Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, June 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1119 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY BREEZE TODAY. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SINKS TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...UPDATED POP GRIDS USING A MIX OF HRRR AND 12Z
NAM. TRIED TO SHOW TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED POPS...FIRST WITH THE
LINE CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN CWA...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
TIED TO THE UPPER VORT MAX FOR LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALSO ADDED GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN MENTION TO WEATHER GRIDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARDS AND THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GOOD
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH HEATING TODAY. SOME OF THESES
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AS CAPE AND MOISTURE INCREASES...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT. FRONT EXITS THE AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITING...DYNAMIC FORCING ALSO DEPARTS
LEAVING ONLY A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND A COLDER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS DROPPING IN
THE 4-6C RANGE. THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN FOR MID WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
STALL THERE...WELL NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. KEEP THE POPS
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF TIERS OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE PBZ CWA
BORDER.

AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AFTER TUESDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20C...SUGGESTING SURFACE READINGS
IN THE LOWLANDS WILL REACH THE 90F MARK. THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. IF RAINFALL COVERAGE/AMOUNTS ARE NOT
VERY GOOD TODAY...THE DRY GROUND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL HEATING
REQUIRING HIGHER VALUES IN THE MAX FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED. LITTLE CHANGES WERE
MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PATTERN WILL FEATURE SERIES OF
WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. AS MOISTURE INCREASES
AGAIN...IT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS TODAY.
MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THEM. MVFR TO IFR CONVECTION WILL COVER MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY
ON TODAY.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN POST RAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-090730-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
328 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXISTS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1236 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

WVZ007-008-081700-
MASON-JACKSON-
1236 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MASON AND CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 1235 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POINT
PLEASANT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POINT PLEASANT...RIPLEY...RAVENSWOOD...SANDYVILLE...LEON...LETART...
COTTAGEVILLE...EVANS...MOUNT ALTO AND LEROY.

LAT...LON 3900 8153 3896 8155 3892 8150 3889 8153
      3879 8152 3873 8208 3884 8213 3893 8190
      3887 8190 3888 8188 3890 8185 3893 8184
      3895 8182 3892 8177 3894 8176 3896 8178
      3898 8177 3904 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 248DEG 37KT 3878 8203

WOLFE