Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 24, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
249 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 WILL CONTINUE AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AND POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS AN AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
STILL HOT...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES WEAKER AND DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND THE OLD FRONT LIFTING INTO NEBRASKA TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE BOTH MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND WITH WEAK
NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

MODELS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT APPEARS TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AGAIN AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IN NEBRASKA AND
SETTLES SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM COLORADO
LATE IN THE DAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE SO THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS
ROUND.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING BEHIND IT
OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THESE MAIN UPPER FEATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...BUT THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL MID
WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SYSTEM...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH MCK AND GLD WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE ARE ALREADY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER ABOUT 21Z.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER AREA NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEBRASKA IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE GREATER AROUND
THE MCK AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1041 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1041 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. A COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.