Wildfire in Alaska, June 22, 2015

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
327 AM AKDT MON JUN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...CONTINUED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE SHORT TERM.
THE FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TO THE ARCTIC COAST MID WEEK IS BEING
REFLECTED IN ALL THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY MORE
DYNAMIC THIS RUN. MODELS DID NOT PICK UP ON THE 80 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES ON THE ARCTIC COAST YESTERDAY EAST OF BARROW. MODELS
HAVE NOT DONE WELL HANDLING ALL THE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS AS INDICES WERE NOT AT LEVELS THAT WOULD
INDICATE AS MUCH AS WE HAVE HAD. NOT CHANGING MUCH IN THE GRIDS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WILL
HOWEVER KNOCK A COUPLE DEGREES OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE MOST
AREAS ARE GETTING ENOUGH SMOKE THAT IT IS HINDERING THE SOLAR
HEATING.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR FROM A 572 DAM
CLOSED HIGH CENTER OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER YAKUTAT AND THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGING
REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA WITH THE CENTER MOVING EAST
OVER KALTAG BY MONDAY EVENING AT 570 DAM...THEN OVER DENALI BY
TUESDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE ARCTIC TODAY. A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA
WILL MOVE OVER WRANGEL ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING EAST
OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT STALLS. THE RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR EVENTUALLY GETS PINCHED OUT AS A 551 DAM LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN SETS
UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE NEXT WEEKEND. AT 850
HPA...THE SHORTWAVES WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE ARCTIC AND NORTHWEST COAST BY MID WEEK AND OVER MOST OF THE
STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS DOWN TO AROUND 5
CELSIUS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP TUESDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COOL DOWN SENDS TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING THE ZERO
ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO KIVALINA...AND BY FRIDAY
MORNING FROM DEADHORSE TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER NORTON SOUND. BY
SATURDAY THE GFS EVEN PUSHES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA BUT KEEPS IT WEST OF THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY.

SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE STATE FROM MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO ANVIK TO NUNIVAK
ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO LIE FROM OLD CROW TO TANANA
TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FROM JUST NORTH OF
EAGLE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC TODAY...THIS WILL
QUASH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT THEY WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A BALL OF WARM AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA
WITH A 1013 MB BUBBLE HIGH THAT BREAKS OFF THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AN CHUKCHI SEA. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND WORK ITS WAY EAST TO BE OVER
PRUDHOE BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER MACKENZIE BAY BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER
COASTER THIS WEEK AS A COUPLE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER
TODAY...MUCH WARMER ON TUESDAY FROM BARROW WEST AND OVER INTERIOR
AREAS...SLIGHT WARMER OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. THEN VERY WARM OVER
THE EASTERN ARCTIC WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG COOLING TREND FROM
BARROW WEST. SPORT MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS INDICATE THE AREA IS
MOSTLY CLEAR ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE COOLER AIR EXPECT
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
WILL BE ALL OVER THE COMPASS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY
LESS THAN 20 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF RUBY AND EAST OF KALTAG TODAY...TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. QUIET ON THE COAST WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH MAINLY 70S IN
THE COASTAL AREAS AND 80S INLAND. BIG COOL DOWN FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE YUKON RIVER...MORE TO
COME ON THAT AS IT GETS CLOSER. WINDS MAINLY NORTHWEST 5 TO 15
MPH...EXCEPT INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE VARIABLE TO 10
MPH. SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL AS SOME SMALL HAIL. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ONLY ABOUT 3/4
INCH. CAPE VALUES ARE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 JOULES. HAIL POSSIBLE
UP TO 1/2 INCH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL THICKEN
OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF THUNDER YESTERDAY...JUST
NOT AROUND FAIRBANKS. EXPECT MORE TODAY AS CONVECTIVE INDICES REMAIN
DECENT. LIFTED INDEX AROUND MINUS 1 WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 400 TO
700 JOULE RANGE. LIKE SUNDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE
EAST OF FAIRBANKS WITH MODERATE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AROUND 3/4 INCH SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO HAIL TO 1/2
INCH...MAINLY IN THE STORMS TO THE EAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AT 5 TO 15 MPH. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL THICKEN OVERNIGHT THEN
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHTLY DRIER TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY RED FLAGS TODAY OR
TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A MUCH BIGGER ISSUE WITH ALL THE
CURRENT FIRES AND A LOT OF FIRE FIGHTERS IN THE FIELD. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THE HORIZON FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WE HAVE TO GET
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WARM DAYS FIRST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...FREEZING LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10000 FEET AND
SOME OF THE GLACIALLY FED RIVERS ARE SEEING SMALL RISES...WITH THE
COOLING TREND LATER IN THE WEEK EXPECT FREEZING LEVELS TO FALL TO
6000 TO 8000 FEET. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND FOR PKZ240.

&&

SDB JUN 15