Drought in Louisiana, September 22 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
856 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OFF TO THE
EAST AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL TODAY. OTHER THAN ADDING IN
THE PATCHY FOG...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
MOIST NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS IN THE GTR/MEI/HBG AREA...WILL BE WATCHING
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z - RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI. LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 3 PM BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AS WELL. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...NEAR CALM WINDS AND OUR DRIER AIRMASS...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS BACK OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS WELL. THE 12Z
JAN SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT OF 1.67IN. OUR PWATS WILL DROP
BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY NOON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARM AND DRY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BACK OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AIDED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS AND LOWER 60 DEW POINTS LOOK TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWED
THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT TO THE ROCKIES TO
BAJA CORRIDOR. WE WILL START TO GET A WEAK SHEAR AXIS HOVERING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THUS EFFECTIVELY PROVIDING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THUS
CUTTING OFF THE GULF INFLOW FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS WE PUSH INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE WEAK SHEAR
AXIS WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN BACK
TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE CANADIAN AND GFS. MEANWHILE
THE EURO TRIES TO BRING THE MOISTURE BACK FROM THE EAST ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE FAST. SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS. THIS MOISTURE FROM THE EAST MAY GIVE THE REGION SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEYOND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMP WISE WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S...THEN WILL
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. NIGHTLY
LOWS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE IN THE 60S. /17/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  89  62  91 /   0   0   1   9
MERIDIAN      58  87  61  88 /   3   1   4  20
VICKSBURG     59  91  58  91 /   0   0   1   6
HATTIESBURG   62  88  64  90 /   4   2   5  29
NATCHEZ       62  87  61  90 /   0   1   1   7
GREENVILLE    60  89  59  91 /   0   0   1   4
GREENWOOD     58  87  58  89 /   0   0   1   6

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON-FRANKLIN-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
212 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

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