A series of weak Alberta clipper disturbances produced 14 inches of lake effect snowfall in Grand Marais over a two-day period.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A series of weak Alberta clipper disturbances produced 14 inches of lake effect snowfall in Grand Marais over a two-day period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 6:41 AM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 641 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 QUIET WEATHER IS THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES IS NOW OVER EASTERN LOWER MI/LAKE HURON...BUT PRES GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS UPPER MI...SO WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE UPPER LAKES MAY HAVE PRODUCED A FEW FLURRIES IN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH DURING THE NIGHT. THIN CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE NIGHT OVER THE E ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW IN LUCE COUNTY. TEMPS HAVE SINCE RISEN SOME. YESTERDAYS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS ESSENTIALLY ICE COVERED. AS IS TYPICAL WHEN THE LAKE APPROACHES HIGH ICE CONCENTRATION...THERE IS ONE LAST LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTERED TO THE N OF MUNISING. IT IS PROBABLY ROUGHLY 95 MILES IN WIDTH N TO S AND 80 MILES IN WIDTH W TO E. THE ICE COVER WILL OBVIOUSLY SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT LES IN THE COMING DAYS. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SE THRU MANITOBA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BASICALLY ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE TODAY WITH COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS UPPER MI TONIGHT. AS S TO SW WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AHEAD OF APPOACHING FRONT...MAY SEE SOME -SHSN SPREAD N UP LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE ERN FCST AREA FOR A TIME. KGRB RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS -SHSN ALONG MIDLAKE CONVERGENCE TO AS FAR N AS JUST OFF THE DOOR PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...AS DEEP LAYER FORCING ARRIVES THIS AFTN...ISOLD/SCT -SHSN MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN UPPER MI. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 10-15F RANGE. NORMALLY...WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF MDT/HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO ACCOMPANY FROPA...BUT WITH WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MOSTLY ICE COVERED... THERE WILL BE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT. OF COURSE...THE ICE COVER IS NOT SOLID...SO THERE WILL BE SOME HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES TO AID SCT -SHSN PRODUCTION TONIGHT OVER THE W...BUT CERTAINLY NOT THE MDT/HVY LES THAT WOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN'T BE ANY MORE THAN AROUND 1 INCH. TO THE E...THE REMAINING OPEN WATER WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH BETTER LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT THE AFFECT OF THE ICE ON WIND DIRECTION/CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE PINPOINTING THE HEAVIER SNOW MORE CHALLENGING. WILL PROBABLY SEE WINDS CONVERGING INTO ERN ALGER COUNTY DUE TO THE ICE COVER TO THE E OF THE KEWEENAW AND DUE TO THE ICE COVER DOMINATING MUCH OF THE AREA E OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND. WITH INVERSION UP AT 7-8KFT AND DGZ EXTENDING TO 3KFT ABOVE THE GROUND...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY LES TO DEVELOP OFF THE OPEN WATER AREA. WITH FROPA IN THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT...SNOW WON'T REALLY GET GOING UNTIL THEN. FOR NOW...HAVE INCLUDED A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AREA BASICALLY BTWN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS BY 12Z TUE. ALTHOUGH THE INFLUX OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL LIMIT SNOW RATIOS...SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS IS THE ROUGHLY OVAL SHAPE OF THE OPEN WATER AREA AS THAT WILL LEAD TO MUCH STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND EVEN A POSSIBLE SINGLE DOMINATE BAND...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN ON LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WHEN GRADIENT WINDS ARE PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXIS OF THOSE LAKES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 EXPECT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND BITTER COLD AIR FLOWING FM GREENLAND TO THE GREAT LAKES MOST OF THE WEEK. PEAK OF COLD REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS FALL BLO -30C. LIKELY WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETTER SHOT AT WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH VALUES A SOLID 25-30 BLO OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. COLD WILL BE OF LONG DURATION. AIR TEMPS IN SOME PARTS OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NOT RECOVER ABOVE ZERO UNTIL MIDDAY FRIDAY...AT LEAST 60 HOURS. GIVEN THE RAPIDLY EXPANDING ICE COVER OVER LK SUPERIOR...WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LANDLOCKED EVERYDAY...AND WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN ONTARIO LATER THIS WEEK. ALREADY SAW MIN TEMPS ON SUNDAY MORNING LOWER THAN 20 BLO OVER INTERIOR NORTHERN PART OF KEWEENAW INDICATING TRANSITION TO LESS LAKE MODIFICATION IS WELL UNDERWAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR...LES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN SNOW BELTS EAST OF MARQUETTE DOWNSTREAM OF AREA OF OPEN WATER STILL PRESENT ON EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DUE TO THE BUILDING ICE COVER OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN WAY OF LES OVER THE WEST CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY POPS TO LOW CHANCES. DIFFERENT STORY FOR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. ON TUESDAY...SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS UP TO 5-6KFT BUT DECENT AMOUNT OF LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER WILL STILL BE WARMER THAN -18C TO START...SO SLR/S OVER 20:1 ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL BOOST SNOW TOTALS. CONVERGENCE AREA MAXIMIZES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND DOWNSTREAM OVER SNOW BELTS MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING NAM AND GEM-REGIONAL POINT TO AT LEAST 0.05 INCH OF QPF EVERY 6 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY OVER 0.10 INCH PER 6 HOURS...IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE INVERSIONS AND HIGHER SLR/S INITIALLY WOULD NOT BE OUT OF QUESTION TO SEE AT LEAST LOCALIZED MODERATE SNOW ACCUMS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ON TUESDAY FOR THE SNOW BELTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF NEWBERRY. