A warm front lifted through during the morning of the 2nd with only a few showers. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms formed in the lower Ohio River Valley and moved quickly east into northeast Kentucky during the evening hours. These rounds continued into the morning of the 3rd, before a lull in the early and mid afternoon. Rain totals of 1.25 to 1.5 inches were common by midday on the 3rd.
Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved across during the evening hours. This was ahead of a low pressure wave along a strong cold front. Dew points were in the upper 50s with temperatures in the low and mid 60s The evening convection was elongated along the flow in Lawrence County with rain rates of a half inch to an inch in less than an hour. The headwaters of the Little Fork, a tributary of the Little Sandy River also was hit by this rain. This water flowed north and caused flooding in Carter County.
Rain totals in a 24 to 30 hour time span were on the order of 3 to 4 inches in Lawrence County. The mesonet gauge at Louisa went from a total of 1.4 inches of rain at midday on the 3rd, to a total near 4 inches by 2000E. Their event rain total was 4.2 inches. The heaviest 5 minute rate was around 2 tenths of an inch during the evening. Flooding along the smaller streams was common. In its wake, flooding of the larger streams lingered into the 4th.
A major federal disaster was declared in Kentucky. It included Lawrence and Carter Counties in the initial declaration. The disaster also encompassed the flooding during the 14th and 15th of the month. See FEMA DR-4217 for more information.