Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, June 26, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND STORMS THURSDAY PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DID UPDATE GRIDS AND GRIDS SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH THE T/TD GRIDS AND TO REMOVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT BUT THE SITUATION SEEMS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO MORE OF
A HYDRO ISSUE...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON STORMS UPSTREAM.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING...WITH MOST OF THEM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZED HAIL...AND THIS REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST HAS ALREADY SET IN AT JKL DUE TO THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THIS EVENING...SO HAVE ADDED IN PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS SINCE THE CAP IS
NOW BROKEN. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ADJUST T/TD
GRIDS TO ALIGN THEM WITH RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
 AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT
THIS DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.

TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP AT LEAST VCTS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT. ALSO GIVEN ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MORE OVERNIGHT MANY SITES WILL ALSO SEE POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOWER VIS DURING CONVECTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE A LULL AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT UNDER STORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...DJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
414 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STORM DAMAGE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

KAS/SHALLENBERGER/RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ113-115-260330-
KNOTT-PERRY-
1105 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KNOTT...PERRY...

AT 1104 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER FISTY...OR NEAR
HAZARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HINDMAN...VICCO...EMMALENA...BEARVILLE...RITCHIE...SMITHSBORO...
WISCOAL...BULAN...SPIDER...ELIC...CARRIE...CORDIA...LITTCARR...
IVIS...CODY...SASSAFRAS...TALCUM...MALLIE...DIRK AND ANCO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 8307 3735 8321 3741 8313 3728 8287
      3719 8299 3719 8301 3718 8301 3717 8304
      3715 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 315DEG 19KT 3734 8313

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1225 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KYZ084-085-260515-
WHITLEY-MCCREARY-
1225 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WHITLEY...MCCREARY...

AT 1225 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HUXLEY...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORBIN...GROVE...CLIO...DEERING...RYE...YOUNGS CREEK...BARK CAMP...
BARTON...FABER...WALDEN AND NORTH CORBIN.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 8438 3694 8436 3694 8430 3696 8427
      3697 8426 3696 8426 3694 8424 3695 8422
      3696 8422 3694 8416 3696 8415 3696 8410
      3679 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 286DEG 9KT 3692 8432

HAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KYZ079-080-260615-
PULASKI-LAUREL-
141 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PULASKI...LAUREL...

AT 140 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER BUNCH...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LONDON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONDON...DORTHAE...SUBLIMITY CITY...VOX...LILY...BUNCH...HIGHTOP...
LONDON-CORBIN AIRPORT...KEAVY...ROCKCASTLE SPRINGS AND NORTH CORBIN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 29 AND
39.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 8412 3696 8413 3702 8438 3710 8436
      3713 8405 3698 8407 3697 8407 3696 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 269DEG 20KT 3706 8425

KAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KYZ068-079-080-083-260745-
PULASKI-ROCKCASTLE-WAYNE-LAUREL-
312 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PULASKI...ROCKCASTLE...
WAYNE...LAUREL...

AT 312 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STANFORD TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
MAGNUM TO 9 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...MOUNT VERNON...PULASKI...BRODHEAD...SCIENCE
HILL...BURNSIDE...PULASKI COUNTY PARK...OTTOWA...HAZEL PATCH...
NAOMI...BENT...CABELL...BERNSTADT...MILL SPRINGS...WELLHOPE...
ORLANDO...QUAIL...MAGNUM AND KIDDER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND
65.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PULASKI COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 17 AND
40.
 LOUIS B. NUNN PARKWAY

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 8496 3696 8494 3695 8490 3700 8484
      3705 8491 3712 8490 3736 8456 3733 8451
      3748 8444 3726 8408 3695 8440 3692 8447
      3681 8503 3683 8506 3686 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 315DEG 34KT 3746 8458 3724 8480 3711 8548

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 AM     HAIL             RACCOON                 37.49N 82.44W
06/26/2015  M0.25 INCH       PIKE               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-116-260830-
PULASKI-CLAY-ROCKCASTLE-WHITLEY-WAYNE-JACKSON-KNOX-MCCREARY-LAUREL-
349 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PULASKI...CLAY...
ROCKCASTLE...WHITLEY...WAYNE...JACKSON...KNOX...MCCREARY...LAUREL...

AT 348 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DONARO TO MOUNT VICTORY TO MILL SPRINGS...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONDON...MONTICELLO...MOUNT VERNON...CORBIN...BURNSIDE...DORTHAE...
VOX...HAZEL PATCH...DONARO...BUSH...BLACKWATER...MOORE HILL...BENT...
PARROT...BERTHA STATION...JEP HILL...WELCHBURG...EMMANUEL...
CHESTNUTBURG AND PORTERSBURG.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 17.
 INTERSTATE 75 IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND
62.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN PULASKI COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 33 AND
40.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN KNOX COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 26.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 25 EAST IN LAUREL COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 2.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 8374 3690 8389 3674 8448 3691 8496
      3703 8448 3743 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 287DEG 31KT 3737 8423 3704 8437 3693 8476

KAS