Steady rain began near dawn on the 10th. By late afternoon, rain amounts over an inch were becoming common in northeast Kentucky.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
Steady rain began near dawn on the 10th. By late afternoon, rain amounts over an inch were becoming common in northeast Kentucky. Several small streams were still running well above normal before the rain even began. Minor flooding along small streams occurred in the usual flood prone areas along roads. Final rainfall totals by late night were mostly 1.1 to 1.4 inches.
The Little Sandy River crested higher than the previous week, cresting over its flood stage before dawn on the 11th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 10, 2:18 PM EST, 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
318 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FROM THE WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHEAST OH INTO THE NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN
WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD THREAT HAS LESSENED
SLIGHTLY IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL
SWING THROUGH. THEREFORE..WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP IN THAT
REGION AS WELL.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN SHIELD WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...SO WILL
INCREASE POPS THERE. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A BIT QUICKER EXODUS
LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL LOWER THE POPS QUICKER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES FORCES THE RAIN OUT OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. NO MAJOR CHANGES ON THE FRONT END OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST WITH POPS DECREASING QUICKLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA/TEXAS. THIS BRINGS THE NEXT SHIELD OF RAIN IN
FROM THE SOUTH. WAS CAREFUL NOT TO START THE PRECIPITATION TOO
QUICKLY...BUT STILL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE COMPARED TO THE MODELS AS
SYSTEMS FROM THE SOUTH ARE TYPICALLY TOO SLOW WITH THE ONSET.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BASIN WIDE RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH A
HALF TO THREE QUARTER INCH AMOUNT POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO ASSESS ANY FURTHER FLOOD THREAT BASED ON THE
REACTIONS TO THE AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVER TO THE RAINFALL
FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF TOWARDS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...AND
COULD CONTINUE TO AGGRAVATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION...A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
COLDER BUT DRIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED...AS SURFACE LOW
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR TO VFR FORECAST PRETTY MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
PRECIP SHIELD SPREADING NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
REACH FARTHER N ACROSS PKB...CKB AND EKN DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY. THE RAIN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH IFR AT
TIMES. WILL SEE HIGHER CIGS AND VSBY VALUES FROM THE S LATE IN THE
DAY...AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW BECOME LIGHT SE TOWARD DAWN AND THEN
LIGHT SW LATE IN THE DAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZES LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE SOGGY BL IN PLACE TONIGHT WILL CARRY A BIT LOWER
VSBY VALUES LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
COULD VARY..AND...ONCE DOWN...VALUES COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H M H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H L M M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H M H H M H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ075-076-083-
085>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.
&&
SYNOPSIS...KMC/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPYHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 105 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 OHZ066-067-084-111715- PERRY-MORGAN-VINTON- 105 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-076-083-085>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020- 024>040-046-047-111715- GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-MEIGS- GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV- WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN- RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS- HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER- UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH- 105 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2015 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FLOOD WATCH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Creeks overflowed and blocked roads. A few examples, included Georges Creek and Nats Creek.
Minor small stream flooding occurred during the evening hours on the 10th. The Little Sandy River crested at 21.6 feet around 0200E on the 11th at Grayson. Flood stage is 21 feet. A few roads remained blocked until near dawn.
Small streams, mostly in the southern part of the county, flooded roads during the evening hours on the 10th.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 554812, 554814, 554813.