D2 Severe Drought continued across Northwest Kansas, impacting locations from Sherman to Thomas county on south. 43 inches above normal across Northwest Kansas, with the majority of the reports above normal.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
D2 Severe Drought continued across Northwest Kansas, impacting locations from Sherman to Thomas county on south. Precipitation amounts ranged from 0.22 inches below normal to 0.43 inches above normal across Northwest Kansas, with the majority of the reports above normal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF -RW IN ALL AREAS...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS FROPA STARTING TO OCCUR. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR WINDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTED A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED CUT OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BROUGHT IN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN FRONT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT...OVERCAST SKIES WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH RADAR RETURNS INDICATING AREAS OF RAIN/SNOW MIXES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WHICH WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH CLOUD COVER REDUCING NOCTURNAL COOLING. ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFIES AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 40 KT LOWER LEVEL JET WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE TRI STATE AREA WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION WILL END DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION...LIKELY SNOW BASED ON THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURES...LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. MORE DETAILS LISTED BELOW ON TIMING...POTENTIAL AMOUNTS AND FORECAST CONCERNS. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS TO THE NORTH BUT FEEL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY. THIS IS BECAUSE...AS WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION BEGIN TIME PROBLEM...THERE IS A LAYER OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD AID IN PRECIPITATION EVAPORATION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS BUT DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS FOR THE WARMING TREND...FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES ALOFT REBOUND QUITE NICELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY...FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT CIRRUS SHOULD MOVE IN WHICH WOULD LIMIT MIXING AND HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. MADE A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN BY IGNORING RECENT COOL FORECAST BIAS AND SIDING MORE DIRECTLY WITH GUIDANCE. LESS CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEATHER BECOMES INTERESTING TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FIRST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...DENSE STRATUS SHOULD MOVE IN AND KEEP THINGS QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING. IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT AND COLD WEATHER...A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASSES THROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM THE MOUNTAINS IN WYOMING AND COLORADO ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FRONTOGENESIS ALSO INCREASES AS THIS TROUGH PASSES. FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BUT THE LARGE...MOST CRITICAL QUESTION ON SNOW ACCUMULATION REMAINS. THE GFS IS INDICATING PRECIPITATION (LIQUID) AMOUNTS AS HIGH ONE HALF INCH OVER OUR AREA...UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FURTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MUCH LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA...FORECASTING ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND UP TO TWO TENTHS FURTHER NORTH. THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING AND AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RATCHETED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST RUNS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE TO VERIFY...HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS...GREATER THAN 3 INCHES AND POSSIBLY 6 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS...WOULD OCCUR. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS SO SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE MADE FOR THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. BEYOND THE ACTIVE WEATHER...ANOTHER DRY SPELL WITH A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE BUST THURSDAY DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1028 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/IFR MIX AS CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM OVC005-015 WITH VISIBILITY RANGING 2-6SM IN SN/BLOWING SNOW AS FRONT TRAVERSES REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR WITH -SHSN AND OVC015-025. BY 18Z SUN...VFR WITH BKN050 BECM FEW050. WINDS NORTHERLY 15-30KTS THRU 00Z THEN NW AROUND 10KTS. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...JN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 253 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-012200- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 253 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. NEW SNOWFALL AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. A STRONG WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW RESIDES NORTH OF A LINE FROM YUMA COLORADO TO GOODLAND TO GOVE KANSAS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT ANY SNOW REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation during the month ranged from 0.22 inches below normal to 0.43 inches above normal across the county.
Precipitation during the month ranged from 0.19 inches above normal to 0.41 inches above normal across the county.
D2 Severe Drought continued across the county.
Precipitation during the month ranged from 0.02 inches above normal to 0.35 inches above normal across the county.
Precipitation during the month ranged from 0.29 inches above normal to 0.30 inches above normal across the county.
Precipitation during the month ranged from 0.03 inches below normal to 0.20 inches above normal across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 559854, 559856, 559858, 559853, 559855, 559857.