During the evening law enforcement estimated wind gusts of 90 MPH from a severe thunderstorm near Tribune. No damage was reported from these winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
During the evening law enforcement estimated wind gusts of 90 MPH from a severe thunderstorm near Tribune. No damage was reported from these winds. This same thunderstorm brought rapid, heavy rainfall to western parts of the county. Law enforcement officers reported water over Highway 96 from Horace to Tribune. Rainfall totals a mile or two west of Tribune ranged from 1.10 inches to 1.86 inches, with estimated rainfall amounts close to three inches between Horace and the county line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 5:14 PM MST, 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 614 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND THE LOW TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH... GUSTING TO 20 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE DENVER METRO WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ALOFT...DRY AIR IS PASSING THROUGH ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER WEST COLORADO WITH SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ROCKIES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...PRESENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VERY DRY AIR ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/SOUNDING PROFILES REFLECT AN UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR STORMS. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CURRENT CONVECTION OVER COLORADO TRANSITIONS EAST THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY MAKING IT TO THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SLOWLY CREEP NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD BECOME NOTICEABLE BY TOMORROW MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY AIR REMAINING AT THE SURFACE... CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE. SBCAPE NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM... 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS AND FAVORABLE WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION AS COLD POOLS DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LIES EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT TOMORROW WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...EVEN WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES...DO NOT PRESENTLY EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REACH/EXCEED 105 DEGREES...THE CRITERIA FOR HEAT ADVISORIES. WILL CONTINUE THIS MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW WITHOUT AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL TIMING/POSITION AND ITS AFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA. WEAKER AND SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET/GFS WERE A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF/NAM. THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST WITH THE SURFACE WIND PRESSURE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE JET/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT IS. MOST OUTPUT WOULD SUPPORT WEAK RIGHT QUADRANT OVER THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OF THE HALF THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH THE EVENING. LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT BECOMES MORE INTERESTING. COLD FRONT STARTS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THAT ALONG WITH LINGERING WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT COULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF THROUGH THE NIGHT SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...MAIN JET AXIS STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE FRINGE AREAS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD. FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT AREA TO BE THE HOTTEST AND GRADUAL COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHWEST YOU GO BUT MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE COOLER AIR ARRIVE UNTIL THE NIGHT. SO WENT NEAR TO THE WARMER GUIDANCE. THE NIGHT PERIOD LOOKS POTENTIALLY WET...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF. ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT IS NOT TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PROGGED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH. MEAN FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS. SO A CONTINUE REGENERATION OF STORMS THAT CONGEAL INTO A MCS...SOME MODELS DO SHOW A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING DURING THIS TIME. SO RAISED POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST HALF. THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HWO WAS UPDATED FOR THIS. SUNDAY...MAIN JET IS STILL NORTH OF THE AREA BUT IS CLOSER THAN IT WAS THE PREVIOUS DAY. CONVECTION THAT STARTED DURING THE NIGHT LOOKS TO BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STARTS MOVING ACROSS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IN PLACE. WANTED TO DIVIDE THE DAY INTO MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SINCE IT IS DAY THREE LEFT IT ALONE FOR NOW. DUE TO UPSLOPE...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A COOLER AIR MASS...I LOWERED MAXES A LITTLE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...JET/RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STAYS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE MID LEVEL FLOW. INITIALLY DIFFERENCES ARE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY HOW FAST THEY DEVELOP THE NEXT WESTERN TROUGH AND BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA AND TAP INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE WAVES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME AM THINKING THE GFS IS BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN TOO MUCH WITH THE STRONGER RIDGE OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF FOR THAT AND OVERALL A BETTER POSITION OF ALL FEATURES IN A MORE REASONABLE POSITION CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS TENDS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLES. DIFFUSE/WEAK SURFACE WIND PATTERN SHOWN OVER THE AREA IN THE BEGINNING. AFTER FIRST FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH...MODELS BRING WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN EITHER WASH IT OUT OR WAFFLE IT BACK AND FORTH OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME A NEW LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA...MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. SO SAYING ALL THAT IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DETAILS ON THIS FORECAST. AS A RESULT AM CONTENT WITH WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME...ESPECIALLY FOR POPS. THE INIT GAVE ME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SUBTLE DETAILS THAT WILL HAVE MAJOR AFFECTS ON THE FORECAST. THE INIT DID HAVE THURSDAY DRY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THAT CHANGED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 610 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND MCK. HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAF FOR NOW SINCE IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...BULLER AVIATION...LOCKHART
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 255 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-172100- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 255 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 104 ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO COLBY AND GOVE KANSAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:33 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported on Highway 96 from Horace to Tribune. With higher rainfall amounts to the west of this report area roads also had flooding in low lying areas.
Along with the wind, 1.10 inches of rain was measured with pea size hail falling briefly.
An estimated 90 MPH wind gust was reported with the severe thunderstorm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 591623, 589250, 589249.