A slow moving thunderstorm produced flash flooding on Robinson Creek in Pike County during the evening of June 3, 2015.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A slow moving thunderstorm produced flash flooding on Robinson Creek in Pike County during the evening of June 3, 2015.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 3, 2:09 PM EST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 309 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS DOMINATED OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT EAST AND SHOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DRIFTS AWAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL NUDGE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH SHOWER MOVEMENT WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE SHOWER THREAT WILL END TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO DRIFT ONLY VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR THE VA BORDER ON THURSDAY. AS WILL BE THE CASE TODAY...ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END DURING THE EVENING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EARLY ON...THE SOUTHEAST TROUGH OPENS UP AND RETREATS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TEMPORARILY...BUT BE HINDERED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIPPING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGING THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE FURTHER IMPACTED BY A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER AND STRONGER WITH THIS NORTHERN TROUGH THAN THE 12Z GEM AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...THE ECMWF HAS MORE OF AN IMPACT FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS ITS TROUGH 5H AXIS AND ENERGY PASS THROUGH THE STATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES SHOW SOME ENERGY RIDING EAST FROM A TROUGH OVER THE WASATCH RANGE AND POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND...SLIPPING SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHILE ITS NORTHERN TROUGH WOULD NOT AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THAT POINT...THE ECMWF IS CONCENTRATING ON A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION...AS A RESULT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND THE ECMWF EARLIER ON. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE WARMER AND MORE SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS A CONCERN LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES. THE OLD ECMWF PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON MONDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUT DRIER WEATHER TO FOLLOW IN THE FRONT/S WAKE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH...AS EVEN WEDNESDAY IT KEEPS ANY REDEVELOPMENT AND RETURN FLOW CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. BY CONTRAST THE GFS WOULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE A LULL SETS IN AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT THAT WOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS PRESSES SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAKING FOR A DRY REST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN QUESTION HAD TO CARRY SMALL CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY TIMES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...TOO. OTHERWISE...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CURVE SHOULD DOMINATE THE POP CHANCES AWAY FROM ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL FOR THE UNCERTAIN SITUATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP AND SKY FIELDS TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...MORE SIMILAR TO THE 12 GFS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...AND THE LATEST GFS. ALSO TWEAKED LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WITH MORE OF A TERRAIN BASED DIFFERENCE IN THE LOWS IN MIND THAN REPRESENTED BY THE SUPERBLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 209 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS CONTROLLED OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS DRIFTING SOUTH...AND IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE COVERED EASTERN KY ARE ERODING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST WINDS OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS A RESULT DO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO LIFT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN ALL AREAS EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED OVER VA AND TN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING A TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON IS VERY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE SJS AND JKL TAFS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF THE OTHER TAFS. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DO EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO MVFR OR IFR LATER TONIGHT. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES THURSDAY MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...SBH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 351 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO... JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD... IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON... MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG... BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN... SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON... SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE... JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD... MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN... ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON 351 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SBH/GREIF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 655 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 KYZ110-120-032330- FLOYD-PIKE- 655 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FLOYD...PIKE... AT 654 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BOLDMAN...OR NEAR PIKEVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... PIKEVILLE...COAL RUN VILLAGE...BOLDMAN...COAL RUN...HONAKER... OSBORN...BLUE MOON...GRETHEL AND ALUBA. && LAT...LON 3753 8247 3743 8259 3753 8277 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 132DEG 14KT 3753 8260 HAL
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:12 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Approximately 6 inches of water was flowing across Robinson Creek Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 582701.