Damaging Winds in Kentucky, June 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1024 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WELL DEFINED LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING
NORTHEAST AS THE OVERALL LINE SHIFTS EAST. CURRENTLY...CLOUD
COVER AND MID MORNING CONDITIONS ARE KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY PRETTY
TAME. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
FOR THIS EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS LINE
BEGINNING TO CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE MAIN EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT TO
FOLLOW IT. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY...THERE WILL BE
A GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT...HENCE WHY
SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK AND LOWERED THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIMITED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KY. THIS ALSO
LEAD TO A LESS CERTAINTY OF A HAIL THREAT AND FOR THE UPDATE TO
THE FORECAST...HAVE GONE WITH A GENERAL SEVERE MENTION TO THE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A NEW ZFP HAS
BEEN SENT OUT ALONG WITH THE GRIDS TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

READJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS THE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION HAS SLOWED UP AND IS JUST INCHING SOUTHWARD NOW. ITS
JUST ABOUT TO CROSS INTO FLEMING COUNTY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE AFTER 1 OR 2 PM. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP IS SPEEDING UP ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT NO NEED
TO ADJUST ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS ONSET SHOULD
STILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND TODAY...IT DOES LOOK LIKE ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE
TO BUILD THE INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE STORMS. THUS...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE THREAT MAY BE INCREASING FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS INDIANA...BUT HAS SENT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WITH NORTH WINDS INTERSECTING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SEGMENT OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY WON'T HAVE THE SAME
CONVERGENCE AS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THUS...NOT SURE WE WILL SEE
MUCH COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AS THIS BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
MORNING...BUT WE HAVE NOTED SOME WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOPS
UPSTREAM...SUGGESTING THE CLOUDS MAY GIVE WAY BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE
A KEY FACTOR TODAY...AS ANY SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE AREA TO
DESTABILIZE...AND BUILD INSTABILITY. THIS WILL IN TURN HELP TO
FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTS SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL WITH GOOD DYNAMICS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION. THUS...IT WON'T TAKE MUCH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A DECENT SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SEEING SOME CLEARING
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO WE CAN DESTABILIZE. HOWEVER...ASSUMING
THIS HAPPENS...HERE IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT... BULK SHEAR VALUES
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
SUPPORTING MORE LINEAR CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. THE LOW
LEVEL (0-3KM) SHEAR COMPONENT ALSO DOES NOT APPEAR WILL BE LINE
NORMAL...WHICH WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR QLCS TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE AND BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGE. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 10KFT...WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH...BUT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
CAN BUILD...LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...BUT COLD
FRONT MAY LAG BEHIND AND MAY NOT CROSS THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY.
THUS...THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AND WE MAY EVEN SEE A POP UP THUNDERSTORM ON
TUESDAY IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THUS...WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
CLOUD COVER COULD BE TRICKY...AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDS (IF ANY) WE SEE
POSTFRONTAL. FOR NOW...GOING TO GO MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 80
AND SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE AXIS OF A TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THAT TIME... A RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH RIDGING
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE A BROAD
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WESTERN US
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE NEARING THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THE INITIAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN US SOUTH TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT ON OUT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD...WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN A
BIT BECOMING CENTERED CLOSER TO THE BAJA OF CALIFORNIA AND BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PASS BY TO OUR NORTHERN MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE ALIGNED
WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KY FROM THU INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT COULD SAG SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE REGION AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ALSO...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS
GENERALLY HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE WORKING NORTH FROM THE GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE...BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND ROCKIES.

DRIER AIR WILL HAVE WORKED INTO THE REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY DOMINATE DURING THAT PERIOD...WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU REGION AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THU.
THEN... UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND WHETHER OR
NOT THERE IS MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AT NIGHT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HOW CLOSE THE FRONTAL ZONE IS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH BOTH OF THESE FEATURES.

THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD COME ON THURSDAY...BEFORE
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND DIURNAL RANGES MAY BE
LIMITED LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE ARE SOME BIG AVIATION CONCERNS. FIRST...WINDS WILL
TURN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SECOND CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION SO
HAVE NARROWED IN THE TIME RANGE IN THE TAFS WITH A 3 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORMS...A PERIOD
OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. ALONG WITH THESE ISSUES...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEPART AND WEAKEN...AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091715-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS
OR LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KAS/JP/SHALLENBERGER