.00W
06/22/2015  E2.21 INCH       MOWER              MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

RLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
648 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     HAIL             1 N CRESCO              43.38N 92.12W
06/22/2015  E1.25 INCH       HOWARD             IA   PUBLIC

&&

RLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
728 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     HAIL             PRAIRIE DU CHIEN        43.04N 91.14W
06/22/2015  E0.75 INCH       CRAWFORD           WI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CITY OF PRAIRIE DU
            CHIEN VIA BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DTJ