A cold front helped kick off a few severe thunderstorms in northern lower Michigan on the afternoon of the 18th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A cold front helped kick off a few severe thunderstorms in northern lower Michigan on the afternoon of the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 10:05 AM EST, 1 hour 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 ...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY... OVERVIEW: PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION. ATTENDING SFC LOW ANALYZED ACROSS QUEBEC WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ON INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. BUT WE ARE SEEING A NICE NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH HAS KICKED OFF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS...INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION IS PALTRY. NONETHELESS...PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (SEEN ON APX 12Z SOUNDING) APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET SOME THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. REST OF TODAY...SFC COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN RATHER QUICKLY TODAY. GIVEN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND SOME DECENT HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...I DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE REVAMPED POPS/TIMING TO REFLECT THAT THINKING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SEVERAL HOURS OF HEATING SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SPEED SHEARS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION...COULD GET SOME BETTER ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE E/SE PART OF THE CWA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. && .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA BEGINS TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. ONLY PRECIP TO SPEAK OF ATTM REMAINS UPSTREAM OF OUR CWA OVER UPPER MICHIGAN PER KMQT BASE REF IMAGES...DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LACK OF INSTABILITY HAS PRECLUDED ANY THUNDER WITHIN THIS BKN LINE OF SHOWERS. PRIMARY FORECASTS CONCERN FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THRU OUR CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND THE RAP DEVELOP A WEAK WAVE OVER WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN TODAY. MUCAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF OUR CWA...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL. THIS IS WHERE OUR GREATEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL RESIDE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THANKS TO FROPA DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. ALSO...SOME DESCENT SPEED SHEAR WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THIS AREA BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS OUR SE CWA FOR A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SVR STORMS...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND EXTENDED POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BASED ON LATEST FROPA PROJECTIONS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL LEND TO A LARGER SPREAD OF TEMPS TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 70S IN OUR FAR SE CWA. && .SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: FAST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SQUARELY CENTERED BETWEEN BROAD SOUTHERN RIDGING AND DEEP TROUGHING ROTATING AROUND THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FAST MOVING...HARD TO TIME...WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH STILL APPEARS DISCONNECT WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN THEM AND MUCH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THIS MAY PREVENT A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...PASSING WAVES WORKING ON A MODESTLY MOST ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING SATURDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DETAILS: WORK WEEK ENDS ON A QUIET NOTE AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER...DESPITE SLOWLY PASSING OFF TO THE EAST. ALL STRONG WAA WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST...WITH PERHAPS JUST SOME HINTS OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN VIA SLOWLY INCREASING CIRRUS. VERY COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY TO THE SUNSHINE...BUT SHOULD STILL END UP A LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ALL DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL BE REMOVED WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST (THE LATTER TIED TO REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM BILL). SLOWER IS DEFINITELY THE TREND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SATURDAY...LIKELY A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF "BILL" PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WHAT MID LEVEL SUPPORT DOES ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE IN WEAKENING MODE...ALTHOUGH NICE SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RER UPPER JET SUPPORT MAY COMPENSATE SOME. MAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWER/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHEN ABOVE FORCING INTERACTS WITH FAVORED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MORNING ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER ALONG SURGE OF STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION TIED TO PASSING LOW LEVEL JET. MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL SIMILAR EVENTS...ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH IN VICINITY OF MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY. && .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES. JUST REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A GOOD FEEL ON SHOWER POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH YET TO BE SEEN FAST MOVING WAVES IN OVERHEAD AGGRESSIVE FLOW AT LEAST OFFERING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL AT TIMES. PER THE USUAL IN SUCH A PATTERN...THIS FORECAST WILL APPEAR MUCH WETTER THAN WHAT WILL LIKELY ACTUALLY OCCUR...SIMPLY AN UNFORTUNATE PRODUCT OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY. NOW...AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED...LATEST HIGHER RES GUIDANCE PROGS HAVE INCREASINGLY ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS HEAT DOME/RIDGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALL-THE-WHILE TROUGHING RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. ABOVE IS A PRIME PATTERN FOR PERIODIC RIDGE RIDING MCS'S (SO CALLED RING OF FIRE) TO PIVOT SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR WILL ALIGN ITSELF. WILL SAY IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...MOST IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...PLACING THE MOST ACTIVE TEMP/INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST. ONLY TIME WILL TELL...OF COURSE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU THURSDAY NIGHT DESPITE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS FROPA OCCURS DURING MAX HEATING/DIURNAL INSTABILITY. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME N/NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 WINDS AND WAVES WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER ACROSS NE LWR MICHIGAN AND THUS THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...ADAM NEAR TERM...MLR SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MSB AVIATION...MLR MARINE...MLR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1205 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041- 042-191615- STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING BOIS BLANC ISLAND- PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI- GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE- NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI- POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI- MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI- WHITEFISH BAY (U.S. PORTION)/WHITEFISH POINT TO POINT IROQUOIS MI- ST. MARYS RIVER POINT IROQUOIS TO E. POTAGANNISSING BAY-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 1205 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS MAY BE MADE ONE OF THREE WAYS: ONLINE: WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD FACEBOOK: FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.GAYLORD.GOV TWITTER: TWITTER.COM/NWSGAYLORD && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD.
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 14 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:54 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees and power lines were downed on both side of Frederic, along Old 27. Winds were estimated at 60 to 70 mph.
Trees were uprooted along US-131 near Fife Lake, as well as in a yard in the community.
Several trees and power lines were downed near the intersection of Cherry Creek Road and Camp Ten Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 591833, 591832, 591831.