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS SOME HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF STRONG CONVERGENT BAND DOES INDEED DEVELOP. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS CORE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY.. INVERSIONS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR SURGE UP TO AROUND 10KFT AND LAKE EQL COULD REACH 15KFT. MIXED LAYER WINDS 25-30 KTS. PRIMARY ISSUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BY THIS TIME WILL BE POOR VSBY INSTEAD OF SNOW AMOUNTS AS SNOW GROWTH WILL QUICKLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE BITTER COLD AIR/VERY FINE SNOW FLAKES. AS LONG AS AREA OF OPEN WATER PERISTS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR...MAY NEED ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR LOCALIZED AREAS DUE TO LES WITH POOR VSBY AT TIMES. BEST SHOT OF HEADLINES WOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN INVERSIONS ARE HIGHEST AND WINDS ARE STRONGEST. POSSIBLE THAT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF QUITE POOR CONDITIONS COULD FORM AS CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAXIMIZED DUE TO MORE BACKED NW WINDS OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR WITH GREATER ICE COVERAGE AND THE TYPICAL NERLY DRAINAGE FLOW OFF ONTARIO OVER THE EXPANDING ICE COVER IN FAR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NAM/GFS INDICATE THAT CONVERGENCE BAND WOULD OCCUR VCNTY OF ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY...SO OVERALL PRETTY SIMILAR LOCATION TO WHERE IT MAY SET UP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WAVERING OF THE HEAVIEST BAND COULD OCCUR THOUGH AS BLYR WINDS ARE MORE NW ON TUESDAY THEN BRIEFLY VEER MORE NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS COLDEST AIR ARRIVES...THEN BACK MORE NW AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE BUILDING RIDGE MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THAT ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FULLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BACK LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO BEGIN DISRUPTING LES THAT IS ONGOING. BY FRIDAY...RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER OHIO VALLEY AND RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF UPPER LAKES. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SW AND LES TO END ON LK SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE RIDGE AND MOVES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY EVENING. FOR A CHANGE...ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BRING IN QPF FM THE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. BOTH MODELS ALONG WITH THE GEM-NH CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD LGT QPF TRACKING OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. S-SW WINDS AND RETREATING COLD AIRMASS /H85 TEMPS AROUND -20/ DOES RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LK MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES. WINDS MAY REMAIN TOO WESTERLY TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT AND ICE COVER ON LK MICHIGAN HAS BUILT UP RECENTLY SO THIS COULD ALSO IMPACT THE POTENTIAL. H7 MIXING RATIOS INTO THE SYSTEM BARELY REACHING 1G/KG...SO NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR MUCH SNOW ON ITS OWN. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE LGT SNOW FOR MOST CWA BUT WOULD PROBABLY NOT NEED A HEADLINE AS IT STANDS NOW. MORE COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS BLO -20C PUSHES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LES SHOULD BE TEMPERED THOUGH AS MOST OF LK SUPERIOR SHOULD BE ICE COVERED BY THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL INTO THE AFTN HRS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. -SHSN AND MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SPREAD INTO UPPER MI FROM W TO E LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 509 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE LAKE THIS WEEK BRINGING IN ANOTHER BITTER COLD AIRMASS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATE THIS WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL BE 30 KTS OR LESS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO WHEN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED. WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IS MAINLY ICE COVERED AND DUE TO THE ARCTIC AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS LATE THIS WEEK...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOST OF THE LK SUPERIOR WILL BE ICE COVERED BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 524 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 MIZ006-007-085-171300- ALGER-LUCE-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 524 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE SNOW BELTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY. A RETURN OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY FALL TO 20 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO 25 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT SNOW REPORTS TO OUR OFFICE ON OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER. MIZ001>005-009>014-084-171300- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-GOGEBIC- IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- 524 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A RETURN OF BITTERLY COLD AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS VALUES MAY FALL TO 25 BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND TO 30 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE SNOW BELTS EAST OF MARQUETTE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE. THE PUBLIC MAY ALSO SUBMIT SNOW REPORTS TO OUR OFFICE ON OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-171300- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 524 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEE THE LATEST LAKE SUPERIOR MARINE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-171300- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 524 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JLA
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Observers in Grand Marais measured 14 inches of lake effect snow over a 48-hour period.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 561877.