Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts near 50 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms moving through Saginaw Bay produced wind gusts near 50 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 12:05 PM EST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 105 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .AVIATION... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THEY WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST AFTER INITIATION LIKELY AFFECTING ALL THE AIRFIELDS IN SOME MANNER BEFORE DISSIPATING INVOF THE DETROIT METRO AREA NEAR SUNSET. IN THE MEANTIME, WSW WIND AROUND 10KTS WILL PERSIST WITH SCT- BKN LOW VFR. GRADIENT WILL EASE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE S DIRECTION. MVFR VARIETY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE CONDITIONAL ON MOISTURE DEPOSITED BY STORMS THIS AFTN. FOR DTW...TSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE METRO AREA. NONETHELESS...FORCING AND REMNANT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTORMS TO IMPACT THE AIRSPACE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, CIGS HAVE EXHIBITED A LOT OF VARIABILITY. EXPECT PRIMARILY AOA 6KFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR CU TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE THINNING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TSTORMS WILL IMPACT KDTW AIRSPACE MAINLY 20- 23Z. * LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 913 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 UPDATE... FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR PULSE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING MESOANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOB REVEAL VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 INTO THE AREA BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN OBSERVED MLCAPE OF 1100 J/KG ALREADY ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z DTX SOUNDING. SURFACE HEATING SUPPORTS FORECAST MLCAPE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2000 J/KG IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, EXPECT AT LEAST SCT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AS MID-LEVEL FORCING INCREASES. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR LOW END SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL EXIST AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FOR THE METRO AREA AND POINTS NORTH. HEIGHT RISES WILL GET UNDERWAY IN EARNEST THIS EVENING EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM CENTRAL LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST TO GRAND RAPIDS. THE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALONG A LEAD GRADIENT OF RICHER 850 TO 700MB THETA E CONTENT. FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS LEAD EDGE TO WASH EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS THE DEEPER AXIS OF MOISTURE IS LINED OUT PARALLEL TO THE SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW TRAJECTORIES. SPURIOUS AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF CELLS SUGGESTS THAT NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AT CLOUD TOP IS AN IMPORTANT DYNAMICAL REQUIREMENT FOR THE ELEVATED CONVECTION. HAVE MAINTAINED THE LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE THUMB EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPANDED FOR A SIZABLE PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 12Z. THERE IS NWP SIGNAL THAT TIMES THE ACTIVITY LOCAL TO THE CWA...DURING THE 12-18Z TIMEFRAME THERE IS A SUBSET OF THE SOLUTION SPACE THAT SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR UPSCALE GROWTH OR INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION. ATTM...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AND THE LOW CHANCE POP APPEARS ADEQUATE. ANY SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES THIS MORNING. PWATS WITHIN MOISTURE AXIS ARE APPROXIMATELY 1.6 INCHES...WITH SOME CELLS OVER FAR WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HAVING PRODUCED .5 TO .6 INCH OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND CENTRAL UNITED STATES HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE SHORTWAVE NOW SLIDING OVER THE FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN. NWP SUPPORTS THIS SHORTWAVE TO HOLD ITS OWN IN ADDITION TO A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING TOWARDS EVENING. FAVORABLE LATE AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE DCVA ALONG WITH QPF IN MODELS SUPPORTS A HIGH CHANCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21-03Z. MODELS SEEM TO BE SIDING ON A SOLUTION THAT SHOWS SOME INITIATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GENERATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS OR OUTFLOWS WOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. COULD ALSO BE LOOKING AT A SETUP WHERE LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. THERE IS USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHAT CAPE VALUES WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED SFC DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES FROM RAW OUTPUT VALUES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. FAVORED THE MEAN SREF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 2000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...CLIMBING TO 20-30 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WITH THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM MULTICELL ORGANIZATION. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 21-03Z WINDOW. LATEST SWODY1 HAS A MARGINAL DESIGNATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LONG TERM... THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL SETTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY AND SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THERMAL CONTRAST WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. CONSIDERING THE WEAK CHARACTER OF THE BULK SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES...THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE SURFACE PARCEL OF 89/68...FROM A COMBINATION OF MODEL OUTPUT AND MOS GUIDANCE...PUSHES SURFACE BASED CAPE TOWARD 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THAT LEAVES THE WIND PROFILE AS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE FOLDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A WAY AS TO PROVIDE A WEAK VEERING PROFILE WITH LESS THAN 20 KNOTS OF SPEED BELOW 500 MB AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THIS WILL SET UP A PULSE TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE THAT COULD PRODUCE A PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS SOUNDING PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER REACH 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING EXHAUSTS INSTABILITY AND BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE FULLY OVERHEAD DURING SUNDAY AND BETTER POSITIONED TO INHIBIT CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. PREFER TO SEE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE CUSTOMARY CAPPING VALUES OF 20C AT 850 MB AND 10C AT 700 MB FOR ADDED CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM IN UNIFORM LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY HOLD CONVECTION IN CHECK. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL INSTEAD SET UP FOR A RESPECTABLE ROUND OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINT NEAR 70 WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S REACHABLE. THE CURRENT WEST COAST UPPER LOW IS THEN SHOWN IN GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS TO REACH JAMES BAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR OUR AREA IN A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TIMING ON THE FRONT REACHING SE MICHIGAN RANGES FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A STALLED LOOK IN THE DATA THROUGH WEDNESDAY SUBJECT TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ON NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THEN. MARINE... SOUTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL MAKE CHOPPY WATER ON SAGINAW BAY AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT THE WIND TO DIMINISH AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER ALL MARINE AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND THEN MAINLY OVER LAND AREAS SUNDAY. WARM AIR WILL STREAM IN FOR SUNDAY ON MODEST SOUTHWEST WIND AND LEAD TO GREATER STABILITY OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW WAVES INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. INITIAL ESTIMATES ARE WEAK IN TERMS OF WIND BUT THE FRONT COULD CARRY THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && AVIATION.....JVC UPDATE.......JVC SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM....BT MARINE.......BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 448 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-150900- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 448 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TODAY STALLS NEARBY DURING SATURDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT YET PLANNED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-150900- LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 448 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE...AND THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER ALL MARINE AREAS AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS. MOTION WILL BE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TODAY STALLS NEARBY DURING SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT YET PLANNED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). BT
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 136 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:39 UTC.
3 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 598218, 598220, 598219.